The recent internal political rough ride of the two most prominent Northeast Asian democracies, Japan and South Korea, draws attention to how domestic politics matters internationally.
Whether through governmental power transitions, or internal political crises, the cascading impact of a nation's domestic politics on its international affairs, often occurs in byzantine, nuanced ways.
When internal political crises escalate or prevail perennially, foreign rivals begin to test the waters. They begin to gauge the weak political regime's response mechanism and willingness.
On another level, a fluid state of political stability in the target nation offers potential benefits to its foreign adversaries. It allows them to force weak leadership into making concessions in order to avoid "real conflict."
As per a 2021 paper titled Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy published in the Journal of Economic Literature, foreign state and non-state actors have an interest in influencing policy actions in other sovereign countries to their advantage. It argues that since policy choices in an interconnected world generate external economic and political costs, foreign influence is a strategic choice aimed at internalizing these externalities.
Japan's Domestic Struggles
Following the October 2024 election verdict, Japan finds itself in a space of considerable political uncertainty. A hung parliament, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffering major losses, and the opposition parties not just resurging, but gaining substantially. All this made major headlines across East Asia, and beyond.
Japan's domestic political turmoil resulted in the LDP now banking on coalition partners to run the government. It is a dependency that could well cast a shadow on the implementation of quite a few policies. The LDP and its junior ally Komeito suffered a crushing defeat. Their campaign was also marred by a political funds scandal and the party's unresolved link to the Unification Church.
The consequential impact of the internal political pandemonium is being felt across the spectrum in Tokyo's political corridors. This is evident in the form of policy paralysis and the fragility of the very existence of the multi-party coalition government.
Ironically, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's own political survival depends on drawing support from LDP's long-time primary political rival, the Democratic Party of Japan, reconstituted as the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
How would a weak leadership and insecure government bode in terms of domestic policymaking, security-related affairs, and strategic takes in Japan's neighborhood?
South Korea's Political Crisis
From air and sea incursions and missile launches to nuclear saber-rattling, both China and North Korea constantly challenge Japan. They could well exploit the precarious political scene evolving inside Tokyo.
As Kimberly Kagan recently stated in a JAPAN Forward interview, it is essential to prepare to defend against aggressive states that are willing to use military means to achieve their objectives. In this reference, Japan must prepare to defend itself against potential aggression by China or others before any conflict begins.
Not too far away, there is also trouble in neighboring South Korea. Its contemporary tryst with democracy — long embedded in a history of military rule — is being challenged by President Yoon Suk-yeol. He shocked the nation and the world by declaring emergency martial law.
The National Assembly (parliament) salvaged South Korean democracy by unanimously rebuking the decision. It forced Yoon to accept defeat within a few hours and announce the lifting of the martial law order.
The political crisis in South Korea has reached a breaking point. Meanwhile, his impeachment by the National Assembly is now setting the stage for a prolonged legal battle in South Korea's Constitutional Court.
Democratic Fragmentation
This also brings to light Seoul's gloomy track record of most of its successive presidents being indicted on criminal charges after they leave office. Such patterns fundamentally threaten the long-term viability of South Korea's democratic evolution and credibility.
In May 1948, the South was newly declared the Republic of Korea. Since then, it has witnessed both democratic authoritarianism and authoritarian exceptionalism in its political evolution. It was only from 2002 onwards that South Korea transitioned into a participatory democracy.
As long as South Korea remains susceptible to ideological, individual, or populist impulses, it will be difficult to adjudicate between political actors. Divided opinions over the strength and durability of democracy in South Korea have also widened with Seoul's latest predicament. That South Korea is gripped by democratic fragmentation can no longer be denied.
Domestic Instability and Global Impact
The two cases in point cited above need to be deliberated diligently. This is addressed in a 2019 Journal of Conflict Resolution paper titled "Domestic Political Consequences of International Rivalry." It argues how interstate conflict events influence domestic politics, especially international strategic rivalry.
Interestingly, this could also play out vice versa. There is a close connection — or cross-pollination — between external threats, political instability, internal fragmentation, and government capacity.
The history of global security is not rich in the peaceful transition of power from one great power to another. In the contemporary context, Communist China has deftly managed to control its internal and external environment, with the CCP seeking to obtain a powerful source of impetus for its international goals.
Increased Vigilance in 2025
Having emerged as Asia's most overriding power in the adverse sense, China is an expansionist communist nation that seeks territorial revisionism. In contrast, Japan has long been regarded by mainstream international relations theories as a status quo power, The country is described as pursuing an immobilist international strategy towards China, characterized by hedging rather than active balancing.
Today, Asia's situation has reached a point wherein its sub-regions are just about a blink away from being swallowed by China geo-strategically.
The multi-dimensional void being created by the current internal political crises in Northeast Asian democracies could well be seized by China as a strategic opportunity. One that could be a timely opportunity for Beijing to launch its unbridled quest for dominance in Northeast Asian waters and Taiwan.
The democracies of Northeast Asia, predominantly defined by Tokyo and Seoul, need to remain cautious in 2025, in the wake of their respective ongoing political brittleness. They must also be vigilant about the potential consequences of their territorial disputes and security challenges emanating from China and North Korea.
Japan and South Korea are not just prominent Northeast Asian democracies. They are the region's lynchpins serving as key offshore balancers against Chinese hegemony across Asia.
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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria
Learn more about Dr Chansoria and follow her column "All Politics is Global" on JAPAN Forward, and on X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.
