Understanding the LDP Leadership Election

Japan is gearing up for a crucial election: the election for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). September's LDP leadership election will determine the party's new president and, by extension, the country's next prime minister. 

This election comes at a pivotal time as the LDP attempts to improve its image while addressing both domestic and international challenges. Fumio Kishida, the current LDP leader and Japanese prime minister, will step down. His departure opens the door for a new leader to guide the party and the nation forward. Given the LDP's majority in parliament, the elected leader is almost certain to become the next prime minister of Japan.

Navigating the LDP leadership election process can be daunting. It involves multiple steps, various voting groups, and specific eligibility criteria. In this article, JAPAN Forward outlines the steps and clarifies the complex process of choosing Japan's next ruling party leader.

Who is eligible to run in the LDP leadership election? 

To run in the LDP leadership race, candidates must be LDP members currently serving in the National Diet (Japan's parliament). 

Additionally, candidates need at least 20 nominations from fellow LDP Diet members to officially qualify as a candidate in the election. Therefore, candidates quickly begin rallying to secure endorsements from fellow lawmakers. As of publication, ten would-be candidates have reported securing endorsements from 20 people. 

However, anyone who has served two consecutive terms (six years) as the LDP leader cannot run again in the next election.

How does the voting process work?

On August 20, the LDP election management committee confirmed that it will announce the candidates on September 12. Voting is scheduled for September 27. 

In addition, the committee declared that it will extend the election campaign period from 12 to 15 days.

The LDP leadership election involves two main groups of voters: LDP Diet members and rank-and-file party members from across Japan. Ordinary citizens do not have a vote in this election. 

The election process is divided into two rounds:

1. First Round:

• Diet Members: All LDP members of the National Diet have the right to vote in the leadership election. Each LDP Diet member has one vote. They cast their votes at the party headquarters on the day of the election.
• Party Members: An equal number of votes (367) are allocated to rank-and-file party members. These members must be at least 20 years old, hold Japanese nationality, and have paid their membership fees for the past two years.

Support from Both Groups: Under this system, candidates must secure support from both groups, which can be challenging, even for seasoned politicians. For instance, Shigeru Ishiba is more popular among rank-and-file members but less so in Nagatacho.

The election committee counts the total votes from both Diet members and party members. If any candidate secures a majority (over 50%) of the votes, the committee declares them the winner.

Role of Party Factions: The upcoming election is clouded by significant uncertainty due to the dissolution of many of the party's traditional factions. Historically, these factions have shaped the race's outcome. A recent political funding scandal led to the dissolution of five out of six major factions, plunging the party into disarray. 

Without the usual factional support, candidates are now scrambling to secure backing, often through smaller, informal gatherings and study groups. Some analysts expect this lack of clear factional alliances to complicate vote consolidation. They believe it could potentially give the only remaining faction (Taro Aso faction) outsized influence in determining the election's winner.

2. Runoff (if necessary):

If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, a runoff is held between the top two candidates. 

• In this round, the 367 Diet members vote again, and each of the LDP's 47 prefectural chapters casts one vote. Prefectural votes are determined based on the first-round results of party members in each prefecture. 
• Whichever candidate wins the most votes in the runoff is elected president.

How are the votes counted and allocated? 

The votes are counted using a proportional representation system known as the d'Hondt method. This system ensures that the votes cast by rank-and-file party members are translated proportionally into votes that are combined with the votes of Diet members. Each candidate's total vote count is the sum of their Diet votes and the votes allocated from the rank-and-file members.

What role does the election management committee play?

Election management committees at both the national and prefectural levels oversee the LDP leadership election. Composed of 11 members appointed by the party president, the national committee is responsible for overall election management. Similarly, each prefecture has its own committee of five members which the prefectural LDP branch leader appoints. 

These committees manage the voter rolls, oversee the voting process, and ensure that the election is conducted fairly.

How is the election campaign conducted? 

The election campaign is designed to be fair and transparent, with minimal financial expenditure. Following the official announcement of candidates, the election management committee promptly publishes each candidate's policy views in the party's official publications. 

Additionally, the LDP organizes speeches and other election-related events. This ensures that all candidates have an equal chance to present their platforms to both party members and the public.

What happens after the election?

Once the LDP leader is elected, the National Diet is convened to elect Japan's next prime minister. Given the LDP's current majority in both houses of parliament, the newly elected LDP leader is almost certain to be chosen as the prime minister. 

Following the election, the new prime minister is expected to form a cabinet. He or she may also reshuffle the LDP's executive leadership positions in the following weeks.

Leadership at a Crossroads

The LDP leader election is a critical chance for the party to rejuvenate its image and leadership. As journalist Rui Abiru highlights, this election could be the party's opportunity to present a fresh face and direction to the public, potentially reigniting voter confidence. Stakes are high, and the outcome could determine the party's ability to navigate Japan's current challenges. That makes this election a defining moment for the LDP.

The House of Representatives' term ends in October 2025, requiring the new prime minister to dissolve the National Diet before then. However, the winning candidate might opt to dissolve the parliament earlier and call a snap election while their popularity is still high. 

For example, Shinzo Abe called a snap election 103 weeks after his election to secure a renewed mandate for his policies in December 2014. Abe aimed to strengthen his government's position amid waning public support and economic uncertainty. The early election resulted in a decisive victory for Abe's LDP, allowing the party to consolidate its supermajority in the House of Representatives.

As a result, the next few months will be crucial for the nation, shaping the LDP's strategy and building consensus ahead of a possible early general election.

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Author: Daniel Manning