'Renewal' Likely to be Keyword in LDP Presidential Election

Political maneuvering within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is intensifying as the September election for party president fast approaches. One focus of attention among political observers in Japan is who former prime minister Yoshihide Suga will support as a candidate to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Suga is a key figure among the non-mainstream factions that have distanced themselves from Kishida. What criteria will Suga use to choose the candidate he will back? Looking back at Suga's previous comments, the keyword that keeps popping up is "renewal."

Who Will Suga Choose?

"Just changing the top spot will absolutely not suffice. If things continue as they are, we face disaster."

Recently, Suga has repeatedly expressed a strong sense of crisis about the upcoming House of Representatives election. That was reflected in comments in online media that came just after the last Diet session ended in which he essentially demanded that Kishida resign.

The turmoil surrounding the failure of numerous LDP politicians to report income from faction political fundraising parties has not abated. Furthermore, public distrust of the Kishida administration and the LDP in general has not dissipated. 

Seeking Innovation

Some see Suga's call for Kishida to step down as the opening salvo in the LDP presidential race. However, at this point, Suga has not yet decided which candidate he will support in the LDP presidential sweepstakes. Regarding the timing of his decision, Suga has told people around him, "It's still too early." He added, "It will probably be after August's Obon festival when how things are lining up will become clearer."

What is Suga focusing on when evaluating possible candidates to become the next LDP president? He has dropped hints in recent statements he made to the media concerning the LDP election.

"It presents the best opportunity to have the public understand the party's thinking about things like renewal. It also offers us a chance to respond appropriately." (Comment made during a June 23 Internet program.)

"The LDP has quite a few young and capable lawmakers. By battling it out over policies, I think we can produce motivated young people." (From an interview carried in the June 26 edition of the monthly magazine Hanada.)

Judging from these comments, it is clear that Suga wants the next LDP president to provide leadership and innovativeness that will dispel the public's current distrust of the party. Furthermore, Suga appears to believe that choosing such a new LDP president could provide the blueprint to successfully contest the next general election and avoid the risk of a change of government. 

Shinjiro Koizumi Matches Suga's Criteria

Among the lawmakers who are likely to run in the presidential election and who have close ties to Suga, the man who best fits these criteria would probably be former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi. According to public opinion polls conducted by various media outlets, Koizumi is ranked high among the public as the choice for "future prime minister." He is also still quite young. 

On the other hand, his tendency to make insubstantial statements while he was environment minister earned them the mocking label of "Shinjiro constructs." Furthermore, his advocacy of ditching nuclear power has received blowback within the party. According to a young Diet member, "A certain number of LDP members have a strong allergy to Koizumi." 

His father, former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi has said that his 43-year-old second son should not run for LDP president until he reaches age 50. A senior party figure says, "The question is whether Koizumi can decide on his own to run. No one will accept him unless he overcomes the influence of his father."

Did Ishiba Already Miss His Best Chance?

Among other leaders of non-mainstream factions, former party secretary-general Shigeru Ishiba has also been seeking to cozy up to Suga by meeting him for dinner and in other ways. Ishiba is well-versed in policy and enjoys high name recognition. But if he decides to run for party president in September, it will be his fifth try. He does not exactly evoke a feeling of "renewal."

In addition, Ishiba has sometimes criticized LDP administrations. As a young member of the party puts it, he "has earned a reputation for blurting out the 'truth' when the party finds itself in a difficult situation, thereby shooting it in the back." For that reason, Ishiba continues to lack support among LDP Diet members. 

Ishiba took the opportunity to have dinner with Suga on July 1. However, they supposedly never discussed things like who Suga would support in the LDP presidential race. A former Cabinet minister says, "Ishiba might have missed a golden opportunity to secure Suga's support."

A Rift Regarding Factions

Meanwhile, Minister for Digital Transformation Taro Kono remains a member of the Aso faction (Shikokai). It is the only faction within the LDP that has not announced its intention to dissolve itself in the wake of the party funds scandal. Even though Suga supported him during the last LDP presidential election in 2021, that faction issue appears to have created a rift between Kono and Suga who wants to do away with factions. 

A close aide to Suga makes the blunt assessment that Kono is "probably weighing support by the Aso faction against Suga's support, but things don't look likely to go that well for him." 

Opposing Views on Factions

Finally, there is Katsunobu Kato, a politician with few enemies within the LDP. He can count on widespread support among both the mainstream and non-mainstream factions. As chief cabinet secretary during the Suga administration, Kato was Suga's "right-hand man." 

Kato exudes a sense of stability and Suga has nothing but praise for his skills. However, he is not that well known to the public. Additionally, opinion is divided within the party as to whether he could serve as an effective "election face" for the LDP. 

No matter who heads up the government after the LDP election, his cabinet is bound to have a strong feeling of an "election management cabinet." This is because elections for both houses of the Diet will need to be held within roughly one year.

It must somehow break out of the oppressive atmosphere that has engulfed the LDP since the scandal concerning the unreported party funds erupted. Which candidate could take the lead in party reform and win a general election? 

Suga is poised to carefully observe the actions of the post-Kishida candidates. 

Follow JAPAN Forward on the discussion of who might succeed as prime minister in the post-Kishida era.

RELATED:

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• Takayuki Kobayashi: A Strong New Contender in the LDP
• Post-Kishida Showdown in the LDP: Who Will Be Kingmaker?
• 'Down With Kishida' Movement Within the LDP Remains Subdued

(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Yusuke Oshima, The Sankei Shimbun