Happy New Year to JAPAN Forward and SportsLook readers. We are pleased to bring you "Predictions 2025," a special New Year's series sharing the foresight and expectations of selected contributors for the coming year in their fields of specialty, continuing with Jack Gallagher's forecast for figure skating.
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Despite enjoying another banner year on the ice in 2024, there will be plenty of challenges in 2025 for Japanese skaters. Their nine medals at the combined Junior and Senior Grand Prix Final in December in Grenoble, France, represented an all-time best for Japan at the prestigious event. However, only one of those medals was gold ー junior Mao Shimada's.
The retirement of two-time world champion Shoma Uno after last season and the continued emergence of two American skaters (Ilia Malinin and Amber Glenn) this campaign could well impact the success the Hinomaru enjoys at the world level this year.
Uno's retirement was not unexpected, but the ongoing growth of Malinin will make it difficult for a Japanese man to ascend to the top of skating in 2025. Beijing Olympic silver medalist Yuma Kagiyama is the primary challenger to Malinin. But the 21-year-old Kagiyama will be the first to admit that the gap in their recent results has not been close.
Shun Sato, Kao Miura and Tatsuya Tsuboi will be vying to join Kagiyama on the 2026 Olympic team during the 2025 season. Their maturation over the next 12 months will be a key to whether the Japan men can win multiple medals at the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships in Boston.
Sato, Miura and Tsuboi are all capable of pulling off great skates, but lack the consistency and stability of Kagiyama.
Predictions for Sakamoto and Chiba
Kaori Sakamoto won her third consecutive world crown in 2024 but was unable to retain her title at the GP Final after being bested by the resurgent Glenn, who is riding her triple axel to new heights.
The 24-year-old Sakamoto claimed her fourth consecutive title at the Japan Championships, which had to give her a boost going into 2025. Without the triple axel that Glenn possesses, however, a fourth straight world crown may be a tough hill to climb for the Kobe native.
Mone Chiba's emergence continued with a silver medal behind Glenn at the GP Final. However, she has now been in position to have a great result a few times the past few seasons, but seems to find a way not to. The 19-year-old Chiba's issue is not her skating, but rather her confidence to perform in the clutch.
Chiba who won the Four Continents Championships in 2024, clearly has the skating skills to be a world medalist. The real question is whether she has the fortitude to do it. We will find out in March.
Matsuike and Higuchi Plagued by Inconsistency
Rino Matsuike and Wakaba Higuchi have excelled at times during the 2024-25 season, but can't be relied on for consistent results. After medaling at both of her GP events in 2024, Hana Yoshida's fifth-place finish at the GP Final and coming in 11th at the Japan Championships represents cause for concern.
With two-time world junior champion Shimada not eligible to compete at the 2026 Olympics due to her age, the battle for the berths for Milan among the senior Japanese women will be intense. Sakamoto looks like the only lock at this point.
Rika Kihira retains hopes of a comeback in 2025. But after missing most of the past four seasons due to injury, it is hard to envision a realistic path back for the two-time Japan champion. So much time has gone by that even at 22 it looks like Kihira's time may have sadly passed.
Predictions: Expect a Banner Year for Japan's Juniors
The outlook for both Japan's junior women and men is bright for the new year.
Shimada will be going for an unprecedented third straight world junior title in 2025 and will be a favorite to achieve the feat despite her struggles this season with her triple axel and quadruple toe loop. She repeated as JGP Final champion in 2024 and claimed her fourth straight Japan junior title. And Shimada continued her impressive win streak in which she has never lost a competition she entered as a junior.
Fifteen-year-old Kaoruko Wada was a pleasant revelation in her international debut season with two medals during the JGP events and a silver behind Shimada at the JGP Final. Ami Nakai also netted two JGP medals and a bronze at the JGP Final in Japan's sweep.
Though Rio Nakata, now 16, could not defend his JGP Final title, he impressed by coming in second behind Kagiyama at December's Japan Championships. Nakata will also not be age-eligible to compete in the 2026 Olympics but appears poised for continued success on the junior circuit.
Sena Takahashi, who will turn 15 on January 29, enjoyed a fine international debut campaign. He medaled at both of his JGPs, was second at the Japan Junior Championships, and took fourth at the JGP Final. Fans can expect more solid results from him in 2025.
Miura and Kihara Eyeing a 2nd World Title
Pairs Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara, world champions in 2023, will look to climb back to the top of the world podium in March. After winning their opening GP this season, they were second at both the NHK Trophy and the GP Final.
Miura and Kihara appeared to be struggling to regain their top form after he was injured last season and they got off to a late start, though they still earned the silver medal at the 2024 world championships.
RELATED:
- Read other predictions from our series, Predictions 2025
- Follow Ice Time and other figure skating news on SportsLook.
- Predictions 2024: Japan's Figure Skaters Set to Continue Run of Success
Author: Jack Gallagher
The author is a veteran sports journalist and one of the world's foremost figure skating experts. Find articles and podcasts by Jack on his author page, and find him on X (formerly Twitter) @sportsjapan.
