The New Year is supposed to bring fresh hopes and aspirations. Yet, as Japan enters 2025, the East Asian powerhouse confronts many challenges.
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is in one of its weakest positions in the postwar after its defeat in October's Lower House elections. For the first time in 15 years, the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the chamber. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, meanwhile, struggles with dwindling approval ratings and internal support.
Regional instability is also fueling anxieties. Neighboring South Korea continues to grapple with the fallout from President Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law blunder in December. Should Yoon be formally ousted, Ishiba risks losing his most significant regional ally.
Amplifying the hurdles is Donald Trump's return to the White House. Under a second Trump tenure, Washington may look to overhaul its traditional policy lines vis-a-vis Northeast Asia. Tokyo, for instance, could be pressured to increase its defense burden-sharing or renegotiate the bilateral security pact for greater reciprocity.
All of this comes at a critical juncture as North Korea elevates its military partnership with Russia. Together with China, these nations are poised to leverage the current turbulence to reshape the regional and global order in their favor.
Can Japan weather the looming storm? The short answer is yes. The nation has, time and again, demonstrated remarkable resilience and an unparalleled ability to overcome the most formidable challenges.
That said, the road ahead will demand strategic recalibration and a commitment to adapt.
Future of Tokyo-Seoul Relations
President Yoon's parliamentary impeachment on December 14 sent shockwaves across the world. For Japan, it meant more than just the potential collapse of another conservative government in South Korea.
Many understand that if Yoon's court-ordered ouster goes through, liberal Lee Jae Myung would most likely take over the helm. Lee, of course, is no Yoon. A longstanding critic of the president's pro-Japan policies, Lee may seek to undermine or reverse Yoon's hard-won progress if elected. This may include the landmark third-party settlement scheme over the wartime labor dispute.
Japan's best hope may be to pray for Yoon's political survival. However, if he falls, a left-wing government would certainly bring historical disputes back to the forefront of bilateral tensions. As witnessed during the previous liberal Moon Jae In era, such a shift could utterly derail cooperation on economic and security fronts.
For a More Durable Partnership
Whether Yoon stays in office or not, both sides must undertake meaningful adjustments for a more durable relationship. In diplomacy, securing a good deal is far from enough. Leaders need to skillfully communicate and justify their policies to their citizens. This entails persuading their respective populace that maintaining positive bilateral ties serves their national interest. Tokyo and Seoul have both fallen short in this regard.
For its part, South Korea needs to understand that history is rarely so black and white. Complex nuances underpin every historical event, from the issue of comfort women to wartime labor mobilization. Unfortunately, these nuances have often been neglected in pursuit of a singular fit-all narrative.
Japan, on the other hand, should acknowledge that its imperialist history remains a source of lasting pain for many in its neighboring countries. What is required from Tokyo is an empathetic approach that involves a genuine effort to understand the other side, heart to heart. Without it, even the most well-crafted agreements are bound to fail.
Had the Ishiba administration embraced this approach early on, debacles like the Sado Mine Memorial controversy in November 2024 could have been avoided.
Moreover, the success of any diplomatic endeavor hinges on a willingness to meet halfway. It is about compromise. Tokyo must not forget that its swift rapprochement with Seoul owes much to Yoon's extended olive branch. The newly forged trilateral partnership with their mutual ally, the United States, also stems from this gesture.
Navigating Trump 2.0
Yoon's martial law decree was not the only shock-and-awe moment of the preceding year. American allies in the Far East were similarly astonished by Donald Trump's landslide victory in the November US Presidential election. Alongside this was the Republican takeover of both houses of Congress.
Pundits have noted this historic event as a mandate granted by American voters to Trump — a mandate to complete the unfinished MAGA project from his first tenure.
A full-thrust MAGA agenda may be good news for those in the US. But for Japan, it could be a cause for concern. Trump's past and recent remarks indicate a more assertive approach to East Asia than the one he previously pursued.
