The Hwasong-11Ma ballistic missile (left) on display at the National Defense Development 2025 weapons exhibition in Pyongyang on October4. (©Korea Central News Agency)
North Korea's military capabilities are rapidly advancing, bolstered by Russian support in both weapons development and troop operations.
In response, South Korea's Lee Jae-myung administration has proposed an 8.2% increase in defense spending — one of the largest in recent years — which is expected to pass the National Assembly.
At the same time, the United States–South Korea alliance faces mounting strains. Disputes over the positioning of US forces and cost-sharing for their deployment remain unresolved, casting uncertainty over the future of bilateral cooperation.
While the October 29 bilateral summit wrapped up tariff negotiations, anti-American sentiment has been spreading across South Korea.
Eighty years after the peninsula's division, the military confrontation between North and South has entered a new phase, one that increasingly resembles a renewed Cold War.
Pyongyang's Parade of Power
On October 10, Pyongyang staged a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea.
Military and intelligence officials from Japan, the US, and South Korea closely watched to identify the weapons on display and detect any indications of Russian technical support.
The parade was intended to showcase the achievements of the final year of General Secretary Kim Jong Un's Five-Year Plan for the Development of National Defense Science and Weapon Systems.
Among them was the newly unveiled intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-20. It was accompanied by a range of precision strike systems, including short-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, strategic cruise missiles, and hypersonic cruise missiles.
According to South Korea's Unification Ministry, the event was the third-largest military parade in the country's history, featuring an estimated 18,000 troops.
A New Tactical Threat
Military observers zeroed in on the hypersonic variant Hwasong-11Ma. Hwasong is the generic designation for North Korean ballistic missiles.
The Hwasong-11 is catalogued as KN-23 under NATO nomenclature. It is believed to be derived from Russia's Iskander, with a range that covers the entirety of South Korea.
First observed in 2018, the Hwasong-11 series has undergone iterative improvements. The Hwasong-11Ma combines attributes essential for the battlefield, such as low-altitude flight, solid-propellant, and unpredictable trajectories.
It's widely regarded as a cutting-edge tactical missile that is difficult for conventional missile defense systems to intercept.
Russia's Growing Grip
Evidence suggesting Russian involvement in the development of the Hwasong-11Ma comes from testimony from a Ukrainian military intelligence official.
During the war in Ukraine, North Korea reportedly supplied Russia with the conventional Hwasong-11 missiles, which were noted for their low accuracy.
According to the official, it is believed that "Russia and North Korea collaborated to enhance its precision."
To that end, Russia's transfer of technology appears aimed less at compensating North Korea and more at improving the missile's battlefield usability for Russian forces.
North Korea showcased Hwasong-11Ma at its 2025 national defense development exhibition shortly before the parade and conducted a test launch within its own territory soon afterward.
New Missile, New Threat
Allegations of Russian technological support go beyond the Hwasong-11Ma, however. A South Korean government report suggests Russia has also provided short-range air-defense systems, such as the Pantsir-S1, as well as electronic and drone-jamming equipment.
A captured North Korean fighter in Ukraine testified to having used a "Russian-made drone-jamming gun." The prisoner of war also stated that Russia transferred technology for the Iranian "Shahed-136" suicide drone to North Korea and aided in establishing a domestic production line.
Meanwhile, the newly unveiled Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic missile is solid-fueled and designed to target the United States. With an estimated range exceeding 15,000 kilometers, it's theoretically capable of striking any point on the US mainland.
Its solid fuel propulsion allows for quicker launch preparation and easier concealment during transport and setup.
North Korea has claimed it "successfully conducted an engine combustion test on September 8," though neither a full test launch nor verified atmospheric reentry capability has been demonstrated.
Nevertheless, it represents a strategic threat that cannot be dismissed in future negotiations with Washington.
Seoul's Defense Dilemma
"South Korea is most concerned about what kind of conventional weapons support Russia is providing to North Korea," says Kohtaro Ito, a senior researcher at the Canon Institute for Global Studies who specializes in South Korean military and security affairs.
"While North Korea certainly possesses long-range weapons, it has recently been focusing its efforts on short-range capabilities [that threaten South Korea]," he added.
Seoul's strategy toward North Korea is built around the so-called "three-axis system." They consist of missile defense, preemptive strikes based on the detection of imminent North Korean launches, and massive retaliatory strikes targeting nuclear facilities and leadership command centers.
Within the bilateral alliance with the US, this approach is reinforced by the "4D" concept — Detect, Destroy, Defense, and Disrupt. It underscores a coordinated effort to counter North Korean missile threats at every stage.
Ito adds that recent Russia–North Korea cooperation has significantly strengthened Pyongyang's combat capabilities. This has made it increasingly difficult for Seoul to maintain an effective preemptive three-axis system.
Reassessing Defense Posture
Established around 2013, the system was based on the premise of a wide military gap between the two Koreas. At the time, South Korea was enjoying clear conventional superiority — a premise also underlying the 4D Strategy.
Yet as North Korea's capabilities advanced, South Korea began reassessing the three-axis framework under the previous administration of Yoon Suk-yeol.
Washington has also urged South Korea to modernize its forces stationed on the peninsula.
While the original mission of US Forces Korea — established after the Korean War — was to deter North Korea, Washington is now seeking broader operational flexibility as part of its regional modernization efforts. These efforts are driven mainly by a growing focus on Taiwan.
But due to the significant political sensitivities involved, Seoul has yet to decide on the matter.
Push for Self-Reliance?
In September, the Lee administration submitted a budget proposal that boosts defense spending by 8.2% year-on-year to ₩66.2947 trillion KRW (approximately $47 billion USD).
With the ruling party holding a majority in the National Assembly, the proposal is expected to pass by the end of the year.
In South Korea, progressive governments have often placed greater emphasis on self-sufficient national defense than their conservative counterparts. Whereas conservatives underscore alliance, progressives advocate for a self-reliant defense posture.
Notably, during his time in opposition, Lee was a vocal proponent of withdrawing American forces from South Korea. Although he has since set aside that position, he continues to emphasize the importance of self-reliant national defense.
Evolving Security Landscape
Ito further noted that "the declining birth rate has become an urgent challenge." While South Korea exports its K9 self-propelled howitzers worldwide, it now faces a shortage of trained personnel to operate them at home.
He added that, "integrating advanced technologies [such as unmanned systems and artificial intelligence] has become a top priority for ensuring the country's future defense capability."
The United States and South Korea held their regular Security Consultative Meeting on November 4, the first under both the Trump and Lee administrations, where the defense ministers of the two nations discussed key alliance issues.
The agenda included policy reviews on North Korea, the combined defense posture, and joint military exercises.
Amid shifting dynamics shaped by the deepening Russia–North Korea nexus, evolving US policy toward Taiwan, and North Korea's advancing military capabilities, the regional balance is undergoing rapid change. A new security landscape is therefore emerging on the Korean Peninsula.
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Author: Ruriko Kubota, The Sankei Shimbun
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