Vessels anchored off the coast of Dubai as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, March 2 (©Getty/Kyodo).
このページを で読む
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has served as a stark reminder that the world remains reliant on fossil fuels.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital energy transport route through which roughly 20% of the world's crude oil supply passes.
If tankers carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) cannot navigate freely, the consequences for the global economy could be profound. Markets remain volatile, as crude oil prices surge.
Japan is among the countries most exposed. More than 90% of its crude oil imports originate in the Middle East, with much of it transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns over this heavy dependence have long been voiced, and that risk has now materialized.
Middle East Dependence
Following the two oil crises of the 1970s, Japan sought to diversify its crude oil procurement. Yet there are reasons why its dependence on the Middle East has risen to such a high level, even though it stood at around 80% just before the two crises.
First, Indonesia, once a major supplier, became a net importer of crude oil as production fell and domestic consumption rose alongside economic growth.
Second, while crude oil characteristics differ by country, Japan's refineries are best suited to processing Middle Eastern crude. As a result, reliance on the Middle East, where both production capacity and reserves offer greater flexibility, became virtually inevitable.
Sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine, including the ban on Russian crude oil imports, have also contributed to increased dependence on the Middle East.
For the time being, there is no immediate cause for concern over oil shortages. Preparations have been made for contingencies in the form of oil reserves. Japan currently holds stockpiles equivalent to roughly 250 days of domestic consumption.
However, there is no guarantee that the blockade will be resolved anytime soon. Japan, therefore, needs to explore Plan B, such as securing alternative suppliers, while making the most of the time afforded by its stockpiles.
LNG and Sanctions Risk
LNG, which does not suffer from the same concentration of supply sources as crude oil, is not entirely secure either. LNG transported through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for around 6% of Japan's total imports. And nearly 10% is sourced from Russia, which remains subject to economic sanctions.
All Russian LNG is supplied from the Sakhalin-2 oil and natural gas development project in the Far East. With stable operations and the ability to transport it to Japan within two or three days, procurement companies unanimously describe it as a "valuable source of supply."
Yuya Hasegawa, Director of Energy Resources Development Division at the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, says, "The United States understands that Sakhalin II is important for Japan."
He added that for that reason, the US has excluded Sakhalin II-related transactions from its economic sanctions against Russia. In December, this special measure was extended for six months until June 18.
Companies Prepare Contingencies
The British government has also announced that it will ban the provision of insurance for maritime shipments of Russian LNG starting this spring. If implemented, imports from Sakhalin II could become difficult.
Takafumi Yanagisawa, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), who specializes in the global LNG market, cautions that "there is a risk that imports could become impossible due to US and UK sanctions against Russia."
Japanese companies will likewise need to begin preparing Plan B for LNG.
Kyushu Electric Power, which procures 500,000 tons annually from Sakhalin II, has begun simulations for scenarios in which procurement becomes impossible.
Options under consideration include increasing output from coal-fired power plants and expanding LNG procurement from sources other than Sakhalin II.
"We do not believe this will lead to any uncertainty in electricity supply," says Masaru Nishiyama, head of Kyushu Electric Power.
The Nuclear Option
For resource-poor Japan, energy security rests on diversifying fossil fuel supply and maintaining a balanced energy mix across multiple power sources.
While diversifying crude oil supply is not easy, major energy companies such as JERA and Tokyo Gas have, since 2025, been concluding large-scale LNG procurement contracts with the United States and other countries.
As countries scramble to secure stable energy supplies, Ken Koyama, Managing Director and Chief Researcher at the IEEJ, emphasises the importance of nuclear power.
"Not only does it emit no carbon dioxide, but it also contributes to raising energy self-sufficiency and enables a stable electricity supply," he says. "For Japan's energy security, the extent to which reactor restarts progress is crucial."
Estimates suggest that restarting just one nuclear reactor could eliminate the need for approximately one million tons of LNG annually.
RELATED:
Author: Shunichi Takahashi, The Sankei Shimbun
(Read this article in Japanese)
このページを で読む
