'Post-Kishida' Search for the Next LDP Leaders Accelerates as Calls Rise for 'New Stars'

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, 66, is facing increasing pressure as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Among other problems, the controversy over unreported income from LDP fundraising activities dominated the last part of the Diet session. He is expected to avoid dissolving the Lower House before September's party leadership election. However, the search for a "post-Kishida" candidate to lead the LDP is gaining momentum. 

Potential "faces of the party" are being evaluated for the next Lower House election. Familiar faces like 68-year-old Toshimitsu Motegi and 67-year-old Shigeru Ishiba are not expected to provide the dramatic change needed to restore trust. Therefore, some hope that a new star will emerge from among female, mid-career, or younger members.

Consensus on a 'Post-Kishida' Future

Can PM Kishida run for re-election as the party leader?

Recently, the LDP suffered defeats in several local elections. Those include three Lower House by-elections in April and the Shizuoka Prefecture governor election in May. That has raised concerns about whether Kishida can lead the party to victory in the next Lower House election. 

In addition, party officials touring various regions during a "political dialogue gathering" exercise have heard increasing calls for the PM's resignation from local organizations. With the end of the Diet session on June 23, efforts to remove him could intensify.

Exacerbating Problems Within the Party

By all accounts, Kishida's influence within the party is waning. He bypassed party leadership and incorporated revisions to the Political Funds Control Law from the Komeito and Ishin no Kai. However, he bypassed party leadership in the process. That move reportedly displeased party Vice President and former Prime Minister Taro Aso, his mentor. There are reports that the Kishida camp proposed a dinner with Aso on June 11, but it did not take place.

His sudden faction dissolution and handling of Abe faction members fueled internal discontent. A senior Upper House member commented, "The prime minister worsened the situation. Despite the dissolution of the faction, our Upper House group is united on 'post-Kishida' for the leadership election."

Therefore, while Kishida has sought to make progress in economic, diplomatic, and constitutional reforms, the path narrowed.

Motegi's Ambition

Meanwhile, Motegi, part of a leadership "troika" with PM Kishida and Aso, has been open about his ambition. "There are things I want to achieve as prime minister," he said via his online channel, expressing his clear interest in succeeding Kishida. 

Motegi also appears to be trying to keep his supporters close. He popped into a meeting organized by Abe faction members of the Lower House with one to three terms of election experience. Additionally, invited by Hideo Onishi, he recently dined with mid-career and young LDP members. Onishi, a fourth-term Lower House member, was also from the Abe faction.

Lawmakers acknowledge Motegi's strong practical abilities. Nevertheless, some, particularly mid-career members, voice concerns, saying, "We cannot support Motegi. He neglected his duties as secretary-general [of the party]."

Non-Mainstream Factions and Former PM Suga

Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga also garnered attention as a player in the "post-Kishida" search. Suga has distanced himself from the current prime minister. 

On June 6 in Tokyo, he met with four former ministers from his administration. Three were from the trio known as "HKT" during his administration. One was Koichi Hagiuda, former Policy Research Council chairman. The other two were Katsunobu Kato (68), a former chief cabinet secretary, and Ryota Takeda, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications. The fourth was 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, who served as environment minister under Suga.

In May Kato left room for his potential candidacy when he responded to a question on his internet channel. He said, "If I am asked, my basic stance is to respond sincerely."

Among the LDP's six factions, all except the Aso faction (Shikokai) have dissolved or decided to dissolve as political entities. However, some level of continuing cohesion is expected among members.

If Kato from the Motegi faction enters the leadership race, he could undermine Motegi's influence. Moreover, Kato was one of Shinzo Abe's closest associates, alongside Hagiuda. Therefore, he might also gain support from the Abe faction. If Suga also backs him with his influence among non-mainstream factions, Kato could gain an advantage in internal party dynamics. Nonetheless, his lack of name recognition remains a weakness.

​​Suga has not indicated his position on the leadership election yet. However, he has long held hopes for Koizumi. They cooperated in advocating for the legalization of ridesharing, which involves private drivers transporting passengers for a fee. 

Suga distances himself from factions but is also closely monitoring whether 61-year-old Taro Kono will leave the Aso faction. He backed Kono in the 2021 leadership election. 

Finally, Ishiba also remains a potential option.

Will a New Star Emerge?

A young Diet member remarked on the upcoming party leadership election, saying: "The LDP should feature multiple candidates, conduct nationwide tours, engage in numerous debates, and get lots of media coverage. Unless a surprising savior emerges from that effort, it will be difficult to revive the LDP." The same member advocated that the candidates should be women, mid-career, and young members.

Among female candidates, 63-year-old Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economic Security, has expressed eagerness to run. Additionally, 71-year-old Yoko Kamikawa, Foreign Minister, has gained prominence after receiving Aso's endorsement.

Among mid-career and younger members, the names mentioned include Koizumi and 65-year-old Ken Saito, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. They were among the handful who first won seats in the Lower House election in 2009 when the LDP lost power. Saito has also previously served as Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Minister of Justice. He has received high praise for his performance.

Some are also supporting Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, former Minister of Economic Security. He was elected to the Lower House in 2012 when the LDP regained power. A former finance bureaucrat, he holds conservative political views. He also influenced major government policies on economic security, advising former Secretary-General Akira Amari on its importance. 

Hauiuda has regarded him highly in party conferences. Standing out with his 186-centimeter height, he is nicknamed "Kobahawk" due to his given name Taka, which means "hawk." Another young politician noted, "When you scan the assembly, he's the one who stands out."

Internationally, there are instances of such young leaders, like French President Macron, who assumed office at 46. However, taking on such responsibilities without adequate preparation also poses risks to the nation. 

Other Parties

In 2012, towards the end of PM Yoshihiko Noda's tenure, the Democratic Party held a leadership election. At that time, Goshi Hosonon was the environment minister. He was encouraged by mid-career and young members to contest the election, but he declined. (Later he changed his affiliation to the Liberal Democratic Party.)

Looking at the opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) is also preparing for a leadership election in September. That is when 49-year-old leader Kenta Izumi's term ends. There are calls for a Noda-like conservative to take the reins, which is prompting caution within the LDP.

As autumn approaches, political uncertainties seem set to deepen.

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Daisuke Sawada