Shigeru Ishiba before speaking in a press conference at the LDP HQ in Nagatacho on October 28 following the Lower House election. (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)
It was a difficult election night for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 27. The ruling party lost a significant number of seats in the general election for the Lower House of Parliament, dropping from 256 to 191. Even with the added 24 seats of its coalition partner, Komeito, the result fell short of the 233 seats needed for a majority in the Lower House.
This marks the first time since 2009 that the LDP and its coalition partner, the Buddhist lay group Komeito, failed to secure a majority in the Lower House. By comparison, the LDP won 256 seats in the 2021 election, gaining the majority even without entering a coalition. The Lower House is regarded as the more consequential lawmaking body of Japan’s two parliamentary houses.
Following the October 27 election, parties on different ends of the political spectrum are expected to scramble to form new coalitions. Depending on the outcome, one of these coalitions will put forward a new candidate for prime minister and form a new government. It opens the door to an uncertain time in Japanese politics. As of publication, it's unclear whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his administration will still lead the government in the coming months.
A key factor in the LDP's loss was the continuing controversy surrounding the LDP's political funds reporting scandal. As PM Ishiba, who also heads the LDP, said in an interview with NHK on October 27, "The result is a clear condemnation of the politics and money problem, and we need to respond to the call of the people."
Ruling Coalition Sees A Disappointing Result
There are 465 seats in the Lower House, and all of them were up for grabs.
As the results started trickling in on the evening of October 27, it was striking to see entire regions like Hokkaido turn all blue. That color represented candidates of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), instead of the LDP. Nippon Ishin no Kai, also known as the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) continued its 2021 trend of performing well in the Kansai area.
Among the election trends, losses from the LDP stood out the most. Many key LDP members lost their seats, including former Olympic Minister Tamayo Marukawa. Three incumbent Cabinet members also lost in their home districts. They include Agriculture Minister Yasuhiro Kozato, Reconstruction Minister Tadahiko Ito, and Justice Minister Hideki Makihara.
On the other hand, some former LDP members who ran without affiliation following the political funds scandal were elected anyway. Koichi Hagiuda, a former [Shinzo] Abe faction member, won in his home district of Hachioji.
Komeito, the LDP coalition partner, also saw disappointing results. Party leader Keiichi Ishii had just taken his position in mid-September. On October 27, however, he failed to be elected in his district. The number of Komeito seats in the Diet dropped to 24, compared to 32 seats won in the last general election.
Opposition Parties in Flux
Cumulatively, the opposition parties increased their seats, giving them a collective majority in the Lower House. However, most of those parties are not part of an opposition coalition at this time.
The biggest winner of the night was the CDPJ, which won 148 seats. This represented a 50-seat increase from the 2021 general election, where CDPJ won only 98 seats. The result was seen as a positive nod to Yoshihiko Noda, who won the party's leadership election on September 23. A veteran politician, Noda served as prime minister during a brief opposition government from 2011 to 2012.
Noda commented to NHK in the early morning of October 28 that the result was a vote of confidence in the party. "Our aim was for the LDP coalition to lose its majority. So in those terms, I think we have achieved a big result."
The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) also achieved significant gains, quadrupling its seats from 7 to 28.
Nippon Ishin no Kai, was the third-largest party to gain seats, at 38. However, the party slightly dropped its seat count from the 2021 result, when they won 44 seats. This was interpreted as representing continued difficulty in gaining support outside the Osaka region.
Many small parties on both sides of the political spectrum also increased their seats. Reiwa Shinsengumi, an anti-establishment left-wing party founded by Taro Yamamoto tripled its seats to 9. The Conservative Party of Japan, founded by Naoki Hyakuta, won seats for the first time, bringing its total count to three. The Japanese Communist Party lost two seats compared to the last elections, totaling eight winning MPs.
Demographic Data
The number of women elected was the highest in history. Seventy-three women were voted in, an increase of 28 compared to the 2021 general election.
Political disaffection has been a recurring problem in Japanese elections, as reflected by a poor turnout rate on October 27. According to NHK, the turnout was projected to be 53.8% of eligible voters, two points lower than in 2021 when it was 55.9%.
This data suggests that voting behavior in 2024 was pushed less by younger voters coming to the polling stations, and more by headwinds facing the LDP.
An Unusual Election
Ishiba called for the election immediately after he was elected Prime Minister on October 1, making it the shortest election period in the postwar era.
It followed his selection as party leader only days earlier on September 27, after four previous unsuccessful attempts. He had centered his messaging around "renewing the party," and "protecting the people of Japan."
The election result will affect the LDP's executive positions as several members take responsibility for the party's disappointing result. Among them, popular LDP member Shinjiro Koizumi announced his resignation as election committee chair on the morning of October 28.
The Challenges of Forming a Coalition
Ishiba's future hangs in the balance, with the central question being whether his administration can survive the political turmoil.
Following certification of the election results, the National Diet will hold a special session to vote on a prime minister. Power dynamics within and between parties are expected to dominate those discussions.
In a press conference on October 28, Ishiba expressed his wish to continue as prime minister. He said he intended to negotiate with other parties to find an agreement on common policies while balancing the fact that the LDP was still the largest party in the Lower House. Ishiba also highlighted the urgency of approving crucial economic policy measures across party lines.
For their part, Ishin no Kai and CDPJ party leaders have stated that they would not consider joining a coalition government with the LDP. DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki was asked about this in a press conference early on October 28. He responded that he had not been approached by the LDP and Komeito to join a coalition.
Uncertainty Ahead
Sunday's election result opens a period of uncertainty for Japanese politics, and the tension among commentators is already palpable.
Mitsuru Sakai, chief of The Sankei Shimbun political desk, published a provocative analysis titled, "Do you have what it takes to protect the people of Japan?"
It's a question that all parties in the National Diet will have to answer.
RELATED:
- EDITORIAL | Voters Deserve Debate That Tackles a Range of Policy Issues
- Ishiba Avoids Going Machiavellian, Signaling Mayhem in the LDP
- LDP Prefectural Federations Not Pleased With Ishiba's 'Double Punishment'
- Shigeru Ishiba Plans to Call General Election on October 27
Author: Arielle Busetto
