Santa Claus has come for the first time in four years. I have often said that an American presidential election result is like a Christmas gift. We should not voice our preferences. Instead, when we open the gift box, we should exclaim, "Oh, this is exactly what I wanted!" After all, we all have to live with the choices Americans make. This time, the box contained the 45th President, Donald Trump.
Countries around the world are buzzing about how to cope with the so-called Trump 2.0. Japan is no exception. The late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had cordial relations with President Trump. People in Japan are expressing concerns about whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba can do the same. Interestingly, they are often the same people who grumbled about Mr Abe for overly kowtowing to Mr Trump. They complained that Mr Abe was mocked in some European countries and sacrificed national dignity.
An Unconventional Approach
It was both wise and necessary for Prime Minister Abe to establish such relations. As the leader of a country with challenging neighbors and heavy reliance on the United States for security, this approach was crucial.
I had known Mr Abe for years, from the time he used to carry his father's bags as a private secretary. He was a person who was not shy in doing seemingly untraditional things in order to achieve his goal. We all remember the scene where he suddenly appeared in the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro dressed as Super Mario. He did it because he thought it would help to bring the next Olympic Games to Tokyo.
As such, I was not surprised when he visited Trump Tower with the gift of gold color golf clubs to see the President-elect. Of course, it was not in line with precedence and breached protocol. However, as we all know, it opened an opportunity for him to establish a one-on-one relationship with Mr Trump by playing golf.
More Than Chemistry
Chemistry between leaders is no doubt important. I myself have sat in meetings and witnessed warm, friendly relations between President George W Bush and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone established a special relationship with President Ronald Reagan. Many in Japan at the time referred to it as Ron-Yasu relations.
It should be emphasized, however, that chemistry has always been and will be only a part of the whole picture. We should not blow it out of proportion. For instance, have you ever heard of leaders dining or playing golf together after their terms were over? Bluntly put, they appreciate each other as working partners.
To establish effective relations with US Presidents, a foreign leader must have a strong basis in his or her own country. Mr Koizumi was popular and a strong leader. He relentlessly punished those who defied him. PM Nakasone was also a powerful leader, strong enough to choose his own successor. Both Koizumi and Nakasone served five years, which is exceptionally long for Japan.
Power and Strategy
Mr Abe also stood out as a strong leader. Under his leadership, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won all the national elections. He was the de facto leader of the biggest faction in the biggest party, the LDP. Abe skillfully leveraged the influence of two key deputies: LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga. As a result, he served nearly eight consecutive years, the longest in Japan's history.
To be a powerful leader, earning Mr Trump's respect is especially important. If you consider the leaders who were close to him during his first term, this is obvious. Such leaders included Recep Erdogan of Turkey, Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, Viktor Orban of Hungary, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman au Saud of Saudi Arabia, Vladimir Putin of Russia, Kim Jong Un of North Korea, and the late Silvio Berlusconi of Italy.
The Importance of Collaboration
Lastly, perhaps the most important of all is collaboration on major issues. In the case of Mr Bush, this was exemplified by his declaration, "Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists."
PM Koizumi, Prime Minister Tony Blair of the United Kingdom, and Australian Prime Minister John Howard were staunch supporters of Mr Bush regarding the Iraq War. Koizumi went out of his way to send, for the first time in history, Japan's Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) out of Japan to the Middle East region to logistically support the US and other allied countries. President Bush, on his part, did not object to Mr Koizumi's policy on North Korea.
During his term, Mr Nakasone appeared on a special television program with various charts. To the nation's astonishment, he appealed to the Japanese public to buy more American products to decrease our huge trade surpluses with the US.
In Mr Abe's case, he decided to change the long-established interpretation of the Constitution to enable Japan to exercise collective self-defense. This move, however, came amid an uproar from opposition parties. He enacted this legislation for Japan's security policy based on his own conviction two years before Mr Trump's presidency. Because of this, he was able to explain to Mr Trump that Japan's bilateral security arrangements are not one-sided.
Diplomacy Done Right
Moreover, Mr Abe presented Mr Trump with a map of the US with sites where Japanese companies were planning to make investments. Additionally, he indicated the amount of investment and estimated number of employees. Japan and Germany rapidly increased investments in the US during the Trump years.
Since 2019, Japan has become the number one foreign investor in the US, overtaking the US. This map must have been a very effective gift to Mr Trump as he had been pledging to increase investments from foreign countries to create jobs for American workers. Mr Trump, for his part, did not oppose Japan moving forward with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) despite the US not participating.
In a nutshell, Japanese leaders who maintained strong relationships with American presidents also held solid positions domestically. They effectively leveraged these positions to meet the presidents' expectations while securing what they needed in return.
Capitalizing on Security Gains
So, how will Mr Ishiba's scorecard be in light of these criteria? As for his domestic position, it is yet to be consolidated. He will have to do it through future elections.
Trump 2.0's expectations remain unclear for now. We should avoid speculating or expressing concern until they are revealed. Dealers, however, are usually attentive, as this allows them to gauge where to make their move.
Japan can showcase impressive achievements in the security area under former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. These include doubling defense spending over five years to reach 2% of GDP. Japan has also acquired second-strike capabilities, purchasing 400 Tomahawk missiles from the US. Additionally, a joint command center has been established in Tokyo, integrating the JSDF with the US military. All of these were unthinkable during Trump 1.0.
Ishiba's Path Forward
As for the economic side, private companies are the ones who decide whether to invest in the US. At present, the picture is not too rosy. The weak yen is not helpful in boosting Japanese investments in the US.
Moreover, hindrances regarding Nippon Steel purchasing US Steel can negatively affect the psychologies of decision-makers of large companies. We can only hope that SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son will not be a lone ranger and that others will continue to increase their investments in the United States as well.
All in all, it will not be so easy for Mr Ishiba. What Japanese people should recognize is that it is not because of his personal quality or character. It is because of the broader situation I described above. We must realize that since we have Mr Ishiba as our leader, it is better for all of us to let him do his work. Political, economic, and other leaders should now refrain from rushing individually to Mr Trump, even if they are welcomed.
We should strengthen our champion, Mr Ishiba's position, and enable him to represent Japan's interests most effectively. That is not for his sake but for all of us. This is the lesson Mr Nakasone, Mr Koizumi, and Mr Abe left for us.
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Author: Ichiro Fujisaki
