Protesters in Seoul call for President Yoon's resignation (©Kyodo)
On December 14, the South Korean National Assembly passed a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol.
Mounting demands from opposition parties and the public for Yoon's ouster followed his abortive martial law declaration earlier this month. On December 3, Yoon instituted martial law. He justified the move as necessary to root out "anti-state" forces and "pro-North" elements.
It became the shortest-lived decree (about six hours) in the nation's history as 190 parliamentarians swiftly voted to overturn it.
On Saturday, December 14, the impeachment motion against Yoon passed by a vote of 204-85 in the 300-seat unicameral Assembly. Three members abstained, and eight votes were declared invalid.
While the vote was cast anonymously, analysts widely believe that 12 lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) supported the motion. The opposition needed at least eight votes from PPP members to secure its passage. It marked a stark contrast to the failed impeachment attempt on December 7, when PPP lawmakers boycotted the vote en mass.
What Comes Next?
As of 7:24 PM on Saturday, Yoon's presidential duties were officially suspended. However, he will remain in office pending the Constitutional Court's decision on whether to remove him from power permanently.
Until the court ruling, Prime Minister Han Duk-soo will serve as acting president. As South Korea's prime minister is an unelected cabinet member, significant policy shifts are unlikely to occur during his interim leadership.
Internal strife within the ruling PPP is expected to rise. Since Han Dong-hoon was elected to lead the party in July, factional divides have sharpened. The party leader has taken a critical stance toward the president's mounting scandals, occasionally taking a jab at Yoon and urging him to put his house in order. For pro-Yoon party members, Han's actions have not sat well.
The impeachment vote on Saturday underscored these internal clashes. Han Dong-hoon, having reversed his stance, supported the motion to impeach Yoon. Meanwhile, pro-Yoon lawmakers fought to block it at all costs. A growing movement now seeks to depose the party leader, who lacks both a parliamentary seat and a strong support base.
Key Issues for the Court
The ball is now in the Constitutional Court, which has up to 180 days to finalize its decision. Previous impeachment proceedings against presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Park Geun-hye suggest that deliberations could take anywhere from 63 to 91 days. Some legal experts say Yoon's case could take longer, as the president is set to contest the legal battle head-on.
Key issues for the court will be determining whether Yoon's martial law declaration constitutes an impeachable offense and if it meets the threshold for insurrection.
Under Article 65(1) of the South Korean Constitution, two criteria must be met for presidential impeachment. The president's actions must relate to his official duties. Furthermore, they must be unconstitutional. Personal or partisan matters, therefore, cannot be grounds for impeachment.
A third requirement, consistently upheld by precedent, is that the unconstitutional act must be egregious enough to justify removal from office. While most legal experts agree that Yoon's martial law decree did not meet the criteria for a formal proclamation, its status as an impeachable offense remains a point of contention.
Another pivotal debate will focus on whether Yoon's action amounts to insurrection, as opposition parties argue. Legal counsel representing the parliament must prove that Yoon "aimed to" neutralize the legislature.
If the court upholds the impeachment motion, Yoon will be permanently removed from office. Otherwise, he will be allowed to complete his remaining term as president.
What Happens to the Yoon Investigations?
Currently, the prosecution and the joint investigative headquarters are conducting a criminal investigation into the president, with both parties asserting jurisdiction over this high-profile case.
Several individuals involved in Yoon's martial law declaration have already been arrested. This includes the former defense minister, former Defense Counterintelligence Command chief, and police commissioner.
In the coming weeks, a rigorous investigation is expected to target the now-impeached president. While South Korean presidents are immune from criminal prosecution, this immunity does not extend to charges of insurrection or inciting foreign aggression.
Technically, Yoon could be indicted and arrested, though such an outcome would be unprecedented in South Korea's history. Even in the case of former President Park Geun-hye, she was indicted only after her formal removal from office.
If found guilty of leading an insurrection, the defendant could face the death penalty or life imprisonment.
Impact on Japan
Weeks of domestic turmoil in South Korea have placed its neighboring partner, Japan, in a worrying position.
Although Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated the importance of Japan-South Korea relations, his upcoming visit to Seoul next month is now in doubt. A delegation of Japanese lawmakers, led by ex-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, has canceled their planned December visit to South Korea.
That said, a major policy shift toward Japan is unlikely under Han Duk-soo's acting presidency. Until the Constitutional Court reaches its decision, Han is set to maintain the policies of the Yoon administration.
Another concerning prospect for Japan is the possibility of a liberal takeover of the presidency in the upcoming election. A special election must be held within 60 days of a presidential vacancy. Depending on the constitutional court's ruling, that election could occur as early as April or May 2025.
At the moment, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung is ahead in hypothetical polls. Should Lee succeed Yoon, a substantial shift in South Korea's security and foreign policy is almost guaranteed. This could strain Seoul's closest partners in Tokyo and Washington, particularly as non-democratic states ramp up efforts to challenge established international norms.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
