Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, speaking at a party leaders' debate, January 26, Tokyo. (©Sankei by Masahiro Sakai)
Polls suggest Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling coalition is headed for a strong victory in the upcoming Lower House election on February 8. From a national security perspective, this would be good for Japan and for the United States.
Takaichi is one of the very few Japanese Prime Ministers in the last 30 years to take office with a decent knowledge of national security and what Japan needs to do to defend itself. She also understands the malevolent nature of the Chinese communist regime and the threat posed to her country.
A decisive election victory would, of course, bolster her position in diplomacy and foreign affairs. But Takaichi has already taken a firm approach towards China following Beijing's tantrum after the Prime Minister noted that a Taiwan contingency could threaten Japan's survival back in November.
She has neither backed down nor made the conciliatory gestures toward China that Japanese administrations usually offer, as if Japan had done something wrong.
If her ruling party wins big, Takaichi will be even less likely to retreat in the face of Chinese intimidation. And opposition attacks on Takaichi's "tough on China" stance will lose steam, since, by definition, the public mostly supports her actions.
Deterrence, Not Belligerence
Ironically, Beijing deserves credit for increasing Takaichi's popularity and allowing her to demonstrate firm leadership so soon after taking office.
The Japanese public — far more "anti-China" and pro-defense than is Japan's political class itself — has always responded well to strong, well-articulated leadership. On the rare occasions they are exposed to it, Takaichi is showing such leadership.
This is not to say the Japanese prime minister will likely undertake a more confrontational stance toward Beijing moving forward. She doesn't need to.
Takaichi is already looking after Japan's interests by improving national defense and economic security as well as bolstering the United States-Japan alliance. On top of that, Takaichi is linking up with other free nations to strengthen overall defense.
Preparing for Reality
What Takaichi is doing is prudent and common sense. It's not confrontational. Chinese officials think that anyone trying to defend themselves from Chinese aggression and pressure is being "confrontational."
While the incumbent administration is already on the right course, if Takaichi's party secures a majority in the upcoming election, she will need to identify and allocate funds for national defense, which she has promised to accelerate.
She will also need to urgently address the Japan Self-Defense Force's (JSDF) longstanding problem of attracting fresh recruits.
Ensuring that the JSDF can operate effectively alongside US forces likewise remains a priority. Expanding defense production and strengthening economic security — particularly regarding critical minerals and reducing reliance on China-dependent supply chains — are also essential tasks.
Beijing Won't Back Down
Eventually, Tokyo may seek to re-engage with Beijing, but the latter's hatred of Takaichi is so intense that one shouldn't expect Beijing officials to back down in the near term.
Instead, it will keep attacking Takaichi with vile language, trying to stoke regional fears of imaginary Japanese "militarism," and pressure Japan via its military, the China Coast Guard, maritime militia, and fishing boats intruding constantly in Japan's maritime territory.
And the Chinese and Russians will also apply pressure together. The Chinese communists will also try to "split" the US-Japan alliance, though likely with little success.
Fortunately, like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi realizes that without the US military, Japan cannot adequately defend itself or its interests from Chinese aggression. Indeed, she understands Japan's strategic interests depend on a close relationship with America.
An Ally Worth Backing
It's still early to tell, but compared to the nineteen prime ministers since 1993, Takaichi could be one of the very best for Japan — and for the United States and every other free nation.
Hopefully, Washington recognizes what it has with Takaichi in charge of Japan. This is the only major Western or pro-Western country that is taking its defense seriously and not cozying up to the Chinese communists. And also a steadfast friend of the United States.
America could use a few more such countries and leaders.
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Author: Grant Newsham
