Four years of the decade 2020s have just passed, during which the world saw tumultuous events. It was a period largely defined by a pandemic and regional conflict of gigantic proportions. Leadership has changed in some crucial countries as incumbent leaders were rebuked at the polls. The consequences have shaped geopolitics and alliances that have taken the world to the edge. Yet, the search for peace and stability continues into 2025.
This review analyses some of the major developments that the region witnessed and what to expect next.
Waiting for President-elect Donald Trump
Soon the United States will have a new president, Donald Trump, who has threatened to rewrite some global rules. What and how he would do so remains unclear, however.
The future of the ongoing Sino-US trade rivalry and global leadership could see some ugly developments. Also, if Trump reaches out to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, it could unsettle the alliance relationship with South Korea.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine crisis remains in limbo and there is no clarity on what course Trump would take to facilitate resolving the conflict. Similarly, there are concerns about how his administration would deal with the growing bonhomie between China and Russia and the suspected Russia-China-North Korea nexus.
Japan and South Korea are both US alliance partners. They should expect Trump to pressure them to shoulder a greater share of the security burden. However, there is also ongoing political instability in South Korea. Under the circumstances, North Korea could take advantage of the instability by indulging in provocations with unforeseen consequences. The regional security scenario could then be dramatically altered.
Given Mr Trump's unpredictability, if the Russia-China relationship moves to a higher plane, the future of Asia at large could be anybody's guess.
There are also signs of instability in Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. These would pose challenges to Trump, who would be compelled to recalibrate US East Asia policy.
China Advances
Of the three main Northeast Asian countries, President Xi Jinping seems to be under control in China. However, there are signs of fissures at home that could pose some challenges, although they seem surmountable for him. Xi is likely to continue his military modernization programs and salami-slicing strategy of territorial advancement. That would keep regional tensions alive.
Xi would of course understand that Trump will not be a lamb for slaughter and therefore choose the path of peace rather than confrontation with him.
As regards Taiwan, China is unlikely to change its stated stance that the island is a Chinese territory. Xi wants to integrate the Island with the mainland either through peaceful means or by the use of force, if necessary. China is likely to continue its provocative activities by intruding into Taiwan's airspace and intimidation with a view to unsettle Taiwan and bring it into submission.
Japan's Political Uncertainty
Shigeru Ishiba was elected as Japan's new leader after then Liberal Democratic Party P) leader Fumio Kishida stepped back in September. Subsequently, Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito alliance lost its overwhelming majority in a snap election. The ruling coalition secured 215 seats, leaving it 18 short of a majority. Such an outcome risks Ishiba taking Japan into another period of political uncertainty.
The election results revealed three key things about the state of Japanese politics and what comes next.
Prime Minister's Mandate
First, Prime Minister Ishiba has been unable to strengthen the party base and stabilize his administration. His administration is now more likely to be short-lived. Being aware of his vulnerability, he abandoned his previously more critical stance after the election and prioritized carrying on the policies of the mainstream LDP. That left some of his supporters feeling betrayed.
No Left-wing Government
Second, the ruling coalition was punished but the people of Japan did not vote for a change of government. The opposition remains divided. Despite its gains in this election, the largest opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is not fully committed to leading the opposition and consolidating it into a coalition. The CDP also suffers from deep internal divisions. Its left wing prefers a coalition with the Japan Communist Party, while its right wing doesn't want a coalition with either right or left wing parties.
Small Parties Hold Sway
Third, following the October election, minor parties such as the Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) could be crucial for the Ishiba administration to pass legislation. Holding on to 38 seats, party leader Nobuyuki Baba was happy that Ishin could prevent the ruling coalition from gaining a majority in the October election. The party's aim to become an alternative to the ruling party remains out of reach, however.
Meanwhile, Ishiba could also be too welcoming of Ishin's cooperation. He risks conceding policy points to the demands of the minority party to carry out government functions.
Another Election in 2025
The Prime Minister has hinted at the possibility of a double election in the summer. An Upper House election is expected to be held about 20 July under the Public Offices law. He has suggested calling a snap election for the Lower House of the Diet on the same day.
Ishiba argues that no rule disallows holding elections for both chambers of the Diet on the same day. Also, he is aware that he heads a minority government and couldn't survive a no-confidence motion against his Cabinet if opposition parties come together to table one. Prime ministers Masayoshi Ohira and Yasuhiro Nakasone also held same-day elections for both chambers in the past.
Prime Minister Ishiba knows that the ruling bloc LDP-Komeito combination cannot pass a budget or legislation without opposition support because it does not have a majority in the Lower House. If the opposition unites, they could pass a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet. Article 69 of the Constitution stipulates that the Lower House must be dissolved or the Cabinet must resign within 10 days if such a motion is passed. In the meantime, Ishiba's meeting with Trump is still not fixed.
Political Instability in South Korea
Ongoing political instability in South Korea is a matter of concern. December 2024 was an unprecedented month of political upheaval, from the shocking declaration of martial law to the impeachments of President Yoon Suk-yeol and acting President Han Duk-soo.
The charge against Han was that he refused to appoint judges to fill vacancies at the Constitutional Court hearing Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law case. Therefore, he was also impeached.
With Han out of the way, Choi Sang-mok, deputy prime minister and minister of economy and finance, took charge of managing the government's future. The December 3 martial law declaration revealed a new political reality where basic survival instincts seemed to dominate. Han's impeachment stirred more political chaos as the country struggled to shake off the turmoil sparked by Yoon's martial law declaration. Han was impeached when 192 lawmakers in the 300-member parliament voted for the motion against him.
Finance Minister Now Acting President
Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok is a no-nonsense man. He had strongly objected to Yoon's martial law decree during a Cabinet meeting shortly before Yoon's declaration. Choi also disapproved of the plan to impeach Han, saying it would seriously damage the country's economy.
At the heart of the current row is the composition of the Constitutional Court, which is currently short of three judges. While it can go ahead with its six members on the bench, a single dissenting vote would reinstate Yoon.
Han's refusal to approve three nominees to fill the nine-member bench led to his impeachment, expanding the political crisis that has plunged the nation into "semi-anarchy." In this fast-paced political development, there is no clarity as to whether Choi will appoint the three justices to the Constitutional Court or if he prefers to resign. In this scenario, political uncertainties are likely to multiply rather than diminish.
In the meantime, a South Korean court approved the arrest of President Yoon related to the martial law investigation. This marks the first time a sitting president of the country has faced arrest. A Reuters story on the issue observed that the arrest warrant for an incumbent president was unprecedented. If Yoon is arrested, he would be held at the Seoul Detention Center.
These factors all deepen the political crisis that has engulfed South Korea. The country is Asia's fourth-largest economy and a key regional United States ally.
Follow our special New Year's series, Predictions 2025.
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Author: Rajaram Panda
Dr Rajaram Panda is a senior scholar on Japan. His latest book is titled India and Japan: Past, Present and Future, by Knowledge World Publisher (2024).
