The Chinese military's Eastern Theater Command published this map of military exercises around Taiwan on its official WeChat account on October 14 (©Kyodo)
"We are now in the foothills of a great power hot war." This is a recent declaration by Matt Pottinger, a China expert who served as deputy national security advisor in the Trump Administration. Pottinger is now a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution.
First of two parts
China is engaged in the largest military buildup since World War II. That is especially true for the Chinese navy. According to the Global Naval Powers Ranking (2024) compiled by the World Directory of Modern Military Warships, the navies of the United States and the People's Republic of China are now essentially equals. Each has its own comparative strengths and weaknesses.
Another recent estimate makes China the world's largest maritime fighting force. It operates 234 warships and submarines displacing more than 1,000 metric tons compared to 219 for the US Navy.
Knocking Out Installations in Japan
In a recent opinion piece in The Hill, Dan Blumenthal, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warned that China may be even now preparing a surprise attack. Beijing already has stockpiled thousands of missiles that could be used in a first-strike attack on the island democracy. He analyzes it would be designed to first knock out major US and Self-Defense Force installations and ports in Japan.
Such an attack by China would be designed to gain unchallenged air and maritime superiority. It would need this to ferry hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops across the Taiwan Strait on naval vessels and dual-use civilian ships. With that force, it could invade Taiwan, quash all resistance, and deal with "separatist" leaders.
Blumenthal admits that Xi Jinping would much rather coerce Taiwan into accepting rule from Beijing, perhaps through a tight naval quarantine. But that does not mean the Chinese leader has taken the dangerous option of an unprovoked attack off the table.
In fact, China's dictator has made his position clear on several occasions. His patience with the status quo, namely the continued existence of Taiwan as a self-governing entity, is fast wearing thin.
Experts generally agree that Xi is a calculating leader who does not act on impulse. At the same time, he appears to have a bit of a messiah complex that could impel him to roll the dice.
'Monster' Ships
Tellingly, China is currently constructing "monster" amphibious assault ships capable of carrying drones and fixed-wing aircraft. It is hard to imagine what they might be used for, other than an invasion of Taiwan.
China's undisputed leader has often stated that the world is now undergoing changes "it has not seen for 100 years." And he has made clear China's goal is to remake the global world order in concert with like-minded dictatorships. By those, he means Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
Furthermore, not only has Beijing enabled Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, but it has also become the number one financial supporter of Iran.
Xi's rhetoric within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is even clearer. Take, for example, a speech he gave in 2018 on the 200th anniversary of the birth of Karl Marx. He said that Marx's thought "was meant to change the world" and the CCP has inherited that mission. In Xi's eyes, the ultimate goal remains the "demise of capitalism and the triumph of socialism as practiced by a single-party dictatorship."
Xi's Revolutionary Fervor
It should be remembered that Xi served as president of the Party School of the Central Committee of the CCP from 2017 to 2023. He is a "true believer." Moreover, he has become convinced that many party members have become soft. In his view, they need both more backbone and more revolutionary fervor.
In short, he believes that only he, Xi Jinping, can make China great again. But his fancy is not just a China dream. It is a dream of an international order turned upside down.
Scale of the Challenge
During an August interview with the New Statesman, Pottinger contended that it is long past the time for the US to acknowledge the scale of the challenge it confronts. "We are looking at a proxy war being waged against us and our allies," he told the British news magazine. He warned that the US and its allies have perhaps two years in which to build up their defenses. That will require a crash program to rebuild their defense industries and ship defensive weapon systems to Taiwan. In other words, only military hard power will ensure China "is not tempted to resort to force."
Pottinger also argued that for the US to turn its back on Ukraine would invite greater disaster. It would cost much more in the long run to deter Vladimir Putin at the borders of Poland and the Baltic States. He dismisses the stance of those who argue that assisting Ukraine to defend itself is not worth the cost as a "penny-wise, pound-foolish policy."
If Donald Trump returns to the White House, his own transactional "America First" inclinations could wreak havoc with deterrence. That could put Japan in harm's way. According to then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, Trump used to like to compare Taiwan to the tip of his Sharpie pen and China to his desk in the Oval Office. One tiny, one huge.
In the New Statesman interview, Pottinger issues his own warning if Trump is elected. "If he indulges the minority, isolationist voices in the Republican Party, then we are much more likely to end up in a war."
Coming next: America, Ask Japan: China Is Closer Than You Think
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Author: John Carroll
John Carroll is a Kyoto-based freelance writer and JAPAN Forward contributor. He is currently writing a book on the religious traditions and superstitions of Japan's ancient capital.
