President Xi Jinping delivers a speech at the Political Work Conference of the Central Military Commission of China in Yan'an, Shaanxi Province (©Xinhua via Kyodo)
It is already a global consensus that Xi Jinping's dictatorship is currently facing an unprecedented comprehensive crisis. The questions are: Faced with China's crisis, what will Xi do? And what impact will his decision have on the global situation?
Combining several sources, the answer may be that he could choose war as his only viable solution.
CCP Likely to Go to War with the Philippines
The first source was former Chinese journalist Zhao Lanjian. He revealed that the Chinese Navy is highly likely to engage in direct conflict with the Philippines.
Zhao said in an X post that currently, there is no sense of complete confidence in victory within the Chinese Navy. That is because the analysis and operational command departments hold differing opinions.
Despite this, there is significant pressure from central strategic deployments. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s Central Military Commission aims to provoke a war in the South China Sea. Military technical staff are actively seeking and creating flashpoints for conflict.
Xi Jinping Plans to Arrest 70 Generals
On the army side, reports say Xi Jinping personally is commanding and deploying forces to arrest 70 generals nationwide. Mass criticism will be used to warn against "unstable elements" within the military.
Beyond military personnel, many experts have been arrested. Hundreds have been banned from project bidding for life, with investigations stretching back years.
At Least Four Military Industry Executives Arrested
Zhao disclosed the arrest of three directors of the China Academy of Space Technology along with members of their factions. Previously, this institution was known as the Fifth Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology. The massive arrest of key figures has even troubled the investigation team due to significant technical and productivity losses.
Public information shows that the current and two previous directors are Li Daming (李大明), Lin Yiming（林益明), and Zhang Hongtai（张洪太).
Zhang Hongtai is currently the vice secretary of the Party Committee, director, and general manager of China Satellite Network Group Co, Ltd.
Additionally, Wang Wanjun (王万军), director of the Academy of Aerospace Liquid Propulsion Technology, has also been arrested.
Purge Aims to Eliminate Potential Threat for War Preparation and Future Operations
One aspect of this large-scale operation targets former subordinates of Li Yuchao. He is the former commander of the Rocket Force. Already expelled from the CCP, he is currently under investigation.
However, the operation also aims to uncover special relationships between various groups. These include military industry enterprises and military sectors. They involve bribery, power-money transactions, and power-sex transactions. Overall, the purpose is to eliminate potential elements that could interfere with the CCP's war preparation and future operations.
Zhao Lanjian emphasized that the above information comes from several high-level friends within the Chinese military, making it highly reliable.
A year ago in 2023, Zhao Lanjian accurately revealed the arrest of key military figures like former defense minister Li Shangfu.
CCP Revises National Defense Education Law
The second source was the official news about the draft revisions to the CCP's "National Defense Education Law." These proposed revisions were submitted to the National People's Congress Standing Committee on September 11.
The draft states that universities and high schools should follow the military training outline to "strengthen military skills training, sharpen students' willpower, enhance organizational discipline, and improve military training levels." Local military units "should help schools organize military training for students," it says.
According to official media, there is also an effort to show the importance of school defense education for conscription. The second draft adds that school "defense education" should be combined with "military service promotion education." These should then boost students' "awareness of serving in the military" and create an atmosphere where "serving in the military is glorious."
The second draft also improves rules for training reservists.
'Famous' Nuclear Threat by PLA General
The third source was former Peking University Professor Yuan Hongbing. He revealed that Xi Jinping's "war adventure" mentality was reaffirmed by PLA Major General Zhu Chenghu.
Zhu once made himself very famous by making a nuclear threat in Hong Kong in 2005. He told a Wall Street Journal reporter, in the context of a Sino-United States military conflict over Taiwan, "If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition onto the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons." He also added, "[We] will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xi'an. Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."
Zhu additionally suggested that the CCP would use nuclear weapons even if the US made a conventional attack on a Chinese aircraft or warship. Something like this becomes very likely if Washington honors its commitment to help defend Taiwan against an invasion by the CCP.
