The New Trump Administration, What's In It for Japan and India?

The results of the American presidential elections are very important, not only for the United States but for countries worldwide. The reelection of Donald Trump as president will have some major ramifications for other countries. Let us analyze the impact of Trump's win on two countries — Japan (a close ally) and India (a growing security partner).

During the earlier term of President Trump, the late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were his close partners. Although PM Modi is still at the helm of affairs in India, things changed in Japan after the assassination of Shinzo Abe in July 2022.

*PM Narendra Modi with President Donald Trump in Houston, Texas on September 22, 2019 (©PM India Photo Gallery)*

What Does it Mean for Common Ground with India?

The relations between India and the US have grown very fast in recent years, especially since the signing of the US-India nuclear deal in 2008. President Trump has previously visited India and is viewed as being close to Indian PM Modi.

In addition, it is worth noting that Indian-Americans are now a very influential community within the United States. Indeed, several of them could be appointed to key positions in the government.

In recent months, relations between India and the US have worsened because of tensions over the issue of Khalistani separatists. Some of those separatists are based in the US. However, this issue is expected to take a backseat now in the wider gamut of the bilateral ties.

India, Japan, the United States and Australia together also make up the Quad. Related to that, the Malabar joint military exercises are held between the navies of these countries.

Furthermore, India and the US face common threats from China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The two countries have entered into some of the biggest defense deals in the history of India and have seen unprecedented cooperation between the armed forces of the two nations in recent years.

India also needs support from the US on its application for permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

*Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands at the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 22. (©AP)*

Areas of Divergence with America

However, there are quite a few areas of divergence between the two countries, especially when it comes to trade. India has a trade surplus with the US and Trump could go after that surplus.

In addition, there is the issue of India's ties with Russia. PM Modi has already made a standalone visit to Russia in 2024. He did that soon after entering his third term as the PM of India.

Russia has now become the biggest supplier of oil to India. Also, Russia is still the leading supplier of arms to India. In the past, there have also been noises made about the US imposing sanctions on India due to its purchase of Russian-made S-400 weapon systems.

Additionally, it seems President Trump is going to tighten the screws when it comes to immigration from countries like India. This may especially affect immigration under the H1B temporary work visa category for highly qualified individuals in specialty jobs. In addition, reports are circulating that the citizenship-by-birth rule in the US may change. This would impact many Indian-American families.

*Indian PM Modi addressing the Quad leaders summit in Wilmington, DE, on September 21, 2024. (©PM India Photo Gallery)*

What's In It for Japan?

Countries like Japan will have to wait and watch. One of the most important points to watch is whether Japan would have to pay more for hosting US troops on its soil. In his first term as president, Donald Trump was tough on China and may do so this term as well.

Japan has a lot riding on its relations with the president as it is surrounded by three nuclear-armed adversaries — Russia, China, and North Korea. Trump could ramp up pressure on China which will test Japan's close economic ties with China.

In addition, one key issue for Japan would be resolving the issue of North Korea's abductions of Japanese nationals. There could also be some progress in this area as in his first term, President Trump held two major summits with the North Korean strongman, in Singapore and Hanoi.

*Megumi Yokota's mother, Sakie (second from the left), and other family members of North Korean abduction victims meet with President Trump at the Akasaka Guest House on May 27, 2019.*

Japan has been steadily increasing its defense expenditure in the last couple of years, especially since the first Trump administration. It is increasing its defense expenditure to 2% of GDP by 2027, which is a big change from earlier times.

Tokyo is trying to set up a meeting between PM Shigeru Ishiba and Trump along the lines of then-PM Abe's first meeting with Trump. Abe was the first foreign leader to meet with Trump after his 2016 election. He met the then President-elect Trump at Trump Tower in New York.

The Road Ahead

To sum it up, the new Trump administration could mean closer ties between the US, Japan, and India given their mutual convergences. The Indo-Pacific will surely remain a major area of interest for America under the Trump Administration. And India and Japan are essential parts of the American plan for the Indo-Pacific.

Nevertheless, there is still some time before Mr Trump's official inauguration in January 2025. This could well be a period of risks and flux on the external front.