Happy New Year to JAPAN Forward and SportsLook readers. We are pleased to bring you "Predictions 2025," a special New Year's series sharing the foresight and expectations of selected contributors for the coming year in their fields of specialty, continuing with Jim Armstrong's forecast for sumo.
Next in the Series
Heading into the New Year in sumo, fans of the sport won't have to wait long for several key questions to be answered.
The January 12-26 New Year Grand Sumo Tournament at Tokyo's Ryogoku Kokugikan is certain to reveal much about the future of sumo as it potentially enters a new era.
Yokozuna Terunofuji won his coveted 10th title at the Nagoya Tournament in July 2024 and then was absent for the final two basho as he nursed his wonky knees.
Does he still have another championship or two in him? Possibly.
But it's fairly obvious to anyone who follows the sport that Terunofuji's career is coming to an end sooner rather than later. He is 33 years old and his chances of lasting another year are slim at best.
So the question becomes this: Who will be the next grand champion?
One of the leading candidates is ozeki Kotozakura.
Kotozakura Eager to Reach the Top
By winning the final basho of 2024 (November's Kyushu Grand Sumo Tournament), Kotozakura put himself in a position to be considered for promotion to the sport's highest rank of yokozuna with a strong result in the New Year Basho.
At 27, he knows now is the time to seize the day.
"There aren't many opportunities to challenge for yokozuna so I have to grab it," Kotozakura was quoted as saying by Kyodo News after his first title. "My only choice is to go for it now."
Despite his impressive win in Fukuoka, there are some who think Kotozakura still has much to prove.
First of all, there is the manner in which the ozeki won his first makuuchi division championship.
On the final day of the Kyushu meet, Kotozakura defeated Hoshoryu by what was ruled a hatakikomi (slap-down) win to improve to 14-1 and seal the title.
While he did manage to get a hand on the back of Hoshoryu, some saw the win more as a result of the Mongolian slipping on the sandy surface.
Was it a slip-up? Only Hoshoryu knows for sure. However, the fact remains that many didn't see it as a dominant, decisive victory.
Predictions Aplenty for Kotozakura
But one can't judge the tournament championship in just one bout. Kotozakura was impressive throughout the Kyushu Basho with huge wins over the likes of Onosato and Takanosho.
Then there is the question of consistency. Kotozakura has mostly posted winning records since being promoted to ozeki ahead of the March tournament in 2024.
But in the September tournament, he barely eked out a winning record of 8-7 and he looked lost at times.
If he can win the New Year Basho in convincing fashion, he will garner consideration for promotion to grand champion, a rank his grandfather held in the 1970s.
Predictions for Onosato
Another grappler looking to reignite his prospects of rising to the pinnacle of the sport is ozeki Onosato.
Onosato won two championships in 2024, in May as a komusubi and then in September as a sekiwake.
In his debut at the sport's second-highest rank in Kyushu, Onosato cobbled together a respectable 9-6 record. But he will need to be more dominant as an ozeki before he will be considered for yokozuna.
It certainly seems within his grasp. His performance in the New Year tourney will go a long way in determining his future.
Terunofuji Remains a Question Mark Due to Injuries
Following his July 2024 triumph in Nagoya, Terunofuji missed two straight tournaments due to a variety of ailments, including his injured knees.
After Terunofuji withdrew from the Kyushu meet in November, his stablemaster Isegahama vowed the Mongolian would be ready for the New Year tournament. But his participation is always a question mark.
Hoshoryu Fueled by Determination
Hoshoryu will be eager to bounce back from the bitter loss to Kotozakura on the final day of the Kyushu meet.
That would have given him his second Emperor's Cup and improved his chance of following in the footsteps of his uncle Asashoryu, who was a great yokozuna back in the 2000s.
Ozeki Hoshoryu is still just 25 and he heads into the January tournament with a shot at promotion to grand champion.
"I want to stay focused on my brand of sumo without thinking about things like yokozuna promotion," Hoshoryu said, according to Kyodo News.
Keep an Eye on Takerufuji
Further down the ranks, it's worth keeping an eye on Takerufuji. He's not a yokozuna candidate but could have a year that could see him rocket up the rankings.
Up-and-coming grappler Takerufuji jolted the sumo world when he won the Spring Basho to become the first wrestler in 110 years to win a championship in his top-division debut.
But the historic victory took a toll as Takerufuji injured his ankle and then missed the next two tournaments due to injury. As a result, he was demoted to the second-tier juryo division.
After winning the juryo division championship in September, Takerufuji was right back in the elite division for the Kyushu meet where he went a very respectable 10-5 as No 16 maegashira.
If he is able to continue his steady progress from injury, Takerufuji could find himself right in the mix of the title chase at the New Year tournament and the other basho in 2025.
Other championship candidates are Takanosho and Abi.
RELATED:
- Read other predictions from our series, Predictions 2025
- Follow the New Year Basho and other sumo news on SportsLook.
- Predictions 2024: Questions Aplenty as Sumo Embarks on a New Year
Author: Jim Armstrong
The author is a longtime journalist who has covered sports in Japan for over 25 years. You can find his articles on SportsLook.
