With defense, strategic cooperation, and shared concerns, ties between India and the US are evolving under Trump. How will challenges and opportunities unfold?
Trump Modi

President Trump and PM Modi (©Reuters).

United States President Donald Trump's inauguration gives a new lease of life to the ties between India and America. In the initial days of the Joe Biden administration, India and the US became closer. However, towards the second half of the Biden era, the ties began to fray for a host of reasons. 

President Trump was close to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the past, and both were close to former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. India has faced multiple challenges from many quarters in the foreign policy domain in recent years. With the second Trump administration, there is now a chance to put bilateral relations back on track.

Indian Prime Minister Modi (right) during the 2019 G20 Osaka Summit, smiling with then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (center) and President Donald Trump (left).

Facing Challenges

There are some challenges in the relationship, though. One of them is Russia. India has close ties with Russia, especially in security and energy. Washington had threatened to impose sanctions on India because it ordered S-400 missile systems from Russia. Nevertheless, New Delhi has chosen to go ahead with the same.

Then there are differences on issues, such as Iran, on which the two countries have differing positions. New Delhi has engaged with Iran on various matters to address connectivity challenges. India also funded the construction of the Chabahar Port in Iran, which will help India reach out to the Central Asian nations.

Former President Biden's administration sided with the Mohammed Yunus-led caretaker government in Bangladesh. Even after radical Islamists attacked the minority communities, especially Hindus in Bangladesh, Biden chose to look the other way. Hopefully, things will take a turn for the better now.

Furthermore, India is also engaging with China in forums like the BRICS. Indeed, the issue of starting a BRICS currency to rival the US Dollar has run into some serious trouble, especially with the Trump administration.

There are also Indians among the illegal alien population in the US, according to the PEW Research Center, raising yet another concern. This could create serious issues in the ties between the two countries. Additionally, there is the sensitive matter of the Khalistani supporters who are living in the US and Canada.

Areas of Convergence

US-India relations hold multiple key strengths. One of them is the strong people-to-people ties, including many high-profile Indians in the Trump Administration.

Another important area of cooperation is the defense ties between the two countries. Both nations' armed forces regularly engage in numerous joint defense exercises. 

Defense ties between the two countries have progressed from near zero to around $25 billion USD a year recently. India's purchases of US weaponry span a remarkably diverse range. They include C-17 Globemaster III aircraft, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, MH-60 Romeo helicopters, and P8I Poseidon Maritime reconnaissance aircraft. Many more deals are in the works.

It is worth noting that during Modi's landmark 2023 state visit to Washington, American company GE Aerospace and India's state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited signed an agreement. The deal aims to jointly produce fighter jet engines for the Indian Air Force's Light Combat Aircraft MK-II, Tejas. 

According to a joint statement, this deal will "enable greater transfer of US jet engine technology than ever before." A landmark for both countries, it could open doors for many more deals to come. Indeed, India has been looking to indigenize its defense industry and diversify its sources beyond its traditional source, Russia. 

Russian President Putin (left) and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shake hands during a summit in Moscow, January 17 (©Reuters).

Another pivotal agreement is the acquisition of MQ-9B Predator drones from the US. This marks a big leap forward in US-India defense ties. The $3.3 billion contract signed with the US government in October of 2024 includes the delivery of 31 weaponized drones in a move set to reshape the dynamics in India's neighborhood.

The Japan Factor

Japan's involvement will be key. India, Japan, the US, and Australia make up the Quad and have strengthened their cooperation across various sectors. They also participate in key military exercises, such as the Malabar exercises, and work closely to enhance stability in the Indo-Pacific region. 

US Pacific Command has been restructured as the US Indo-Pacific Command to reflect this growing focus. This partnership took root following the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami and has only deepened. With shared interests in the Indo-Pacific, the collaboration among the US, India, and Japan is poised to expand in the years ahead.

An Evolving Bond

There is no denying that the ties between India and the US represent a complex amalgamation of factors. It will be interesting to watch how they play out in the times to come under the Trump administration.

Some reports already suggest that PM Modi could visit the US in March, but these are yet to be confirmed. Shared concerns about China are just one of the factors bringing the world's oldest and the world's biggest democracies closer.

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Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah

Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal.

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