Shigeru Ishiba Wins LDP Election, Poised to Become Next PM

Shigeru Ishiba achieved a surprising win to become Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader on September 27. Along the way, he upended the result in the first round of the election, which favored rival Sanae Takaichi. Ishiba won with 215 votes against Takaichi's 194. 

A record nine candidates fought for the majority party's leadership position. Because the LDP holds the majority in Japan's parliament, the National Diet — together with the Komeito party — the winner is expected to be elected as the next prime minister. 

Reflecting on the win, Ishiba told the audience at the LDP headquarters that he would work hard to renew the party. 

"I have been involved in national security for a long time. Speaking with courage and sincerity, I will protect the country and protect the people. I will create a Japan where every person can feel happiness and security, and where every person can smile."

ー Shigeru Ishiba

He concluded strongly: "I will devote myself wholeheartedly to the service of Japan."

About Shigeru Ishiba

On his fifth attempt, Shigeru Ishiba won the leadership race of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a runoff vote held on September 27. 

When campaigning started, "This is going to be my last challenge," he said upon announcing his candidacy in his home prefecture of Tottori. 

On the campaign trail, he forwarded ideas related to local revitalization. From a security standpoint, Ishiba argued for the importance of a NATO-like entity in Asia. 

Born in 1957, Ishiba began his career at Mitsui Bank and was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1986. Only 29 years old, at the time he was the youngest politician ever to be elected. 

Since then, he has held various high-profile roles, including Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, and Minister of State for Regional Revitalization. Ishiba has been elected to the House of Representatives 12 times. 

He is known as a defense and train "otaku" (enthusiast), and his office is full of trains and defense-related memorabilia. 

An Upset Vote

It's a mark of how unexpected the news was that on X (former Twitter) "Ishiba Shock" was trending in the afternoon of September 27.

The voting started earlier in the day at the LDP headquarters. With a record nine candidates, it was widely expected that no one person would be able to get an overall majority on the first ballot. Votes up for grabs were divided between 368 votes from LDP Diet members, and 368 votes from rank-and-file members. 

Takaichi, the former minister in charge of economic security, won the most votes in the first round. She secured 181 votes overall — 72 from National Diet members and 109 from rank-and-file members. 

Ishiba trailed behind at 154 votes, of which 46 were among MPs, while 108 were among rank-and-file members. 

Future Prospects

With celebrity-like popularity, Shinjiro Koizumi ranked third place at this stage. He garnered 136 votes, with 75 from National Diet members and 61 from the rank-and-file. At the beginning of campaigning Koizumi had consistently ranked number one or two in the polls. However, his policies failed to gain sufficient appeal among rank-and-file members on the campaign trail. 

The real upset took place in the second round of voting when 368 votes from Diet members and 47 votes representing each prefecture in Japan cast a total of 415 votes. 

Despite winning the most votes in the first round, Takaichi was overthrown in the second round. She obtained 194 votes, losing by a mere 21 preferences. Ishiba won with a total of 215 votes, split between 185 Diet Members, and 26 prefectural ballots.  

Nevertheless, Takaichi delivered an address that recognized the step forward for women in politics in Japan. "The fact that I, as a woman, was allowed to advance to the final vote was a historic moment for the LDP and for Japan." 

After the Vote

Ishiba is expected to be elected as Japan's next prime minister in a vote of the National Diet (all parties) on October 1. 

After that, he will likely announce his cabinet. Many observers will be looking at whether Ishiba dissolves the parliament quickly, thereby prompting a general election. The main opposition party in the Diet is the Constitutional Democratic Party. It, too, elected its new leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on September 23. 

During the LDP leadership campaign, Ishiba said he would consider carefully the timing for dissolving the National Diet. Many political observers in Japan expect a general election within the year. 

RELATED: 

• INTERVIEW | LDP's Shigeru Ishiba Talks to Mimei Sakamoto on Security, Reform, and Global Diplomacy
• LDP Leadership Election: The Nine Who Aspire to Become PM

Author: Arielle Busetto