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What does 2025 hold in store for our world, and what international issues will most impact Japan? Let's look at the forecasts in several key trending areas.
The most important player in the world in 2025 is undoubtedly Donald Trump. He will become the 47th President of the United States on January 20. Trump won a mandate from a majority of the American people through a democratic election. His new administration is poised to transform American domestic politics at its core and significantly reshape the international landscape.
What will international affairs look like in the coming year? In a nutshell, the Trump administration will promote a policy of "peace through strength."
This strategy aims to restore America's deterrent power, forcing back autocratic forces seeking to undermine the US-led international order. However, this recalibration of offense and defense may also give rise to potential military crises.
Nonetheless, the US still maintains a fundamentally powerful military force. Under Trump, the administration is expected to counter the expansion of autocratic forces by adopting a clear stance that emphasizes deterrence through selective intervention.
Four Pillars for the World in the New Year
Now, let's consider likely changes that will dominate in the new year in the convenient context of four primary pillars.
American Deterrence
First is the reinvigoration of American deterrence, as mentioned above.
This trend can be described as a "strong America" or a "deterrent America." America's international deterrent power has been steadily declining under the Joe Biden administration and the Democrats.
The Biden administration chose to prioritize policies embodied in the slogans "international cooperation" and "globalization." In doing so, it turned its back on the previous American axiom of "peace through strength."
This fueled the rise of anti-democratic forces, manifesting in events like the invasion of Ukraine and the October 7 attack on Israel. It was also evident in China's military expansion and the resurgence of Islamic fundamentalism in Afghanistan. Together, they created the impression of the weakening of America's international leadership and the decline of the liberal democratic camp.
There are high hopes that the second Trump administration will reverse this decline. Under the policy slogan "America First," the Trump administration emphasizes a cautious stance toward US military intervention abroad. However, Trump has declared that he will not hesitate to use military power when the lives of American citizens are threatened. He also emphasized taking action in cases of serious infringements on American interests. This is selective military intervention.
International Conservatism
The second major trend is the international growth of conservativism and the decline of liberalism. This phenomenon was clearly evidenced in the recent US presidential election.
Watch for an increased emphasis on national sovereignty and a decline in globalization. It can also be characterized as the spread of policies prioritizing national interests and a reduced emphasis on international cooperation.
A conservative political trend was already apparent in Europe. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni rose to power through democratic processes despite being previously labeled an "extreme rightist." This characterization stemmed from her commitment to national sovereignty and opposition to the large-scale influx of immigrants.
Likewise, in France, there has been growing support for Marine Le Pen, president of the conservative National Rally Party.
In these contexts, what do conservatism and liberalism mean when it comes to running a nation?
Conservatism is rooted in fundamental principles that prioritize a nation's own interests and cultural traditions. It also emphasizes easing government regulations and recognizing the importance of military power.
Liberalism has significantly contrasting characteristics. It includes an emphasis on international cooperation, stronger government regulation at home, and a downplaying of the importance of military power.
Military Strength
The third notable trend we are likely to see in 2025 is the expanding role of military power.
Global crises and turmoil of the past few years have been primarily military in nature. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a clear example. The same can be said of Hamas's attack on Israel.
China's ongoing aggressive expansion is based on a massive buildup of its military power. North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles represents a provocative military strategy aimed at unsettling the global order.
Naturally, shifts in the international landscape are influenced by more than just the projection of military power. However, recent instability on the international scene has been due mainly to military actions by certain autocratic countries.
Specifically, several autocratic nations made noticeable attempts to undermine America's international leadership. A key reason for this was the diminishing emphasis the United States, as the sole superpower, placed on its military strength. The Biden administration also deepened the liberal tradition of aversion to and disregard for the military.
Turning Around the US Military
As is well known, President Biden declared that the US would respond with economic sanctions in the event of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Thus, it preemptively ruled out any military action.
Moreover, Biden also stifled the defense budget. For the latest fiscal year, the nominal figure for his defense budget showed a paltry increase of 1% year-on-year. In reality, when accounting for inflation, the defense budget was effectively reduced. His administration also canceled important projects for the development of new weapons, including those decided by the previous Trump administration.
During the coming year, the incoming Trump administration intends to reverse this shrinking of the US military. In this regard, the role of military power in international affairs is likely to grow once more.
Simultaneously, military power will likely continue to be a key tool for anti-democratic autocracies. They have employed military force overtly and covertly in recent years to expand their national ambitions and challenge the US-led world order.
Meanwhile, the widespread use of high-tech weapons such as drones, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyberattacks in the Ukraine war has changed the fundamental nature of modern warfare.
Many countries are now working to transform the capabilities and effectiveness of their military forces by incorporating advanced new technologies. This demonstrates how the international environment and military power itself are undergoing dramatic changes.
Global and Local Economies
The fourth is the change in the international role of economics.
World peace and stability could be upheld if each country's domestic economy remained stable and its external economic relations functioned smoothly. If global economies were growing and stable, political and security relations between countries would likely remain harmonious. This was the prevailing mindset for many years, often referred to as the "supremacy of economics."
In 2025, it will become increasingly clear that this concept of economic supremacy does not work in reality. The idea that priority should be given to the economy above all else started to crumble from around 2022. That situation is expected to become even more pronounced in 2025.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine signified the collapse of the ideology of economic supremacy. There were strong economic ties between Russia and Ukraine, as well as with the Western nations backing them. To sanction the Russian aggression, the US and Europe immediately cut off economic exchanges. That included purchases of Russian energy, such as natural gas and oil. Nevertheless, the invasion continues today.
The End of Economic Supremacy
Furthermore, looking at President Trump's policy announcements since his reelection, he effectively advocates for "decoupling" from China. This would come through a near-total halt of prior economic exchanges.
China, too, is hardly reluctant to use economic threats or various means of retaliation when it is displeased with something affecting its politics or security interests. The trend reinforces the reality that, in the foreign relations of a sovereign state, the economy serves as a means, not an end.
It also stands in contrast to the ideology of economic supremacy, which asserts that the economy is the ultimate priority of a state.
How Japan Can Navigate 2025
So, what do these international trends mean for Japan in the coming year?
Each of the four pillars presents deeply complex issues that will require Japan to fundamentally rethink its operations. For example, postwar Japan's adherence to concepts of national polity and foreign policy conflicts with these emerging trends. The challenges begin with clarifying the definition of national sovereignty.
In addition, Japan will find itself needing to face the limits of international cooperation, the effectiveness of military power, and the collapse of economic supremacy.
How can we as a nation flexibly respond to this flux in international affairs?
It seems fair to say that 2025 will be a turning point where Japan must reassess the effectiveness of its foundations.
Follow our special New Year's series, Predictions 2025.
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Author: Yoshihisa Komori, Associate Correspondent, Washington, The Sankei Shimbun
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