At the time, Zhu Chenghu's statements shocked not only the world, but also the Chinese people, because as many as 800 million, or about 60% of the entire Chinese people were living east of Xi'an.
No Accountability on Either Side
On the US side, Congress called for Zhu to be fired from the National Defense University. Meanwhile, a CCP spokesperson stated that the remarks were Zhu's personal opinion.
It's worth noting that after making those shocking, and anti-humanity remarks, Zhu Chenghu did not receive any punishment.
On the contrary, his reputation within the CCP's military grew even bigger. He continued serving as the deputy director of the Strategy Research Institute at the National Defense University. In addition, he also held the position of the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Guangzhou Military Region Air Force. He was frequently invited to give speeches or appear on various TV shows.
PLA General Reaffirms Xi's Resolve on Taiwan
Zhu Chenghu wrote a 10 thousand-word paper designated as reference material for teaching at the Institute of Defense Studies of the National Defense University. In addition, he outlined Xi Jinping's "grand international strategy."
He first criticizes the view represented by Liu Yazhou, the former political commissar of the National Defense University. Liu posited that "war against Taiwan is bound to fail."
Zhu Chenghu claimed that the greatly talented Xi Jinping had already laid out an international grand strategy for inevitable victory in the Taiwan Strait war.
Zhu Chenghu believes the strategic alliance between China and Russia, built on common national interests, is unbreakable. For this, Zhu coined a maxim: "All things in the world can be broken. Only interests remain unbroken."
PLA General Brags on 'Combined Nuclear Power' of CCP and Russia, and Xi Jinping's 'Grand International Strategy'
Zhu Chenghu also believes that the CCP's current nuclear warfare potential has surpassed the combined total of Britain and France. Furthermore, when combined with Russia's nuclear capabilities, they are invincible worldwide.
At the same time, the alliance between the CCP and Russia gives the CCP strategic backing in both energy and geopolitical terms.
Zhu Chenghu argues that since the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, North Korea has had no choice but to become a strategic ally of China. He notes North Korea's missile and nuclear capabilities. Furthermore, North Korea has a million-strong army with special forces at its core. These, he says, will exert strong deterrence and restraint on the US-Japan and US-South Korean alliances.
Zhu Chenghu also believes the CCP possesses the world's most efficient reserve mobilization capability. It can rapidly mobilize an army of 5 million if needed.
In total, China has a continuous supply of reserve personnel. It is also backed by the invincible nuclear capabilities of the China-Russia alliance. On top of that are the formidable conventional combat capabilities of the Chinese land, sea, and air forces. Together, Zhu Chenghu argues that this would be sufficient to engage in a strategic showdown with the West across the Taiwan Strait.
Zhu Chenghu emphasizes that Xi Jinping personally directs and deploys the international grand diplomatic strategy. He has established strategic alliances with Islamic countries like Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and strategic alliances with "Islamic resistance forces opposing US hegemony."
Zhu believes that forming strategic alliances with these forces has given the CCP the capability to conduct significant "guerrilla warfare" worldwide. That, he says, even includes within the US and Europe.
The "guerrilla warfare" here actually refers to terrorist attacks.
Cambodia and Laos Can Offer Strong Strategic Support Points
Zhu Chenghu also points out that with close economic ties as a foundation, Cambodia and Laos have formed an inseparable political blood connection with the CCP. Once a war across the Taiwan Strait breaks out, Cambodia and Laos will become strong strategic support points for the Chinese military to deploy, and deter in the South China Sea, and connect the strategic maritime areas of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
According to Yuan Hongbing, the above is only an abstract of Zhu's long article. The article was written in 2023 but only recently passed to Yuan by a CCP insider.
Most Lethal Crisis for International Community
Yuan Hongbing believes that this article is designed to flatter Xi Jinping, but also clearly reflects Xi Jinping's strategic dynamics. Xi Jinping will not sit idly by as an irresolvable comprehensive crisis tightens its noose around his neck. On the contrary, he will inevitably resort to the adventure of war in an attempt to carve out a bloody path.
