Quad Solidarity, Regional Security Threatened by Cooling India-US Relations

Indian media have reported that the Quad Leaders' Summit scheduled for November in India may be canceled.

The "Quad" is a framework for diplomatic cooperation between Japan, the United States, Australia, and India. It is committed to supporting a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

The prevailing view is that the cooling of US-India relations would be the main cause for the cancellation. Domestic issues and differences in their positions regarding trade among the participating countries are also cited as reasons for the postponement.

US President Donald Trump reportedly has already indicated that he will not attend the summit. Meanwhile, the cracks in Quad solidarity are surely welcomed by China, which is seeking to expand its military influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

If China is to be deterred, the special US-India relationship that underpins the Quad must not regress. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi should work to improve bilateral relations.

Unhelpful Reactions

The Trump administration has accused India of purchasing massive quantities of Russian crude oil at low prices, even as that country continues its invasion of Ukraine. It has therefore imposed a 50% punitive tariff on India. And India has reacted furiously to the US move.

Trump's boasting that he had "resolved" the May military conflict between India and Pakistan and his invitation to the head of the Pakistani military to the White House have also incensed India. That is because the position of successive Indian governments has been that there is no room for third parties to intervene in its disputes with Pakistan.

In line with its "strategic autonomy" diplomacy, India has long maintained a non-aligned stance. Even during the Cold War, it refused to side with either the Soviet Union or the United States. 

Nonetheless, India has long been embroiled in a border dispute with China. And it joined the Quad because it valued the common interest of "dealing with the threat from China." 

India's Risky Stance

However, observers have noted that, in light of the cooling of relations with the US, India has begun to adopt a stance of not provoking China. In fact, Modi visited China for the first time in seven years in August. Officially, he went to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

In his summit meeting with Xi, Modi expressed a positive view on improving relations with China. With the US high tariff policy in mind, Modi declared, "In the face of uncertainty in the global economy, it is important for India and China to strengthen cooperation." 

Nonetheless, it is imperative for regional security that India stay a part of the Quad.

Hopefully, Japan's next prime minister will cooperate with fellow Quad member Australia to help mediate between New Delhi and Washington. Ultimately, for the sake of the region's security, they need to arrange a meeting between Modi and Trump.

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(Read the editorial in Japanese.)

Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun