Speaking Out | Deciphering a Chinese Military Plane's Violation of Japan's Airspace

On August 26, a Chinese Y-9 intelligence-gathering aircraft violated Japan's territorial airspace off the Danjo Islands in Nagasaki Prefecture. The first Chinese military aircraft that intruded into Japan's territorial air belonged to the Eastern Theater Command. It is one of five major theater commands of Chinese forces and is in charge of military operations against Taiwan and Japan. Aircraft of this type have previously been found flying around other areas near Japan.

While it is unclear whether the Chinese military aircraft's violation of Japan's airspace was intentional or negligent, Japan should pay attention to the following:

1. The potential expansion of the scope of intelligence-gathering against Japan by Chinese forces, especially the Eastern Theater Command 
2. And, the potential enhancement of Chinese forces' sea and air defense capabilities against Japan.

Expansion of the Scope of Intelligence-Gathering

Regarding the first point, Y-9 intelligence-gathering aircraft have been flying around Japan's Nansei Island chain extending south from Kyushu. In the latest incident, however, the aircraft approached the western part of Kyushu for the first time ever. This indicates that Chinese forces might have begun to promote intelligence-gathering targeting the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's radar sites in Kyushu and the Sasebo base of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the United States Navy. They may also be assessing the scrambling posture of the JASDF Western Air Defense Force.

Assessment of the latest violation of the territorial airspace suggests it occurred because Chinese forces gave priority to their intelligence-gathering mission rather than consideration for Japan.

Demonstrating Enhanced Defense Capabilities to Xi

The next point to pay attention to is the Eastern Theater Command's potential enhancement of responses to Japan.

A possible reason behind the enhancement could be President Xi Jinping's instruction to strengthen the border, sea, and air defense at the 16th group study session of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Politburo on July 30. Xi emphasized that "advancing the building of modern border, sea, and air defense" was "of great significance to comprehensively promote the building of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation." 

He instructed the military to "grasp the new circumstances, characteristics, and requirements of the work to develop border, sea, and air defense" and "strive towards building strong, secure, and modern border, sea, and air defense." Therefore, it may have been imperative for the military to implement Xi's instructions, issued just before the August 1 anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army.

Furthermore, Xi inspected the China Coast Guard East China Sea Sub-bureau's area command office in November 2023. There, he instructed the office to improve law enforcement capabilities for the protection of China's maritime interests, apparently with Japan in mind. 

Impressing Xi Jinping

The Japanese airspace violated by the Y-9 is included in the Eastern Theater Command's coverage area. It is the same command that is also in charge of Japan's Senkaku Islands, to which China has made territorial claims. Xi's instructions might have prompted Chinese forces to respond to the "new circumstances, characteristics, and requirements" regarding sea and air defense against Japan.

Recent developments in the Eastern Theater Command's jurisdiction include the intrusion of a JMSDF ship into Chinese territorial waters in July. In August, the command saw Japan's law enforcement in action when the Japan Coast Guard rescued a Mexican national who had landed on Uotsuri Island in the Senkakus. The individual was later referred to prosecutors. These events may have prompted the Eastern Theater Command to demonstrate its enhanced sea and air defense efforts to Xi by conducting intelligence-gathering operations against Japan.

Chinese Forces May Intensify Activities Around Japan

From now on, Chinese forces, including the Eastern Theater Command, will likely come up with new responses to Japan in the process of developing their border, sea, and air defenses. The latest airspace violation is just the beginning of such responses. Chinese forces are likely to intensify their activities by new means and in new locations in the sea and airspace around Japan.

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(A version of this article was first published by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Find it in Speaking Out #1174 in Japanese on September 2 and in English on September 3, 2024.)

Author: Maki Nakagawa

Maki Nakagawa is a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and former Commander of Basic Intelligence Unit, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.