President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take back the White House. November 6, 2024 in Florida. (©Reuters)
A clash between the United States and China appears increasingly inevitable. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is allegedly preparing for a swift and decisive military move to claim Taiwan. This daring strategy, if realized, would hinge on betting the fate of the CCP against the US. According to intelligence from within the CCP and analysis by former insiders, this trajectory seems highly plausible, especially in light of a Donald Trump presidency.
A Think Tank in Crisis Mode
On October 30, amidst the US election frenzy, I discussed a confidential CCP analysis prepared in response to Trump's possible election victory. More details about the CCP's strategy have now surfaced, shedding light on a complex geopolitical landscape.
The report in question was authored by nine of the CCP's top international political and military strategists. It drew from both the military and foreign affairs sectors. Overseen by Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the CCP's Central Military Commission, this emergency think tank was tasked with navigating one of the most turbulent periods in modern geopolitics.
According to the think tank, the most profound geopolitical shift post-Trump would involve a US-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. This formed the cornerstone of Trump's foreign policy, heavily emphasized during his campaign.
Strategic Calculations: Betting on Taiwan
The CCP's analysis calls for abandoning any illusions of diplomatic reconciliation with a Trump-led America. It recommends that China prepare for conflict, including a decisive battle in the Taiwan Strait. Positioned at China's doorstep, Taiwan is viewed as a strategically advantageous battlefield.
The think tank predicts that Trump's peace plan for Ukraine, though still under wraps, will almost certainly demand a cessation of US military aid to Ukraine, pressuring Kyiv to cede territory for peace. Such a move, the report warns, could trigger significant repercussions for America's global standing.
Fallout from a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
Trump's potential approach to forcing Ukraine into a land-for-peace agreement could alienate key US allies, including European nations, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia. These countries are currently aligned with Biden's policy of unequivocal support for Ukraine. They would be placed in an awkward and weakened position.
The report contends that this would erode America's credibility, portraying the US as an unreliable partner that breaks its commitments. To mitigate such fallout, the CCP anticipates that Trump's strategy would extend beyond ending the Russia-Ukraine war. He would likely seek a strategic alliance with Russia, thereby undermining the Beijing-Moscow partnership.
Undermining the Sino-Russian Alliance
A cornerstone of the report is the CCP's concern over Russia's potential neutrality in a Taiwan Strait conflict under a Trump administration. Securing such neutrality — or even a weak US-Russia alliance — would disrupt the strategic balance. It would also strip China of vital geopolitical support.
What Lies Ahead?
As tensions between the US and China intensify, the stakes have never been higher. The CCP's preparations and the anticipated maneuvers of a Trump administration suggest a geopolitical chess game with global ramifications. Taiwan remains at the heart of this unfolding drama, a flashpoint that could redefine the balance of power in the 21st century.
Whether Trump's business instincts can outmaneuver the CCP's calculated strategies remains to be seen. One thing is clear: the world is watching as this "Battle of the Century" edges closer to reality.
Strategic Recommendations: Shaping a Narrative for Action
The CCP's military think tank report to Xi Jinping contains six pivotal recommendations. These address geopolitical and strategic challenges in the face of potential US policy shifts under Donald Trump. Each suggestion aligns with China's long-term objectives and tactical maneuvers.
1. Strengthening Russian Ties and Expanding Proxy Roles
The report underscores the importance of enhancing military and economic aid to Russia. By encouraging North Korea to deploy its special forces in support of Russian operations, the CCP aims to bolster Russia's position in potential ceasefire negotiations with Trump. This approach seeks to complicate the US peace plan, driving Russia to demand higher concessions and delaying the resolution process.
2. Undermining US Alliances
Leveraging Trump's "America First" stance, the CCP intends to disseminate narratives emphasizing the "selfish" nature of his policies. These campaigns aim to erode trust among US allies by portraying Trump's policies as detrimental to their interests. This divide-and-conquer strategy could weaken US influence across its global alliances.
3. Diversifying Diplomatic Engagements
The CCP also views Trump's isolationist tendencies as an opportunity to deepen relations with the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and ASEAN nations. By swiftly implementing targeted diplomatic strategies, Beijing seeks to counterbalance any aggressive US posturing and solidify alternative partnerships.
4. Cementing Middle Eastern Influence
Acknowledging Trump's probable support for Israel in weakening regional adversaries like Hamas and Hezbollah, the CCP advocates for enhancing clandestine military and economic support to Middle Eastern resistance groups. The goal is to foster closer ties with these factions, further destabilizing US influence in the region.
5. Accelerating Plans for Taiwan
A central recommendation is to "resolve the Taiwan issue" by 2027, coinciding with major domestic political milestones. Abandoning incremental strategies like blockades or seizing outlying islands, the CCP emphasizes the need for a decisive and rapid military campaign. By employing operational surprise and minimizing the US response time, the CCP aims to achieve swift success in the Taiwan Strait.
6. Influencing Key Figures in the US
The CCP identifies Elon Musk and his family as critical components of its united front work. By leveraging Musk's influence, the CCP aims to convey messages to Trump highlighting the costs of US intervention in Taiwan while offering incentives for neutrality. This strategy seeks to exploit Trump's penchant for deal-making, potentially shaping his policy decisions.
A Calculated Response to Geopolitical Challenges
Each recommendation reflects the CCP's intent to maximize its strategic leverage while preempting US countermeasures. From undermining alliances to manipulating influential figures, these strategies highlight Beijing's multifaceted approach to navigating an increasingly volatile international landscape. These revelations also provide critical insights into how the CCP perceives and plans to address potential US actions.