For Xi Jinping, the real crisis lies not in the crisis itself. Rather it lies in the fact that, according to his political logic, the comprehensive economic, political, and diplomatic crisis he faces is unsolvable.
For the international community, the most lethal crisis is not Xi Jinping's will and strategy for global expansion through war adventures. It is that the international community still lacks clear and accurate insight into Xi Jinping's war adventurism. Without such insight, it is difficult to prevent and defeat Xi Jinping's war adventures.
Key Points for Conscriptions: Re-enlist Retired Personnel
Yuan Hongbing also disclosed another piece of information from within the CCP regime. He reported that a notice from the conscription office of the CCP's Central Military Commission had been issued to various levels of so-called People's Armed Departments responsible for conscription work around late August. The title of this notice was "Key Points for Conscription Work in the Autumn and Winter Seasons of 2024 and 2025."
This notice explicitly stated that conscription work for the re-enlistment of retired personnel will be conducted in both 2024 and 2025. The focus of re-enlisting retired personnel includes various types of armored vehicle drivers, army aviation helicopter pilots, naval submarine technical personnel, surface ship radar operators, weapon operators, ship navigators, and various technical personnel from the Rocket Force and Air Force, among others.
Time Frame for Potential 'War Adventure'
This information was disclosed by an insider from the CCP system who said he could already smell the stench of war. Xi Jinping's war adventure to launch a conflict across the Taiwan Strait could very well become a grim reality between 2025 and 2027. He assesses that the highest likelihood could be after the autumn and winter conscription of 2025.
Yuan Hongbing notes that the CCP continuously makes some diplomatic feints. To deceive the international community, the CCP pretends to show goodwill toward the West in an attempt to mask its evil alliance with Russia, North Korea, Iran, and international terrorist extremist forces. Nevertheless, various signs indicate that Xi Jinping has already raised the bloody flag of war adventure in his mind.
Danger of Failing to Wake Up
Regrettably, some politicians with significant political and military power today still fantasize about both competing and cooperating with the CCP.
Yuan Hongbing said this kind of thinking, where one wants to have it both ways, can only lead to foolish failure. He speculates about what it will take for the United States to truly wake up to the tyranny of the CCP. Hopefully, it will not need to experience a failure and humiliation akin to the Pearl Harbor attack during World War II. As well, hopefully, the free world will not lose the historical opportunity to defeat this tyranny.
Conscription Work Conference in Beijing with Focus on University Students
Earlier in 2024, the CCP held a conscription work conference in Beijing. The conference proposed conducting two conscription drives focusing on university students in 2024. For full-time postgraduate students, including graduates and current students, the age limit has been extended to 26 years old.
Another important fact to know is that the number of university graduates in China reached $11.87 million USD in 2024. That is more than the entire population of countries like Belgium, Sweden, Portugal, Israel, Austria, and Switzerland. Finding a job has become a significant issue for university graduates.
True Example: Only 3% of Graduates Found Jobs
For instance, at the very prestigious Beihang University, or Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, out of 224 undergraduate computer science graduates in 2024, 195 chose to continue with postgraduate studies. That is 87% of the students.
Of these 195 postgraduate students, 94 (42%) were directly admitted. Another 69 (31%) passed the entrance exams, and 32 (14%) went abroad for their studies.
Of the remaining 29 who did not pursue further studies, 22 have not found jobs yet, while only 7 have found employment.
That means only 24% found jobs, and 76% did not.
However, the situation looks even worse if those choosing postgraduate studies are counted as also not finding jobs. Indeed, many opt for further studies because they can't find employment. (I remember when I graduated from Peking University with a Master of Science degree, several classmates continued to doctoral studies because they couldn't find jobs but wanted to stay in Beijing.)
So, if we count those who opted for postgraduate studies as unemployed, out of the 224 graduates, only 7 found jobs. That is a pitiful 3%.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
Find articles by Jennifer Zeng on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.
