Takaichi and the Taiwan Debate: US Support, South Korean Concerns

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In response to persistent questions from a Constitutional Democratic Party member during November's Diet session, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that a Taiwan contingency could qualify as a "survival-threatening situation," allowing Japan to exercise collective self-defense. Beijing responded with sharp criticism and stepped-up economic pressure.

In the United States, her comments drew a mixed reaction. Many praised her for confronting security realities and urged Washington to show similar clarity, while others expressed concern.

Many in South Korea interpreted the statement as a product of Takaichi's inexperience and voiced unease that the country could be drawn into escalating Japan–China tensions.

United States Reactions

Takaichi was prodded by the opposition to respond to a specific question on a specific scenario: China blockades Taiwan, US forces move to intervene, and those forces come under Chinese attack. Depending on the specifics of those conditions, she argued, could meet the threshold for a survival-threatening situation.

US media coverage, however, at times jumped to the assumption that Japan would intervene militarily the moment a blockade began. Reactions in the US were varied. There was praise for Takaichi's clarity on the security stakes. In some cases, despite understanding her underlying argument, others criticized her delivery as lacking caution.

Miles Yu, Senior Fellow and Director, China Center at the Hudson Institute, wrote in the Washington Times on November 24 that if Taiwan were to fall, China would gain de facto control of Japan's southern flank. He warned this would create a profound security threat for Japan and called Takaichi's Diet testimony appropriate.

Discussions in the US about Taiwan policy often center on historical context or the imperative to defend Taiwanese democracy. Yu argued that Takaichi cut through those abstractions by acknowledging a stark reality: "If Taiwan falls, Japan's security collapses with it." He added that "the United States needs the same kind of strategic clarity that Ms Takaichi has articulated."

Too Much Candor?

Walter Russell Mead, an international political scientist, reached a similar conclusion about the substance of Takaichi's remarks. Writing in the Wall Street Journal on November 17, he noted that if China were to seize Taiwan by force, the situation could indeed meet Japan's threshold for a survival-threatening event, potentially triggering a military response by Japan. He further suggested it was entirely plausible that the Self-Defense Forces would support the US and other allies.

Mead assessed Takaichi's approach, arguing that her mistake was to answer the question with too much honesty and candor. In doing so, he said, she handed China's "wolf warriors" a "new target" and triggered unnecessary diplomatic turbulence.

Beijing has since tightened economic pressure, reportedly instructing domestic airlines to cut flights to Japan. Mead also warned that powerful political figures could join forces with Japan-based companies reliant on China to push back against the Prime Minister's Office.

On November 13, The New York Times wrote that previous Japanese prime ministers had avoided specifying how they would respond if China moved against Taiwan. The paper noted that even the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi's political mentor and a well-known hawk on China, refrained during his tenure from detailing how Japan might respond to a Taiwan contingency.

Seoul Struggles to Balance Between Tokyo and Beijing

South Korean media have also followed the issue closely. Positioned between Japan and China, the country worries that the "sparks" of their confrontation could fall on Korea, a concern highlighted by The Dong-A Ilbo.

Seoul already navigates its own points of friction with both neighbors and worries that leaning too far toward one side could sour relations with the other.

Rising tensions between Tokyo and Beijing are already spilling into trilateral cooperation. China informed Japan and South Korea that it would postpone the trilateral culture ministers' meeting scheduled for Macau on November 24. A Japan–China–South Korea meeting planned on the sidelines of the ASEAN+3 Finance Vice Ministers and Central Bank Deputies gathering in Hong Kong on November 26–27 was likewise canceled.

The South Korean government is moving cautiously to contain any diplomatic fallout.

President Lee Jae-myung, attending the G20 summit in South Africa on November 22–23, arranged a last-minute meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. At the same time, he urgently requested an unscheduled meeting with Prime Minister Takaichi to avoid any impression that Seoul was tilting toward Beijing.

Lee later told reporters he had "made somewhat of an effort to maintain balance" between Japan and China.

Media Backlash in Seoul

Meanwhile, some South Korean media have been sharply critical of Takaichi's remarks.

Particular criticism has come from outlets that view her as ideologically aligned with former Prime Minister Abe, whom some have labeled "Japan's (Donald) Trump" or "the female Abe."

The progressive KyungHyang Shinmun argued in an editorial that the "far-right" Takaichi had long been viewed with suspicion by the international community, accusing her of triggering turmoil with a "line-crossing" statement immediately after taking office.

Elsewhere, the conservative Dong-A Ilbo also invoked the "female Abe" label, noting that even Abe had been more cautious on Taiwan-related issues while in power. The paper dismissed Takaichi's remarks as "a mistake born of inexperience."

Meanwhile, some analysts argue that the latest tensions stem not only from Takaichi's remarks but also from China's growing unease over strengthened Japan–US–South Korea cooperation.

JoongAng Ilbo, another conservative paper, pointed out that following the late-October US–South Korea summit, Washington formally approved South Korea's plan to build nuclear-powered submarines. Takaichi's comments came shortly afterward, further fueling China's hostility.

South Korea's concerns extend beyond its relationship with China.

Japan–South Korea ties also took a hit when a joint Self-Defense Forces–Republic of Korea Armed Forces military drill scheduled for November was canceled, raising doubts about defense cooperation.

JoongAng Ilbo emphasized the need to "manage tensions so they do not escalate further" and urged the South Korean government to "accurately grasp the positions of both Japan and China."

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Tatsuya Tokiyoshi, Mizuki Okada, The Sankei Shimbun

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