During his first term, Trump frequently accused Japan of free-riding on American security guarantees, urging Tokyo to contribute more to the cost of US bases in Japan. In a 2019 interview, he vehemently protested the lack of reciprocity in the bilateral security pact.
Transactional Diplomacy
Beyond the security realm, Trump has also suggested imposing a blanket across-the-board tariff globally. For an export-driven economy like Japan, the implications are significant. Besides, there is always the risk of retaliatory measures from countries affected by America's heavy-handed approach. The negative impact on international commerce could be overwhelming in such a tit-for-tat trade war.
However, despite his seemingly capricious tendencies, Trump has remained consistent on one front. His foreign policy is largely transactional, with little regard for value-driven diplomacy. At his core, Trump is a dealmaker who rarely sees the world as a zero-sum game. When an opportunity arises, and America stands to gain, he is unlikely to walk away empty-handed.
This means Tokyo officials must engage with Trump and his circle not as traditional diplomats but as astute businessmen. They need to emphasize the values behind their policy objectives and present them as tangible contributions to advancing Trump's MAGA agenda.
Ishiba should also leverage every diplomatic channel available to forge a personal rapport with Trump. Masayoshi Son and Akie Abe's recent meetings with the President-elect signal a promising start.
Toward Strategic Autonomy
Trump's unconventional approach to diplomacy could also open unexpected opportunities for Japan. The President-elect's hardline rhetoric toward Tokyo, aimed at strengthening its security posture, may not be entirely unfounded.
Lessons from NATO's struggles in times of crisis — marked by ill-preparedness and over-reliance on US military support — should serve as a cautionary tale.
For Japan, building a resilient and self-sufficient armed force should no longer be an ideal but a necessity. The country must further boost its military budgets and modernize defense capabilities to remain competitive in modern warfare. Equally important is strengthening the domestic defense industrial base to enhance strategic autonomy.
Trump's return may also be the right moment to revisit discussions on revising Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles and Article Nine of the Constitution. With the looming possibility of a hot war in Northeast Asia, time is of the essence. There is no better leader to spearhead this conversation than Ishiba, a former defense minister and a known Gunji Otaku – a military geek.
Seize the Unexpected Opportunities
Trump's return could also allow Tokyo to revitalize its ties with Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang. Japan should continue to promote and defend liberal democracy whenever possible.
However, the threats posed by the so-called "new axis of the malign" are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. Moreover, Japan's geopolitical disposition makes it impossible for her to fully decouple or detach from these countries.
No matter how unpalatable it may seem to engage with the new axis powers, dialogue remains crucial in diplomacy. Even in times of war, adversaries maintain a direct line of communication. With Japan entangled in thorny territorial disputes with two of these countries and limited progress on the North Korean abduction issue, there are plenty of reasons to resume serious talks.
Give Ishiba a Chance
When Ishiba assumed office last October, many at home and abroad regarded his leadership with a sense of unease. Although he had a degree of public support, his backing within the party remained notably weak.
It was somewhat expected. Over the years, Ishiba had often voiced opinions that diverged from mainstream party positions. This included occasionally taking jabs at the late Shinzo Abe during his most vulnerable moments. Nevertheless, despite speculations that Ishiba's tenure would be short-lived, his administration has shown surprising stability.
Before Ishiba became prime minister, I had the privilege of interviewing him twice, once over Zoom and once in person. Our conversation convinced me that Ishiba is a man of both confidence and intellectual depth.
Unlike many politicians, he did not shy away from tough questions or hesitate to address sensitive topics openly. He also possesses, as I see it, a vision of where he intends to steer the country.
Of course, the prime minister is not without his flaws. Chief among them, I believe, is his lack of resolve and charisma needed to advance the agenda he so passionately champions.
That said, it has been less than three months since Shigeru Ishiba took the reins. Whether one supports him or not, he deserves a chance to lead. The time to evaluate the merits of his policies will come later.
Follow our special New Year's series, Predictions 2025.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
