Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura (left), Prime Minister and LDP President Takaichi, and Ishin co-leader Fumitake Fujita respond to supporters' cheers during the lower house election campaign in Tokyo's Chiyoda Ward on the morning of January 27. (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election gamble paid off massively on February 8, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) securing a historic landslide victory and recording the most seats won in a single Lower House election in the post-war era.
Her party captured 316 seats on its own, surpassing the supermajority threshold necessary to override votes in the Upper House, where the LDP and its partner Ishin no Kai are four seats short of a majority.
The LDP's historic victory owed largely to Takaichi's popularity among the general public, keen to see her pursue her policy agenda encapsulated by the simple message of creating a "strong economy."
This victory also rested on the spectacular collapse of the new Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), a haphazard union between the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and former LDP coalition partner Komeito that failed to capture voter imagination as a viable alternative.
Takaichi comes out of the election with a strong mandate and legislative authority to continue her now flagship "responsible proactive fiscal policy" agenda with a focus on strategic investments in critical sectors like AI and shipbuilding.
However, the consequences of a historic win are not all positive. Voters gave Takaichi the vote of confidence for now, but that could change if she does not handle the newfound power well.
The Weight of a Landslide
First, overwhelming voter expectations will put pressure on the administration to deliver results fast.
This will likely come in the form of implementing inflation relief measures promised in the FY 2025 supplemental budget, the two-year suspension on the food consumption tax, and defense reinforcements that balance strategic necessity and fiscal constraints, to name a few.
Failure to deliver on promises cannot be blamed on opposition parties taking a variety of stalling tactics in Diet proceedings, like before. The burden of executing these policies rests squarely on Takaichi and the LDP.
Carrying this huge expectation means it is far easier to fall than to go upwards. While not a perfect comparison, when the LDP won big in 2005 under then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, the party suffered a historic defeat in the subsequent election that led to a change in government to the then-Democratic Party in 2009.
Tyranny of the Majority
Second, while the LDP obtained the right to override Upper House votes by securing a supermajority for the first time since 2017, excessive use of that power would embody what Alexis de Tocqueville called the "tyranny of the majority."
In the past, concerns over marginalizing dissenting voices limited the use of such powers to forty five instances in the post-war period. Over half were invoked between 1947 and 1957, and the last case was in 2013.
Cooperation across party lines has proven to be useful in realizing policies that voters want.
In 2025 alone, the minority LDP government successfully negotiated raising the income tax exemption threshold to support low- and medium-income households and expanding free high school education with Ishin and the Democratic Party for the People.
Even with a commanding majority in the Diet, the LDP would benefit from continuing to incorporate opposition policies with public benefit rather than politicizing the legislative process and strongarming legislation with the power of a supermajority.
To that end, it's encouraging to see Takaichi and other party executives commit to continuing policy dialogue with opposition parties.
Managing a Big-Tent Majority
Third, an enlarged LDP means challenges will arise over internal policy alignment. The LDP is a big-tent party, with lawmakers representing a wide spectrum of policy positions from moderate liberals to conservatives.
Potentially contentious issues like amending the Constitution or reducing the number of Lower House seats have at times exposed fissures within the party.
Sunday's landslide victory also had the unintended consequence of pushing many LDP lawmakers, even those critical of Takaichi, across the line.
Vocal critics like former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Seiichiro Murakami made the cut despite being placed low on the proportional representation list due to the LDP's strong showing at the polls.
This means that while the LDP as a whole made massive gains, not all of them will be on board with Takaichi's agenda. These lawmakers will be waiting for the moment to turn the tide back from the conservative wave under Takaichi to the moderate shift under former prime ministers Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba.
The Perils of Political Coattails
Fourth, a one-party dominant environment creates governance issues. Lawmakers are no longer as accountable for their actions as they would be if there were a competitive environment in which one misstep could spell the end of their political careers.
A good example is the Shinzo Abe era of one-party dominance that began in 2012. The so-called "Abe children," first elected on the back of strong popular support for Abe, were a troublesome group that was implicated in a variety of political scandals.
Many owed their election more to Abe's coattails than to demonstrated expertise or the personal qualities expected of national representatives.
Takaichi will need to keep one eye on party governance, particularly after the LDP faced intense public scrutiny over the 2024 slush fund scandal.
That caution will be essential if she hopes to avoid a repeat of the problem with so-called "Takaichi children," lawmakers elected less on individual merit than on the coattails of her personal popularity.
A Defining Test
With great power comes great responsibility.
Takaichi has secured the vote of confidence she desired to pursue her policy agenda. It will come down to how she wields this power that will determine how she is judged in the history books.
The Prime Minister is in pole position to become the first Japanese leader since Shinzo Abe to capitalize on electoral success to usher in a long-running administration.
Failing to manage these risks, however, could shorten her time in office. Voters will be watching closely to see whether the full performance matches the preview that has impressed them so far.
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Author: Rintaro Nishimura, Senior Associate in The Asia Group's Japan practice
