Trump's Venezuela Strike and Its Implications for China and Japan

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At the end of 2025, China carried out three days of military exercises encircling Taiwan. With the start of the New Year, the United States responded on a different front, launching a sudden operation against Venezuela that resulted in the detention and transfer of President Nicolás Maduro to the United States. The international environment has since entered a period of acute turbulence.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's actions in support of Moscow, and President Donald Trump's strike on Venezuela are all developments that warrant condemnation as violations of international law. Yet acknowledging this does not change a hard geopolitical reality: the international order can no longer be governed by the application of international law as it once was. Japan must therefore ground its response in national interest and pursue realistic strategies to counter the challenge posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Xi Jinping's Calculus

Few leaders were likely more embittered by Trump's Venezuela operation than Chinese President Xi Jinping. After Washington approved an $11.1 billion USD arms sale to Taiwan, Beijing responded with conspicuous military exercises encircling the island. It was meant as a warning. Trump brushed off the display, remarking that he had "a great relationship" with Xi and that the drills did not worry him. 

In doing so, he undercut Xi's attempt to intimidate Taiwan through maneuvers that brought Chinese forces ever closer to the island in simulations resembling actual combat.

The Venezuela operation also had the effect of eclipsing what had amounted to a dress rehearsal for a People's Liberation Army invasion of Taiwan, shifting global attention decisively toward US actions.

National Security Strategy in Effect

The strike inevitably calls to mind the National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration in early December 2025, as it effectively put into practice policies explicitly laid out in that document. The strategy identifies two core pillars with direct implications for China: the strategic importance of Taiwan, and America's determination to defend the Western Hemisphere, centered on North and South America.

On the first point, the strategy notes that Taiwan's importance stems in part from its dominance in semiconductor production, but more fundamentally from its role in providing access to the second island chain and its position at the crossroads of Northeast and Southeast Asia. Were China to seize Taiwan, located along the first island chain, it would be able to push its reach to the second island chain. That is an outcome the US has made clear it will not permit.

The second point reflects Washington's determination to exclude the influence of other powers from the Americas. There is little doubt that China is the primary target of this policy. The strategy is infused with a clear resolve to shut Beijing out.

Actions, Not Words

US officials have repeatedly conveyed to Japan, albeit unofficially, that Trump should be judged not by his words, but by his actions. Although the National Security Strategy emphasizes the Western Hemisphere, this should not be taken to mean that the US has lost interest in other regions. For Japan, that message is a welcome one.

China's discomfort with the Trump administration's Western Hemisphere policy, and with its accompanying effort to exclude Chinese influence from South America, is unmistakable. Even if Beijing believes it will soon rival the US in terms of nuclear deterrence, it remains far behind in conventional military capabilities. For China, establishing a foothold in South American countries is therefore a critical component of its strategy to achieve parity with America.

China's Push for Military Parity

Beijing has long advanced the notion of a "G2," a world shaped by two great powers. President Xi Jinping is driven by a determination to stand on equal footing with America, and ultimately to surpass it.

Evidence of that ambition is mounting. Makoto Nakagawa, a researcher at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals, has reported that China has begun construction of its fourth aircraft carrier, this time, a nuclear-powered vessel. 

Kiyofumi Iwata, former Chief of Staff of the Ground Self-Defense Force, has noted that China aims to deploy a fleet of nine aircraft carriers by 2035. Taken together, these developments point to a clear and unwavering resolve to project power through military force.

Competing Worldviews and Strategic Geography

By contrast, President Trump views the US as the world's preeminent power and believes China must accept a subordinate position. These competing visions are fundamentally irreconcilable, ensuring that strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing will persist.

At present, US naval forces routinely operate before China's eyes in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea. Beijing, therefore, contends that it, too, has the right to operate near American waters. From China's standpoint, true parity with Washington will only be achieved when it can deploy carrier strike groups as far as the US East Coast.

This perspective helps explain China's efforts to secure ports and other facilities across South America for its own use. Under Xi Jinping's leadership, Beijing has steadily intensified and deepened its engagement with countries in the region. Trump's push to reinforce US dominance in the Western Hemisphere is aimed squarely at countering this expanding Chinese footprint.

What Japan Must Do

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi must fully grasp the significance of these developments. With regard to Venezuela, Japan should refrain from openly criticizing the US and instead adopt a stance of quiet acquiescence. 

The wiser course is to steadily pursue policies that enable Japan to prevail alongside the US in the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing. While maintaining channels of dialogue with the Chinese Communist Party remains important, there is no need to force an improvement in relations.

Japan should actively deepen cooperation with America while keeping constitutional revision firmly in view as a means of strengthening the nation's resilience. Concrete plans for Japan's ¥80 trillion ($550 billion) investment in the US should be directed toward building supply chains that steadily reduce dependence on China. 

From there, Japan must press ahead with a clear sense of purpose, implementing policies fully aligned with Takaichi's vision. Chief among these, in my view, is stabilizing the Imperial Household, the foundation of Japan's national identity, through legislation that ensures a stable framework for imperial succession.

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Yoshiko Sakurai

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