PM Modi Visits Ukraine: New Delhi's Delicate Balancing Act

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Ukraine will go a long way in strengthening the ties between the two countries. There had been a fair bit of criticism over PM Modi visiting Russia earlier in July, given that India is the world's largest democracy. During that visit to Moscow, Ukraine claimed that a Russian missile hit the main children's hospital in Kyiv. The attack resulted in 41 civilian casualties. 

Modi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Both sides "reiterated their readiness for further cooperation in upholding principles of international law, including the UN Charter, such as respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of states." Even earlier, the two leaders had a string of high-level contacts. These included their meetings in Apulia, Italy, in June 2024 and Hiroshima in May 2023 on the margins of the G7 Summits.

India has growing ties with the West, and many of these countries were not too happy with PM Modi's Russia trip. Modi has not overtly criticized Russia's aggression against Ukraine. However, he faces considerable pressure from various countries, especially Western nations, to do so. India has also stopped short of labeling Russia as an aggressor in this war with Ukraine.

Finding Equilibrium

India has had to do a delicate balancing act between its age-old ties with Russia and its growing ties with the West. This has not been easy.

New Delhi still depends on Moscow for the majority of its military hardware supplies. Russia has also become the leading source of oil imports for India, especially in the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, Russia has received sanctions on its energy exports to other countries. This has made the oil trade between Russia and India a win-win situation for both countries. In particular, it is important for India, an energy-deficient nation with a huge population and a growing economy. 

Indian companies also buy unrefined oil from Russia and export it to third countries. 

Russia is also a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council and has supported India on key resolutions at the UN. For India, the main challenge is from China, and New Delhi would not like Beijing to get even closer to Moscow than it is now. 

Interestingly, at the same time Modi was visiting Ukraine, the Chinese Premier Li Qiang was visiting Russia and Belarus. So this can be seen as a delicate geopolitical balancing act, too. China has been supporting Russia in a big way in its war effort in Ukraine, and this has brought those two countries closer.

Why The Ukraine Visit Was Crucial

First, the visit was significant given that India sees itself as the leader of the Global South. At the same time, almost all the major world leaders have visited Ukraine in the past. Now, PM Modi needed to play his part. 

Second, India wanted to open channels of communication with Ukraine. These were lost in the period after Ukraine's independence, following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union. New Delhi has had close ties with many of the post-Soviet republics, but that did not seem to be the case with Ukraine. In fact, this visit was the first by an Indian Prime Minister ever since Ukraine attained independence.

Third, there are still many students of Indian origin who are studying medicine in Ukraine. India mounted a massive relief effort for these students in the initial days of the invasion. Besides the Indian diaspora, it was important for New Delhi and Kyiv to have good ties in the interests of these students.

Fourth, after taking over as PM for the third time earlier in June 2024, Modi paid this term's first bilateral visits to Russia and Austria. This was different from what happened in his two earlier terms when he visited countries in India's immediate neighborhood. Many in Western capitals were surprised by this.

Japan's Role

Japan has been helping Ukraine with non-lethal defensive hardware and financial redevelopment support. Additionally, Japan expects to play a major role in Ukraine's reconstruction after the war ends. Furthermore, Zelenskyy physically attended the Hiroshima G7 Summit held in the hometown of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. 

Tokyo has committed Ukraine with financial, humanitarian, and other aid worth over $12 billion USD since March 2022. That includes $4.5 billion in support during 2024. It has also been at the forefront of strong sanctions against Russia and Russian entities for its war against Ukraine. At the same time, it is worth noting here that Tokyo also has a territorial dispute with Russia.

Challenges

India has not signed the communiqué of the first Global Summit on Ukraine, which was held in Switzerland in June and excluded Russia. China did not attend the summit. Therefore, while Modi visited Kyiv, it was clear that both India and Ukraine had their own national interests in mind. They can be expected to act accordingly. The visit is therefore unlikely to change New Delhi's age-old ties with Moscow. 

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Author: Rupakjyoti Borah