Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi (right) and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito before their meeting. October 10, at the National Diet Building (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna).
On October 10, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito informed Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Sanae Takaichi that his party would withdraw from the ruling party coalition. That decision ended a partnership that began in 1999 and had helped stabilize Japanese politics for over 25 years.
The split followed an impasse over political funding reforms and signals an uncertain transition. However, it also underlines the LDP's continuing centrality in Japan's governing order.
A Pragmatic Alliance
The LDP–Komeito alliance was born of necessity. In the late 1990s, the LDP's parliamentary grip had weakened. Partnering with Komeito, whose disciplined, Soka Gakkai-rooted voter base could reliably mobilize support, offered a path back to workable majorities.
For Komeito, the deal provided influence far beyond its total seat count. By joining the government, it could shape policy outcomes while protecting core principles such as social welfare and clean governance.
Over the following decades, the relationship proved durable and often productive. The coalition governed through the political turbulence of the 2000s, survived the LDP's 2009 defeat, and returned to power in 2012 under Shinzo Abe.
The partnership's durability rested on reciprocal advantages: Komeito supplied votes and a reputation for grassroots discipline. The LDP provided the political muscle to enact far-reaching reforms and to deliver Japan's long-term strategic orientation.
Policy Tradeoffs
Policy records show the tradeoffs. Komeito repeatedly pushed the coalition toward more socially oriented measures. Most notably, in 2020, the party forced the government to replace a limited relief package with a universal ¥100,000 JPY ($650 USD) cash payment during the COVID-19 emergency.
Its insistence on softening consumption-tax impacts also shaped the coalition's fiscal choices. Komeito successfully argued for exemptions and mitigations when the tax rose to 10%.
Conversely, the LDP drove economic liberalization, corporate-friendly regulatory adjustments, and a firmer national security posture. It was LDP leadership that advanced the Abenomics stimulus and structural reform agenda after 2012, and that steered Japan toward closer defense ties with partners such as the United States.
One of the coalition's defining moments of compromise came in 2015, when Komeito, despite internal resistance and voter unease, voted with the LDP to pass security legislation enabling limited collective self-defense. The vote illustrated both Komeito's willingness to temper its principles for coalition stability and the LDP's ability to shepherd contentious but strategic policy through parliament with Komeito's backing.
Deep-Seated Rifts
Still, fault lines persisted. Komeito's base consistently blocked or softened LDP initiatives on constitutional revision and national security, complicating reform efforts.
More recently, the relationship has been strained over governance standards and money in politics. Komeito pressed the LDP for full fact-finding into the so-called factional party-fund irregularities and for stricter caps and reporting on corporate and organizational donations. The LDP, long reliant on party and factional fundraising networks, resisted sweeping restrictions that it viewed as undercutting political organization and campaign capacity.
That disagreement proved decisive in 2025. Komeito's demands for transparent accounting and tighter regulation collided with deep resistance inside the LDP. Mediations in early October failed to bridge the positions, and Saito notified Takaichi that Komeito would withdraw and would not back her in the upcoming vote for prime minister.
However, Komeito's parliamentary standing has been weakening. In the July 2025 House of Councillors election, the party won just eight of its contested seats (down from 27 in the previous contest). This left it with 21 seats after the vote, a notable erosion of its cushion and bargaining power.
A Test of Strength
For the LDP, the immediate task is practical: build new majorities on a vote-by-vote basis. The party still controls the largest share of seats and retains the country's most extensive organizational apparatus, strengths that matter in Japan's party-centered system.
Expect the LDP to pursue ad-hoc alliances with smaller parties, lean on internal discipline to pass routine measures, and negotiate issue-based cooperation where necessary. Politically, the party will emphasize governance continuity and policy delivery to reassure voters that stability need not collapse with the coalition's end.
Komeito, by contrast, faces the challenge of re-establishing its independent identity without the institutional levers of government. Leaving the coalition allows it to press reformist and centrist appeals more bluntly. However, it must now demonstrate electoral viability beyond the safety of guaranteed cabinet posts and policy concessions.
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Author: Daniel Manning
