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[ODDS and EVENS] Expect a Plethora of Olympic Medals for Japan in Paris

After a sensational showing at Tokyo 2020, where Japan collected 58 Olympic medals, there are big expectations for the nation's athletes in France.

Published

3 days ago

July 5, 2024

Ed Odeven

Judo stars Hifumi Abe and Uta Abe, his younger sister, celebrate with their gold medals at the Tokyo Olympics on July 25, 2021. They are among Japan's expected gold-medal contenders for the Paris Games. (KYODO)

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How many Olympic medals will Japan capture at the 2024 Paris Games?

It is a compelling topic, and you can have a variety of discussions about it, analyzing it from any number of different angles.

But let's start with this: Will Japanese Olympians come close to matching their outstanding medal count from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics on home soil? Can the Hinomaru increase their medal total? Or will there be a slight drop (or a significant drop) in the total number of medals?

I believe there won't be a huge drop in the medal count. But it's definitely possible that the host-nation advantage was a significant factor for Japan en route to 27 gold, 14 silver and 17 bronze medals ― a national record of 58 total medals ― at the pandemic-delayed Olympic Games in 2021.

Let's also remember that baseball and softball were reinstituted for the 2020 Games after being scrapped from the Olympic program following the conclusion of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Japan won the gold in baseball and softball, thrilling millions of fans in their homeland.

OK, so maybe without baseball and softball 20-25 gold medals is a good place to start for a prediction.

The JOC is Officially Targeting 20 Gold Medals

Mitsugi Ogata, the Japanese Olympic Committee's secretary general, has issued a 20-gold medal target for the nation's athletes.

"The most important thing is to convey the value of sports that cannot just be measured by the number of medals, but the athletes need to perform for people to cheer them on," Ogata was quoted as saying by Kyodo News on June 26. "If the athletes compete well, the target can be reached."

Japan is set to dispatch more than 400 athletes to Paris, its largest contingent for an overseas Olympic Games and far succeeding the 339 who participated at the 2008 Beijing Games.

Japan Will Shine in Its Best Olympic Sports

Three years after staging the Tokyo Games without fans in the stands for nearly every event, replicating across-the-board numbers in each sport is not going to happen for Japan in France.

But you can expect Japan to come close to achieving comprehensive success in judo, wrestling, skateboarding, gymnastics and other sports (more details below).

Of the aforementioned 27 gold medals collected at Tokyo 2020, judo (nine), wrestling (five), skateboarding (three) and gymnastics (two) combined for 19 first-place finishes.

It would shock nobody if judo once again became the top sport on Japan's medal table in France. Using only the previous three Summer Olympics (Rio 2016, London 2012 and Beijing 2008) before Tokyo 2020 for context, Japan's judo delegation averaged 7.66 medals per Olympics.

What's more, judo ranks second on Japan's all-time medal count (96) for a summer sport, with its 48 gold won by Japanese judoka far exceeding No 2 on the sport list for Olympic titles.

Gymnastics tops the overall list with 103 medals and sits in third with 33 gold. Wrestling is No 2 with 37 gold and third on the total medal chart with 76.

And you can't overlook swimming. Japan has amassed 83 swimming medals, including 24 gold, since its first Olympic appearance in 1912.

*Judoka Uta Abe, a gold medalist at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, participates in the Japan women's national team training camp on May 3 in Tokyo. (KYODO)*

Judo Siblings Provide a Motivational Spark for the Team

Without a doubt, one of the most dramatic storylines of the Tokyo Olympics was the electric spectacle of Hifumi Abe and his younger sister Uta both winning gold medals on the same day, July 25, 2021, at Nippon Budokan.

Both rooted for one another and shared the joyful experience together as the host nation cheered with delight. The effervescent Uta, now 23, was the first sibling to claim gold on that glorious day.

Three years later, Hifumi Abe, 26, is the two-time defending world champion in the same weight class (66-kg division), while Uta Abe also claimed world titles in the women's 52-kg division in 2022 and '23.

Japan's exceptional depth among its judoka should produce similar results in Paris.

Success at the 2023 World Wrestling Championships Triggers High Expectations for Paris

In September 2023, Team Japan left Belgrade as the most successful of all nations competing at the World Wrestling Championships. This was made possible by Japan's dynamic female wrestling corps, which won six of 10 freestyle divisions in the Serbian capital.

Based on its track record of success, I expect Japan to earn at least 6-10 wrestling medals, with 50% or more being for titles, in Paris.

First and foremost, keep an eye on global superstar and defending Olympic gold medalist Yui Susaki, a four-time world champion (thrice at her current weight category, 50 kg) and her teammate Akari Fujinami, a 53-kg division participant who owns a 133-match winning streak.

In an interview with Nikkan Gendai, Susaki, 25, outlined her goals for the 2024 Paris Games and beyond.

"My big dream is to win gold medals in Tokyo, Paris, Los Angeles, and the next Olympics (2032 in Brisbane, Australia)," Susaki told the newspaper. If she's able to accomplish that extraordinary feat, she'd become the second female Olympian to win four consecutive gold medals in the same sport.

Who was the first?

Retired Japanese wrestler Kaori Icho.

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Author: Ed Odeven

Find Ed on JAPAN Forward's dedicated website, SportsLook. Follow his [Japan Sports Notebook] on Sundays, [Odds and Evens] during the week, and X (formerly Twitter) ＠ed_odeven.