Last Chance for LDP to Restore Political Capital Squandered by Ishiba

Following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's announcement of his intent to resign, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) called an election to replace him as party president. 

Five candidates have thrown their hats into the ring. Until election day on October 4, they will be engaged in heated debate. They are vying for 590 votes: 295 votes from LDP Diet members and 295 votes from local chapters of the party. Those local chapters represent 915,000 party members and supporters across the country.

The LDP is facing an emergency situation in this presidential election. Although it is the ruling party, it lost its majorities in both the lower and upper chambers of the Diet in the last two elections.

Nonetheless, the opposition parties have become more diverse and unable to agree on basic policies. Consequently, the new president of the LDP is likely to become the leading candidate to replace Ishiba as prime minister. 

To begin with, though, LDP lawmakers, party members, and supporters are responsible for allowing Ishiba to win the party presidential election last September 2024. That decision has caused stagnation and confusion in national politics.

Poor governance led to disastrous defeats for the LDP in the Lower House, Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, and Upper House elections. But even after the public opinion decisively rejected "Ishiba politics," as evidenced in the results of the July Upper House election, the Prime Minister sought to cling to power. That only resulted in further confusion.

Have a Sense of Crisis 

In the presidential election, the LDP needs to choose someone who has the ability to run the government and deftly manage foreign and national security affairs. That individual should possess the insight to humbly follow the will of the people as expressed in the election results.

Otherwise, the LDP will continue to lose the support of the Japanese people. In that case, it should prepare for the day when it is not a given that the LDP president will inevitably be chosen as prime minister.

This is the LDP's last chance to restore the political stability lost under the Ishiba administration. In debates, each of the five candidates should talk about the direction he or she proposes to take the nation. The country needs a sense of how he or she would deal with the opposition parties, including exploring a new coalition framework.

The question is whether the party can use the presidential election as an opportunity to recover from its current stagnation. 

New Conservative Parties are the Competition

The ruling party lost its majority in the national elections because conservatives and young people who had supported the LDP abandoned them. Instead, in large numbers, they cast their votes for the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the Sanseito.

LDP's proportional representation in the July Upper House election was down 5.45 million votes compared to the 2022 election. There is also the question of who would be the political leader best equipped to regain this lost support. Simply changing the face of the party will not improve its prospects. 

In its platform, the LDP proclaims its goal of "establishing a Japan that is truly Japanese." It also positions itself as a "conservative party." However, the policies it favors cannot be carried out without the cooperation of opposition parties. 

Nevertheless, there are some things the LDP must do before holding talks with the opposition parties. It must show respect for the traditions shaped by the Japanese people and once again raise the banner of conservatism, which stands for gradual reform rather than shallow revolution.

LDP lawmakers, party members, and supporters should also bear in mind that a major change has occurred in the structure of Japanese politics. In the past, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the left-leaning former Democratic Party's successor, was the choice of many voters critical of the LDP. However, that is no longer true today.

Both conservatives and young people have found a home in the opposition parties that are not left-leaning. The LDP has no future unless it responds to the dissatisfaction of these conservatives and young people. It cannot simply try to cater to liberals and the elderly.

Defense in a Dangerous Region

The next prime minister may have to deal with an emergency situation far beyond his or her party's own strength.

China is stepping up military pressure with the aim of annexing Taiwan. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned that a "Taiwan emergency is a Japan emergency." Concerningly, the day of such a crisis seems fast approaching. Meanwhile, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China, Russia, and North Korea have been strengthening their strategic cooperation.

Japan absolutely must take measures to strengthen its own defense capabilities to contain contingencies in Taiwan or the Korean Peninsula. Candidates who do not speak out clearly about defense issues should be disqualified. We need a leader who has the mettle and ability to act forcefully as prime minister to protect the nation and its people in the event of an emergency, but who also has what it takes to prevent emergencies.

Japan must not repeat the mistakes of Prime Minister Ishiba, who neglected to maintain close communication with the president of the United States, our ally. A strong relationship of trust with US President Donald Trump is essential so that our nations can face any crisis side by side.

Carrying the Conservative Flag

Economic policies are also important. That is especially true for measures to combat rising prices, an issue which is of great concern to the public. 

Without economic growth and wage increases, people's lives will not improve. That is also key to increasing spending on national security and social security. Candidates need to be able to explain in concrete terms how they would tackle these problems. 

There is also the issue of constitutional revision. The number of Lower House members supporting constitutional reform is less than the required two-thirds majority for a Diet proposal. However, in the Upper House, the necessary two-thirds is present. That is because of the seats picked up by the DPP and Sanseito in the July election. It therefore seems an opportune time to advance discussions on constitutional reform in the Upper House. 

A stable imperial succession policy is crucial to maintain the very foundation of the nation. We want each of the candidates to promise to implement the government advisory report on imperial succession. Those recommendations are based on the most important principle of the imperial line ー male line succession.

RELATED:

• Who Will Lead the LDP, Media Darling or Conservative Standard-Bearer?
• Why the LDP Lost the Election — and Still Doesn't Get It
• Japan's Floundering Politics Need Shinzo Abe's Legacy

(Read the editorial in Japanese.)

Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun