Newcomer Rocks Tokyo Governor Race: A Taste of the Future?

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike clinched victory in the recent gubernatorial election, easily securing her third term as the metropolis' governor. 

While many pundits anticipated another victory for Koike, the real story turned out to be the race for second place. In it, the relatively unknown Shinji Ishimaru finished well ahead of veteran opposition candidate Renho Saito. The results sent shockwaves through the Japanese political sphere. 

Ishimaru ran as an independent without the backing of any major party. Renho, on the other hand, received full support from the Japan Communist Party (JCP) and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), her former party. This outcome could significantly impact the mutually supportive relationship between the two parties. 

What factors led to Ishimaru's surprising second-place finish, and what contributed to Renho's dismal performance?

Who Is Ishimaru?

Ishimaru, the former mayor of Akitakata City, Hiroshima Prefecture, garnered 1,658,363 votes. He surpassed third-place former Upper House member Renho by over 370,000 votes and finished second to Koike. Relying extensively on internet campaigning, Ishimaru received votes from 37% of independents and 40% of voters aged 18 to their twenties.

According to a Kyodo News exit poll, Ishimaru emerged as the leading choice with 37% among independents who identified as having no party affiliation. Notably, within specific age brackets, 41% of voters aged 18 to 29 supported Ishimaru. Among all male voters, Ishimaru garnered 33%, surpassing Koike's 32%.

Over 5,000 individuals volunteered for Ishimaru's campaign, which focused primarily on rejuvenating Tokyo's economy and industry. His YouTube channel boasted approximately 300,000 subscribers. Using the platform, he actively posted videos of street speeches to engage and garner support from independent voters. 

Ishimaru was born in Akitakata City, Hiroshima Prefecture. He graduated from Kyoto University and worked in banking before winning his first mayoral election in 2020. During his tenure, he clashed with the city council over budgets while pursuing plans to introduce MUJI outlets at local roadside stations. 

He also used the city's official YouTube channel to criticize the council and media in press conferences. According to city officials, his channel has amassed over 260,000 subscribers, the highest among local governments nationwide.

Viral Campaigning

The catalyst for this surge in votes was Ishimaru's strategic utilization of the video-sharing platform YouTube. Throughout the election campaign, numerous individuals edited and uploaded clips featuring Ishimaru's street speeches and public engagements. One of these videos garnered over 3.1 million views by July 8. 

Unlike traditional media outlets such as newspapers and television, YouTube offered an unrestricted environment where viewers could access Ishimaru's speeches without constraints.

According to Google Trends, which tracks online search patterns, the search volume for Ishimaru on YouTube consistently outpaced that for Koike and Renho. Since the announcement of his candidacy on June 20, searches for Ishimaru were approximately 5-7 times more than both other leading candidates. By voting day on July 7, Ishimaru's lead over Renho in YouTube searches had widened to 7.5 times.

Renho's Policies and Controversies

While Ishimaru prioritized economy and industry, many of Renho's campaign pledges instead overlapped with those of Koike. When it came to policies on welfare, environmental issues, and Tokyo's declining births, Renho's position differed little from that of her chief target.

Moreover, Renho's credibility may have raised concerns among voters. In 2017, she admitted to violating the Japanese Nationality Law by holding both Taiwanese and Japanese citizenships for over 30 years. On June 30, 2017, Renho released excerpts from her family registry to demonstrate that she renounced her Taiwanese citizenship in September 2016. She officially declared Japanese citizenship in October of the same year. 

Renho acquired Japanese nationality at 17. However, Japanese law requires individuals to declare their nationality by age 22 if they opt for Japanese citizenship.

Comments she gave in a 1999 interview with the magazine Grazia also strongly suggested that she considered herself Chinese at that time, rather than Taiwanese. In the interview, Renho claimed, "In terms of identity, if anything, I feel Chinese."

Miscalculation?

Backing Renho, the CDP also miscalculated. Aware of independent Governor Yuriko Koike's support from the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, it framed the election as a battle against the national ruling coalition. It sharply criticized the LDP, which has been under fire over its slush fund scandal. Some commentators speculated that the CDP aimed to leverage the momentum of winning three by-elections in April and the Shizuoka prefectural election in May. Renho's poor performance, however, has dampened those hopes.

On the evening of July 7, Hiroshi Ogushi, chairman of the CDP's campaign committee, addressed the press at the party headquarters. "It's a tough result," he acknowledged. "We aim to analyze it thoroughly and chart our next steps accordingly."

Communist backing estranged other potential supporters of Renho. The Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) maintain a negative stance on electoral cooperation with the JCP. This is primarily due to policy differences. In the Tokyo gubernatorial election, the Tokyo branch of the DPP and RENGO Tokyo supported Governor Yuriko Koike, underscoring the rift with the CDP. 

Ogushi refrained from explicitly stating the CDP's future approach to cooperation with the JCP. "We want to proceed after careful analysis and verification," he remarked. On the other hand, JCP Secretary-General Akira Koike insisted to the press, "There are no drawbacks to our cooperation."

Tokyo's Shifting Election Dynamics

Ishimaru's success was propelled by grassroots support and robust online campaigning. Moreover, it underscores the growing influence of independent candidates and digital platforms in Japanese politics. Meanwhile, Renho's underperformance, despite support from major parties, raises questions about voter confidence in those alignments and political alliances.

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Author: Daniel Manning