The reelection of Donald J Trump not only has profound (and exciting) implications for domestic matters in the United States but also for the world in 2025. In the days and weeks since the election on November 5, it is clear that his agenda, policies, and personnel represent a revolution, It is the first big one since the founding of the country 250 years earlier.
While the first Trump Administration (2017-2021) was quite successful ー bringing great prosperity at home and abroad and starting no new wars ー I believe the second Trump Administration will be even more effective. That means countries like Japan can only benefit. In other words, a strong America is good for the world.
President Trump's domestic and foreign policy agenda will be enhanced by the highly qualified and unique talent he brings into the administration. He is the first one to admit that the biggest mistake in his earlier term was his personnel decisions. He is committed to not allowing that to happen again.
Regarding foreign policy, I believe he will seek the following four main objectives early on, and in the following order. This list of objectives does not mean other issues are not important. Nor does it mean that new problems will not appear that could delay or stymie his focus of efforts. He will address these outstanding issues in the coming four years because he is constitutionally limited to serving only this one more term. Some have emerged in recent years and already profoundly impacted the United States.
War in Ukraine
For Trump, first and foremost will be ending the war in Ukraine and repairing relations with Russia. The history of events leading up to the invasion of Ukraine requires a separate commentary. However, suffice it to say, actions and decisions by Ukraine, the United States, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are also to blame for the tragedy that has killed or maimed more than 1 million people and displaced approximately 11 million.
The war in Ukraine has also been a strategic blunder for the West in that it brought Russia and the People's Republic of China closer together. Ending the war and repairing relations with Russia will help separate the two and isolate the PRC. It will also allow the United States to refocus its priorities on the greater threat of the PRC.
Peace Talks in the Middle East
Second on the Trump Administration's foreign policy agenda will be ending the Gaza conflict. Along with it, he will be restarting the Middle East peace process that was disrupted due to his contentious loss in the 2020 presidential election. Doing so will allow the situation in the region to de-escalate and the United States to refocus on the Indo-Pacific.
Taiwan
Third on the foreign policy agenda will be deepening ties with Taiwan, which were moving very quickly during Trump I, and distancing itself from the PRC.
I expect Trump to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country. This will anger the PRC, which describes such a move as its "red line," although the PRC has no legal claim to Taiwan. It would likely lead to a rupture in PRC-US relations. However, I doubt many in the incoming Trump Administration would worry about it. Most of them see the PRC as an illegitimate country, and the Chinese Communist Party as especially so anyway. Delegitimizing the PRC and CCP will be a key component of Trump II's policy toward the PRC, along with decoupling economically.
Some may view this with alarm. However, no one, including the majority of the people of Taiwan, wants the PRC in control of Taiwan. Said another way, this is an example of escalating to de-escalate. The incoming Trump Administration, filled with those who truly know the evils of the PRC, would have its foot on the accelerator.
A Beacon of Hope for the Mainland
I recently completed a one-year fellowship in Taiwan. During one of my last dinners there before my return to Japan, I spoke with a highly informed Southeast Asian businessman of Chinese heritage. His first visit to the PRC was in the latter days of the "Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution" fifty years ago.
He made a very interesting comment. "It would be the PRC," he stated, "not Taiwan, that would be most affected by US recognition of Taiwan as a state." In other words, he continued, "Taiwanese already see themselves as a thriving, democratic, prosperous, and independent nation. The Chinese people want the same and many envy Taiwan. [Chinese President] Xi Jinping would completely lose control of his country if the US recognized Taiwan."
Peace with North Korea?
Finally, a fourth aspect of Trump's foreign policy will be negotiating a peace treaty with North Korea, a long-time demand of the latter country. Such a peace treaty, however, will be dependent on North Korea not joining with the PRC in any attempts to intimidate Taiwan after recognition by the United States.
Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, knows this. He will likely be unwilling to join hands with the PRC then, further isolating the PRC.
Opportunity for Japan
All of the above foreign policies of the next Trump Administration will have a positive effect on Japan and open up new opportunities for it as well. I hope Japan supports the incoming Trump Administration on the above initiatives.
But for Japan to do so, it will have to speed up its decision-making process and overhaul its information-gathering system of relying on fellow elites and legacy media.
The Trump Administration is taking on both the Establishment and old media. This may be too difficult for the current ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito to do. Japan may need its own political and social revolution soon as well, like the one taking place in the United States.
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Author: Robert D Eldridge
Dr Eldridge is the author of JAPAN Forward's best-read article of 2024, picked up by hundreds of thousands of our readers: New Year's Earthquake: Disaster Resilience is a Societal Responsibility. His books include "The Necessary Commander and the Unnecessary Fight: Colonel Nakagawa Kunio and the Battle of Peleliu" (Reed International, 2024).
