A family photo of the G7 defense ministers, together with the NATO Secretary General and the Ukraine defense minister. (©G7Italy)
Kim Jong Un of North Korea, appears to be raising his partnership with Russia to a dangerous new level. He is reported to have given marching orders to thousands of troops, sending them towards the frontline in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, responded with a stark warning.
"This is a huge threat of further escalation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. There is a big risk of it growing out of its current scale and borders," he said.
Deteriorating Security Framework
Defense ministers of the Group of Seven industrialized countries (G7) gathered for a conference in Italy from October 18-20. They were reminded that the conflict in Ukraine is inextricably linked to the security of East Asia.
Italy's defense minister Guido Crosetto spoke of global tensions fueled by a confrontation between "two different, perhaps incompatible visions of the world."
"The brutal Russian aggression in Ukraine and the critical situation in the Middle East - combined with the profound instability of sub-Saharan Africa and the increasing tension in the Indo-Pacific region - highlight a deteriorated security framework," Mr Crosetto said.
Recently appointed North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Mark Rutte joined the meeting. He spoke of the value of cooperation between the G7 and NATO and the complex challenges to shared security. Japan is not a NATO country, although it is a key member of the G7.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba mooted the idea of creating an "Asian NATO" before his selection as the leader of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP.
Intelligence Reports
The secretive nature of the North Korean regime makes it difficult to obtain reliable information about its military activities. However, intelligence sources in South Korea claim to have gleaned vital data from spy satellites.
In a briefing for Yonhap News, South Korea's National Intelligence Service said that the North has decided to send around 12,000 soldiers to Russia. Apparently, 1,500 special forces troops from North Korea have already arrived in Vladivostok.
Other sources - such as Ukraine's military intelligence - support the story but suggest fewer soldiers are involved.
"The battalion is expected to include up to 3,000 North Korean troops and is currently being supplied with small arms and ammunition," the Kyiv Post reported.
The troops are unlikely to radically change the dynamic of the Ukraine war, according to Samuel Ramani. He is an expert on military affairs at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a think tank in London. Nevertheless, he thinks Vladimir Putin could try to use the battalion to plug holes on the southern Ukrainian frontline. That is where Russia is redirecting troops to Kursk. It could neutralize any drawdown from Donetsk, where Russia has an offensive momentum.
"North Korea's history of deploying forces in terrains as diverse as Angola to Syria suggests that the soldiers could integrate more easily with the Russian army than some people might expect," says Dr Ramani.
'Sense of Crisis'
Japan's Minister of Defense Gen Nakatani raised the situation at the G7 meeting in Naples. In its joint statement, the group of defense ministers jointly expressed "concern about [North Korea's] increasing military cooperation with Russia."
During talks with the United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Nakatani also articulated concerns about China's growing military assertiveness. Those include large-scale drills aimed at simulating a blockade of Taiwan.
The two men shared a "strong sense of crisis", according to a spokesperson for the Japanese side.
At their meeting, the US and Japanese governments pledged to further enhance their deterrence and response capabilities. "I hope Japan and the United States will work closely as one to reinforce the alliance," Mr Nakatani said in Naples.
In return, Mr Austin said the US commitment to the defense of Japan remains unwavering. He alluded to America's extended deterrence, which includes the nuclear protection provided to its allies.
Safety Net
A close security network with like-minded countries, such as the Philippines and South Korea, is central to Japanese foreign policy.
This goal was reiterated in Seoul on October 17 by Deputy Foreign Minister, Masataka Okano. South Korea's Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun briefed him on the mounting tensions with the North.
North Korean soldiers recently blew up two roads that link it with South Korea. In response, the South Korean military fired warning shots in areas south of the Military Demarcation Line.
Kurt Campbell, who coordinates America's security strategy in the Indo-Pacific, was also involved in the meeting in Seoul.
The three parties agreed to set up a new multinational team to monitor the enforcement of sanctions against North Korea.
Increased Threat
A mutual defense treaty signed by Kim and Putin in June was a particularly pressing concern. It could embolden the North Koreans and potentially lead to some kind of military provocation against the South.
Furthermore, Russia may be called upon to back the North's nuclear weapons program.
Dr Samuel Ramani from RUSI says Russia has already endorsed North Korea's right to a nuclear deterrent. Moreover, Russia has argued at international meetings that nuclear weapons protect North Korea from American aggression.
He says that the North Korean regime has earned $1 billion USD from arms sales to Russia. This hard currency is especially useful, given the international sanctions upon the country. Now it seems that Kim wants Putin to offer technological assistance, too.
"That raises the specter of the Russians helping North Korean scientists in the production of fissile materials which can be used for weapons," says Dr Ramani. He asks how far Russia will be prepared to go in undermining the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.
As the only country to have suffered atomic bombings, Japan has been leading the international discussion on disarmament and non-proliferation. Recently, the Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to a survivors' organization, Nihon Hidankyo. That has been seen as a timely reminder for the world of the horrific implications of nuclear conflict.
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Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.
