Okinawa Governor Opposed to US Base Loses Majority: What it Means for Japan's Security

Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki's political maneuvering is facing rough weather with consecutive political and legal blows. To begin with, candidates backing Tamaki have failed to secure a majority in the recent local assembly elections. In the 48-seat prefectural assembly, Tamaki supporters obtained 20 seats, while his opposition secured 27 seats. 

Tamaki's political support stems primarily from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Japanese Communist Party, and the Social Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, the Komeito party, remain steadfast in their opposition.

The loss in the prefectural election has surely come as a major blow to Tamaki's political plans. It also hampers his struggling strategy to stop the relocation of a key American military base within Okinawa. Japan's government has been pushing ahead with its decision to move the United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma from a densely populated area in Ginowan to a new facility being constructed in a coastal area in Nago. Both are situated on Okinawa's main island.

Transfer of US Troops

Notably, transfers of troops stationed at the US Marine Corps in Okinawa to Guam are scheduled to start in December 2024. According to the US Congressional Research Service, the plan to relocate 4,000 of the approximately 19,000 Marines currently stationed in Okinawa is expected to be completed by 2028. The US Pentagon is planning to move around 5,000 Marines from Okinawa to Hawaii, and other parts of the US mainland as well. As a result, the number of Marines stationed in Okinawa will eventually drop to around 10,000.

Meanwhile, Japan's Supreme Court has already rejected an appeal by Tamaki. Tamaki had appealed a lower court ruling that allowed Tokyo to override the local government and begin landfill work for the US military base transfer. Japan's top court finalized the ruling by the Fukuoka High Court's Naha branch. It can be seen as the Supreme Court's endorsement of the national government's plan to continue the work necessary to relocate the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to the Nago site. 

Nevertheless, following the ruling, Tamaki ignored the high court's order for him to approve the plan. This prompted the national government to intervene and grant approval on his behalf.

Okinawa's Strategic Importance

Japan is pushing forward with a major overhaul of its defense posture and strategy. This is in response to China's growing territorial assertiveness in the region. It also reflects growing Sino-Russian activity with North Korea. 

During such a time, Okinawa's strategic relevance only increases. It is proximate to both China and the Korean Peninsula. From a broader perspective, the case of Okinawa in particular remains a prime example of a nation's foreign and security policy being influenced by global and domestic political drivers. The presence of US bases in Okinawa needs to be discussed within the context of these factors.

Okinawa constitutes the core of Japan's positioning across the entire East China Sea. At the same time, the US military presence remains the pivot for the defense of Japan. It also serves as a security balancer for the entire region. Any major political/strategic shift on Okinawa Island will have a cascading effect on the Japan-US alliance and the regional deterrence it provides. It will also impact Japan's national security at large. 

Tamaki and his associates need to bear in mind that Okinawa is not merely a peripheral Japanese prefecture, but the lynchpin of Japan's strategic positioning in the East China Sea.

National and Regional Security at Stake

Furthermore, Governor Tamaki also needs to ask himself whether he would be able to guarantee the security of Okinawa on his own. What will he do when Japan's overall national security and integrity are placed under threat?

There have been debates on competing versions of security policy, state identity, and clashing political visions among domestic constituencies with divergent views. However, the overarching principle that should prevail is the territorial integrity and security of Japan as a nation. Okinawa will remain the fulcrum of Japan's geographical periphery and the core of its defense and security strategy on the East Asian drawing board.

Local politics within Okinawa should not be permitted to compromise Japan's national security. That only provides China with a window putting the prefecture and the nation at greater risk. Governor Tamaki's political defeat in the latest prefectural elections needs to be seen as a welcome step in that sense.

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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria

Learn more about Dr Chansoria and follow her column "All Politics is Global" on JAPAN Forward, and on X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.