The Senkaku Islands in Ishigaki City, Okinawa Prefecture.
In recent weeks and months, several seemingly unrelated incidents have occurred in and around the Senkakus, islands historically claimed and administered by Japan for the last 130 years.
These events include the placing (and recent removal) of a buoy in the area and a helicopter flight over the islands. More ominous is the constant presence (224 days straight as of June 30) of armed Chinese Coast Guard vessels ー which are navy-sized ships painted white. Along with these is the recent passage nearby of a Chinese aircraft carrier, CNS Liaoning, and its naval task group. That has been followed by the deployment of another aircraft carrier, the CNS Shandong, in the area.
While they may appear unconnected, these incidents are, in fact, very much intertwined. Namely, the actions by China are all meant to chip away at Japan's administration of the Senkaku Islands. Beijing aims to create precedents that make it look as if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC), often by using the Chinese Communist Party and its military wing, the People's Liberation Army, is the rightful owner of the Senkakus.
Whether it is by lies, the use of force and violence, or other means and measures in between, the PRC has a big toolbox (this, also probably "Made in China") to draw from.
China's Tourism Tactic
It was not only these recent events that caused me to be concerned. I am a resident of Japan, a specialist on the history of the Senkaku Islands. As a former official in the United States government, I also personally know how woefully unprepared the US-Japan alliance is to defend the islands. And how inadequate the American understanding of the Senkaku issue is.
Recently, I was going through some declassified documents, articles, and clippings about the Senkakus for an ongoing book project. In the process, I came across a note I made to myself more than a decade ago about the islands.
At the time, I was working as the Political Advisor to the US Marine Corps in Okinawa. Belatedly, interest in the islands was beginning to grow there. I noticed an AP story published in the Stars and Stripes newspaper about how China was opening the Xisha Islands, known internationally as the Paracels, to cruises and other tourism. The islands are also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines.
Now in operation, the tours leave from the Sanya Port on the southeastern side of Hainan Island. Visitors sleep on the cruise ship and go onto the islands for sightseeing. There are reports of at least one hotel on the largest island, Yongxing. However, this writer has not been able to confirm the reports.
A Chinese Occupation Long in the Planning
The early April 2013 story was based on a report by Xinhua News Agency. It cited Hainan government officials, who stated that the tours were to begin before the May Day holiday on May 1 that year.
One of the cruise ship owners, Haihang Group Corporation Ltd, was also quoted. The ship could accommodate 1,965 passengers and was "ready for sailing." A second company was also building another ship.
It is obvious that the plan had long been in the works. Coordination between local government officials was involved, along with cruise and tour operators, and the ship companies. Moreover, it certainly needed the blessing (if not encouragement) of the central government.
The reader should be able to now guess what the note I wrote to myself was:
"What happens when China tries to do this in the Senkakus?"
This is beyond an influence operation that China has sought throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. This would be an attempt to assert its control and sovereignty over the Senkakus, undermining Japan's administration of the islands, perhaps dealing a final fatal blow without raising a fist.
Experts talk about "gray operations." This is a green one. No, not "army" but would be one that would generate money in the process. How many Chinese would pay to visit the Senkakus? A lot. And they would pay a lot of money.
Of course, Chinese authorities would not be doing it for commercial reasons but to finally separate the Senkakus from Japan.
A Wake-up Call
Is Japan prepared for this? If so, how?
The short answers are "no" and "not at all."
Japan should be, however. Indeed, not only was the April 2013 announcement over the Xisha Islands a wake-up call about what could happen in the Senkakus, but a Chinese professor based in Okinawa had called for precisely this a month before in March 2013.
Not surprisingly, he did so in the name of "friendship" and "peaceful development" of the Senkaku Islands. Naturally, he called the Senkakus by the name China has given them, the Diaoyutai Islands.
Japan Falling Behind on Its Own Islands
There have been similar calls in Japan for the islands to be opened up for tourism (which this author strongly supports). However, the difference is that Japan is the administrator of the islands and does so on behalf of the taxpayer. The government also continues to pay rental fees on one of the islands, which is dedicated for use by the US military.
Japanese people were able to visit the islands for fishing and research for decades. This continued even during the US occupation and administration of the islands from 1945 to 1972. (For details, see Robert D Eldridge, The Origins of US Policy in the East China Sea Islands Dispute: Okinawa's Reversion and the Senkaku Islands, Routledge 2014, especially Chapter 2.) However, this has become difficult, if not impossible, in recent years. The Japanese government is going backwards in its administration of the islands, not forward.
Meanwhile, China is steaming ahead in asserting and acting on its claims, no matter the lack of facts and legitimacy behind them. Japan needs to be ready for when China announces its beginning tours to the Senkakus. I fear the consequences if it is caught unaware and unable to respond.
Is there a bright spot? One way or another, at least the Japanese will be able to visit their islands in the future.
RELATED:
- Senkaku Islands at the Brink: Is China's Landing Next?
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- Chinese Naval Base Expansion Near Senkakus a New Concern
Author: Robert D. Eldridge
