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Happy New Year 2025 from all of us here at JAPAN Forward.
January 1 is the day we launch our annual "Predictions" project in which selected contributors look ahead to what the new year is likely to bring from the perspectives of their respective fields. First, however, I would like to offer my personal best wishes for the new year and express my gratitude to all our readers and contributors.
At JAPAN Forward, we believe that Japan can play a pivotal role in shaping a better future for the world.
Ending the World's Conflicts
Who can bring a halt to the proliferation of wars around the world? Finding the answer to that question is especially important in 2025 when we mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Unless we can end the tragedies of conflicts in various places, the world may again be in danger of becoming embroiled in a major conflagration.
Yet, there is cause for hope. On January 20, Donald Trump will take office as president of the United States. His inauguration will usher in the second Trump administration.
"We will make America great again."
That exclamation by Trump has brought reactions of expectation, anxiety, and opposition both in the US and abroad. However, there is no denying that lofty expectations are being placed on the incoming US administration. Trump won in all battleground states in the recent US presidential election. Moreover, the Republican Party he leads also took control of both houses of Congress.
Is there anyone other than Trump who would have the requisite power needed to stop the conflicts that bring only cycles of destruction, killing, and hatred? Who else could create the opportunity and pave the way for their resolution?
A Global Leadership Vacuum
Looking at the world from a global perspective, European politics are becoming unstable. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government in Germany — which leads the European Union (EU) — collapsed in November 2024. France, too, has suffered a cabinet collapse.
In the United Kingdom after 14 years, the Labor Party returned to power with Keir Starmer as prime minister. However, it is unclear whether he will be able to exercise global leadership. Also, although Italy is currently enjoying political stability, the future of that nation, too, remains uncertain.
Canada holds the G7 presidency for 2025. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be forced to step down.
As for Japan, following a punishing defeat in the October general election, the coalition government led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is now in the minority. Moreover, there will be an Upper House election this summer.
Among the leaders of the G7 countries, Trump is the only one enjoying political conditions that allow him to exert strong leadership.
Conflicts Around the World
February will mark the beginning of the fourth year since Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine. At the end of 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia enjoys superiority on the battlefield. However, that assertion is belied by the fact that Moscow has had to turn to North Korea, a junior-partner dictatorship, for weapons and soldiers to fight its war.
Russia was also the most important military backer of the Assad regime in Syria. With Russia weakened, the Assad regime collapsed in short order, and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia. Iran, which had supported the Assad regime for many years, also gave up on it.
Ending wars often requires domestic exhaustion and a heaven-sent opportunity. Japan is not the only country hoping that 2025, the 80th anniversary of the end of the last global war, will prove such a moment in time.
"I will end the war in Ukraine."
That was a public pledge made by Trump. Only his involvement as leader of America, a nuclear-armed military superpower like Russia, offers hope for ending the fighting.
China Targets the Senkaku Islands
What China does matters greatly to Japan and, indeed, all of Asia. Beijing has converted reclaimed artificial islands in other countries' waters of the South China Sea into military bases. Moreover, it shows no hesitation in stealing technology and territory belonging to others.
Even now, China's pursuit of hegemonic power threatens the security of the United States. With Trump promising to use "high tariffs" as a weapon to pressure China, the already struggling Chinese economy will likely be pushed into even tougher circumstances.
Corruption has become widespread within the Chinese military. Therefore, some experts actually say it would be difficult for Beijing to bring a resistant Taiwan to heel through force.
The question then becomes what Xi Jinping will do to maintain his power if unification with Taiwan proves difficult. He is aware that the end of his current term as China's president is approaching in 2027.
How to Deflect Domestic Disquiet
When I visited Taipei in the autumn of 2024, I exchanged views with experts regarding security issues affecting Japan and Taiwan. It surprised me to find that no one foresaw a Taiwan crisis resulting in heavy bloodshed for both Taiwan and China. In fact, the opinion was voiced that China was more likely to seize the Senkaku Islands.
Year after year China has been gradually increasing its intrusions into the vicinity of the Senkaku Islands. It has violated Japanese territorial waters and airspace as a tactic for gradually gaining control over the area. The Japan Coast Guard admits that it finds itself in a "very difficult situation" on the spot in the Senkakus.
Meanwhile, the Xi Jinping regime has apparently concluded that there are far fewer risks of a military confrontation in landing Chinese forces on "islands that are home to only goats" (referring to the Senkakus) than trying to invade Taiwan. Moreover, if Japan resisted China's invasion, Beijing's leadership could strongly appeal to patriotic forces to "defend China's territory." Such calls for unity would further help by containing domestic criticism of the regime.
Abundant fishing resources surround the Senkaku Islands. They are also blessed with other natural resources, such as oil and natural gas, under the sea bottom. China's leadership is bargaining that access to these could ensure the survival of the Communist regime.
Will Japan Awaken to the Imminent Danger?
If a Senkaku emergency actually occurs, developed countries such as Japan and the United States would likely impose economic sanctions against China.
There is a bigger question, however. If a nuclear-armed China seizes the Senkaku Islands, would Japan make the decision to go to war with China to retake them? Up to now, the Japanese media and the Diet have barely debated this issue.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba should meet with Trump in January to deepen bilateral discussions and promptly begin preparations to respond to a possible Senkaku emergency. Ishiba must also speak directly to the Japanese people and the world about how to respond to this looming crisis.
Military strength is essential to creating enduring peace. We must explain how the current global situation has even forced Japan to discuss the acquisition of nuclear weapons, a subject that has been taboo for nearly eight decades since the end of the war.
The time has arrived for Japan to break decisively away from the postwar era. We must transform our nation into a new Japan and awaken to reality.
Most Japanese people believe and hope that by valuing peace, we can bring hope and stability to a world shrouded in darkness.
In the coming days, JAPAN Forward aims to convey these hopes and concerns from various perspectives, along with how Japan is preparing to deal with a potential Senkaku Islands emergency.
Follow our special New Year's series, Predictions 2025.
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Author: Yasuo Naito, Editor-in-Chief, JAPAN Forward
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