Insider Revelations: A Strategic Glimpse into the CCP's Game Plan
The above insights were disclosed by Yuan Hongbing. He is a former Peking University professor known for his deep connections within the CCP system. Yuan's commentary offers a stark view of the political maneuvers and strategies brewing within Beijing's elite circles.
The CCP's Political Machinations
According to Yuan, the CCP military think tank's proposals reveal a calculated and deceptive strategy. He highlights the shrewdness of CCP politicians and their advisory scholars, emphasizing their ability to craft multi-layered tactics to counter external threats. In particular, the CCP's response to a potential Trump administration reflects its determination to secure its geopolitical objectives.
Yuan characterizes the looming confrontation between the United States and the CCP regime as a high-stakes contest. On one side is Trump, whose sharp business acumen and leadership style reflect the bold instincts of a transformative leader. On the other Xi Jinping is leveraging the calculated cunning of a seasoned Communist politician.
Trump's Cabinet: A Hawkish Counterforce
The composition of Trump's anticipated cabinet further underscores the gravity of the geopolitical struggle. Led by prominent figures like Marco Rubio, this team comprises a group of hawkish policymakers with a keen understanding of 21st-century global dynamics. According to Yuan, this "combat legion" is uniquely equipped to confront the CCP's ambitions head-on. Their strategies squarely target Beijing's global expansionism.
Yuan notes that Trump's leadership combines the incisiveness of a businessman with the resolve of a statesman. His unyielding determination to reshape the global order contrasts sharply with the CCP's objectives. That positions him as a formidable opponent to the regime.
A Battle of Strengths and Missteps
Despite these advantages, Yuan warns of potential miscalculations. He suggests that Trump might overestimate the effectiveness of trade, economic, and diplomatic wars in dismantling the CCP's entrenched power. While these tools are potent, Yuan implies that they may not be sufficient to address the broader challenges posed by the CCP's multifaceted strategies.
As the stage is set for this monumental geopolitical clash, Yuan's revelations offer a sobering reminder of the stakes involved and the complex interplay of strategies shaping the future of US-China relations.
Trump's Vision vs. Xi's Strategy: A Crossroads of Global Ideologies
The Core of Trump's Vision: Confronting the CCP's Rise
Yuan Hongbing asserts that for Trump to truly "Make America Great Again," the United States must decisively dismantle the CCP's political, economic, and military ambitions, cultivated over the past three decades. Without this pivotal defeat, Trump's campaign promise risks becoming mere rhetoric. It is a view echoed even within the CCP's military think tank.
Xi Jinping, meanwhile, is orchestrating plans for what could be a "battle of the century" in the Taiwan Strait. He is treating this as a high-stakes gamble for China's national destiny. The CCP's internal assessments identify Taiwan as the ideal battleground due to its proximity and strategic significance.
Clashing Visions: A New Global Order
Han Lianchao, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former CCP foreign ministry official, emphasizes the inevitability of a confrontation between the United States and the CCP. Xi Jinping envisions a "new international order" defined by totalitarian communist leadership, directly opposing the post-World War II democratic and rules-based framework established by the United States.
During a recent meeting with US President Joe Biden, Xi outlined four "red lines" for America:
- Acquiescing to a CCP-led takeover of Taiwan,
- Ignoring the suppression of Chinese civil rights,
- Accepting the CCP's authoritarian system, and
- Allowing its global authoritarian expansion.
These demands, fundamentally unacceptable to the United States, leave no room for compromise, forcing a response from Washington.
Han further argues that democracy in China is the only way to prevent war. Drawing on Immanuel Kant's insights into Europe's history of wars, Han urges the US to promote democratic reforms in China to ensure lasting peace.
Ideological and Strategic Tensions
Cai Xia, a former professor at the CCP's Central Party School, also underscores the inevitability of conflict. He cites the irreconcilable ideological and systemic differences between the US and the CCP. While Xi promotes his vision of a "community with a shared future for mankind," he prioritizes global ambitions like the Belt and Road Initiative over addressing China's sharp domestic decline.
Xi's latest gambit — the CCP's stake in Peru's Chancay Port — places a strategic threat close to US borders, signaling an escalation in geopolitical tensions. Faced with mounting internal crises, Xi may provoke conflicts in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea to divert attention domestically.
The Disturbing Mindset of CCP 'Little Pinks'
Shocking chat logs from CCP-affiliated "little pinks" (online nationalists) highlight their support for an aggressive takeover of Taiwan. Chillingly, some advocate completely destroying Taiwan to spur economic growth. They reason that a devastated Taiwan could solve China's overcapacity issues and create long-term employment through reconstruction.
Screenshots reveal discussions valuing the economic potential of Taiwan's destruction, with projected job creation in civil engineering lasting up to 30 years. These views showcase a mindset starkly different from that of the global community, emphasizing economic gain over human cost.
A War of Necessity or a Strategic Error?
As Trump seeks to reshape global politics with his America First policy, the CCP's drive to achieve its strategic objectives presents a dangerous challenge. Yuan warns that without a proactive US response, the CCP's ambitions could irreparably harm global stability.
By understanding the CCP's motivations and values, the US can better anticipate its next moves, ensuring preparedness for what increasingly appears to be an unavoidable confrontation. The stakes of this ideological and strategic conflict are higher than ever.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
Find articles by Jennifer Zeng on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.
