Washington Wants More from Japan: Defense Burden, Readiness, and Resolve

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Former United States Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Harvard University Professor Emeritus Joseph Nye — both regarded as leading "Japan hands" in Washington — have recently passed away. John Hamre, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), has also announced his retirement.

For years, visiting Armitage had become a near-ritual for Japanese politicians traveling to Washington. However, a senior researcher at a US think tank familiar with Japan-US relations notes that Japan still seems stuck in an outdated mindset. Tokyo, he notes, seems to think that simply engaging with a few Japan-friendly figures in Washington is enough to assure their interests are represented, even though that era is long over. It's a valid criticism.

Japan's Defense Debate

Perhaps reflecting a growing sense of urgency within the Japanese government, the Japan Foundation recently invited Oren Cass (41) to Japan. Cass, the founder of the conservative think tank American Compass and a close associate of US Vice President JD Vance who is known for expressing his views on the Donald Trump administration's trade policy.

In a recent Chuo Koron dialogue, however, it was not his views on trade that stood out most. Instead, he emphasized that debates over what percentage of GDP should go to defense were missing the point. What mattered, he argued, was whether countries like Japan and Germany could credibly defend themselves — Japan against China, and Germany against Russia — even if that meant substantially increasing their defense budgets.

GOP Thinking

Elbridge Colby, US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and the Pentagon's third-ranking official, expressed a similar view in written testimony submitted to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing. He called for Japan to raise its defense budget to 3% of GDP as soon as possible. In his oral remarks, he also suggested that Taiwan should aim for 10%.

Cass's position closely aligns with Colby's. During a recent visit to Japan, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth expressed confidence that Japan would make sound decisions regarding the defense capabilities it needs. Although he refrained from commenting directly on defense spending, Cass's comments seem to reflect the prevailing sentiment within circles close to the Trump administration.

Quiet Pressure

Fred Fleitz is vice president of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a think tank closely aligned with the Trump administration. He offered similar views in an interview with Seiron, speaking to The Sankei Shimbun's Washington correspondent Yoshihisa Komori. While his tone was more restrained than Cass's, he suggested that President Trump is generally satisfied with Japan's recent moves to double its defense budget and, for the time being, isn't pressing for additional commitments.

Although some in Trump's political base have called for more aggressive demands on Japan, Fleitz indicated that the president hasn't gone that far. 

Still, he noted that if expectations were to grow for Japan to assume greater responsibility and reduce the asymmetry in the alliance, the Trump administration would likely convey those expectations discreetly and amicably. This approach would contrast with the more public pressure it has applied to Europe.

Taiwan and Deterrence

Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump, also stressed the importance of preparing for a potential Taiwan contingency in a recent Bungei Shunju interview.

He welcomed Japan's increased defense spending and the reinforcement of its bases in the Nansei Islands as positive developments. However, he argued that Japan, the US, and Taiwan must engage in more detailed coordination on how they would respond in the event of a crisis. 

According to Pottinger, the more clearly Japan demonstrates both the capability and determination to defend itself, the less likely it is that an actual conflict will occur. He underscored that while war can be avoided, it requires active measures. Deterrence is not possible through inaction.

Rising Threats, Passive Japan

As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine and China asserts itself in the Indo-Pacific, authoritarian regimes are increasingly challenging the status quo by force. For experts close to the Trump administration, the message to Japan is clear: every country must be able to defend itself. The real concern, they suggest, is Japan's persistently passive stance.

Need for a Strategic Vision

Economist Keiichiro Kobayashi, writing in Bungei Shunju, cautioned that Japan should not treat ongoing negotiations with the United States as merely a bilateral dispute over Trump tariffs. Instead, he urged Japanese policymakers to seize the moment. He wants them to propose a new framework for global economic governance and articulate a broader strategic vision.

However, officials such as Defense Minister Gen Nakatani have maintained that trade and security issues should be treated separately. So far, there has been little indication that the government is prepared to engage in the kind of integrated, forward-looking dialogue Kobayashi advocates. This reluctance stands in stark contrast to the rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

China's Airspace Violations

Despite the intensifying pressure around Japan, the political response remains muted. On May 3, near the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel intruded into Japanese territorial waters. The CCG then launched a helicopter launched from the vessel, which intentionally entered Japanese airspace. 

Some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) expressed frustration that the government's response amounted to this airspace violation little more than formal expressions of "regret" or "strong protest." It remains unclear, however, whether Japan's political leadership fully grasps the seriousness of the threat.

Domestic Push for Independence

This month, the only noteworthy political commentary came in the form of a Seiron dialogue between former LDP Policy Research Council Chair Koichi Hagiuda and former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi. 

Hagiuda acknowledged that the so-called Trump tariffs present a serious national challenge, but also framed them as a chance for Japan to reexamine its domestic policies. While emphasizing the importance of maintaining shared values with the US as allies, he argued that Japan must begin reducing its dependence on America. This includes areas such as food self-sufficiency.

Kobayashi agreed, expressing a similar sense of urgency. He stressed the importance of building a nation that is not swayed by foreign trends or external pressures.

Offering advice to Kobayashi, who is considered a potential contender for LDP leadership, Hagiuda emphasized the need for political courage — the strength to stand firm and resist when necessary. The same standard, he implied, applies to himself. If Japan is to chart a more independent course, its politicians must act with conviction and demonstrate a willingness to confront challenges head-on.

Relying on a handful of "Japan experts" in Washington is no longer sustainable.

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Author: Takashi Arimoto, The Sankei Shimbun

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