Japanese PM Ishiba meets President Xi of China on the sidelines of APEC in Peru. (©Cabinet Office of the Prime Minister)
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Tensions between Japan and China are heating up this summer. And I wonder how many people truly realize it.
At the July 10 Japan-China foreign ministers' meeting in Malaysia, Chinese Communist Party Politburo member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi remarked, "Correctly recognizing and addressing history is a moral and contemporary issue that the Japanese side must constantly confront."
According to the Chinese side, Wang's main message was on "historical issues." But none of the Japanese media reported it that way.
Rather, news coverage focused on scattered signs that China is warming toward Japan, with the anticipated resumption of imports of Japanese marine products (excluding those from 10 prefectures) and beef.
However, this view is overly superficial. This year, China marks what it calls its 80th anniversary of the War of Resistance Against Japan. Both the public and private sectors, therefore, have been ramping up anti-Japan sentiment in the lead-up to the CCP's September 3 Victory Day parade.
War Memory, Party Message
On July 7, a ceremony was held at the Museum of the War of Chinese People's Resistance Against Japanese Aggression in the suburbs of Beijing to commemorate the 88th anniversary of the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. This event is what triggered the Second Sino-Japanese War.
Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and the fifth-ranking official in the Communist Party hierarchy, attended the event that day. Notably, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party, wasn't there — an absence that carries significance.
Xi instead laid flowers at the Hundred Regiments Offensive Memorial Hall Square in Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, and visited its memorial hall.
The Hundred Regiments Offensive refers to a clash between the Chinese Communist Party's Eighth Route Army and the Imperial Japanese Army in North China from August to December 1940. While the Eighth Route Army had previously focused solely on guerrilla tactics, this operation saw the unprecedented mobilization of over 100 regiments.
It was also the first time Japanese forces suffered significant losses in battle at the hands of the Eighth Route Army in the Second Sino-Japanese War.
Rewriting the War
To reinforce its "legitimacy," the Chinese Communist Party loudly proclaims its victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan.
Yet it's worth noting that the Kuomintang forces bore the brunt of the fighting against the Imperial Japanese Army. The Eighth Route Army mostly remained in retreat, limited to guerrilla warfare.
Xi's actions were an attempt to signal, both domestically and internationally, that the Eighth Route Army also engaged in large-scale combat against Japan.
Anti-Japan Films Flood Screens
Three major anti-Japanese war films highlighting alleged atrocities committed by the Imperial Japanese Army are set to be released in China.
On July 31 (delayed to September 18), a film about the Kwantung Army's Epidemic Prevention and Water Purification Department (Unit 731), which is said to have conducted germ warfare research, will premiere. This will be followed on August 2 by a film featuring harrowing alleged photographic records of the Nanjing Incident.
And on August 8, a film depicting the CCP's version of the rescue of British POWs by Chinese fishermen oppressed by the Japanese military will be screened. Large-scale promotional campaigns for these films are already underway.
This series of developments has raised concerns about a possible resurgence of hostility toward Japanese residents in China.
Victory Day Showcase
The anniversary will culminate on September 3 with a massive military parade in Tiananmen Square.
China claims this will be the third major military parade held by a global power this year, following events in Moscow in May and Washington in June. The parade is intended to elevate China's national prestige and further consolidate Xi Jinping's authority.
Chinese commentators are touting it as the largest and most impressive parade to date, both in scale and sophistication. They say the United States, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and others will be left awestruck by the might of the People's Liberation Army.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is already expected to attend. In addition, a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit is scheduled to take place from August 31 to September 1 in Tianjin, near Beijing.
Several heads of state, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose country is a member of the SCO, might also attend the Victory Day parade.
Modern-day Yalta Conference?
According to some reports, China has extended an invitation to President Donald Trump. At the very least, Chinese authorities have not denied it.
What would it look like if Trump were to visit Beijing and hold talks with Xi and Putin on international affairs? It could become a "modern-day Yalta conference," with implications for the future of the international order. And the stage would be set, not in Europe, but this time in East Asia.
Moreover, the presence of an American president looking on as the People's Liberation Army marches past, now equipped with cutting-edge weaponry and preparing for a possible invasion of Taiwan, would be nothing but a dark joke.
Of course, it's unlikely that an American president would attend a military parade in China, and I admit such concerns are unfounded.
At the same time, however, I can't shake a lingering fear that, given the current geopolitical climate, Trump might show up where Xi, Putin, and others are gathering to strike a deal. If that happens, Japan could face a second defeat — not on the battlefield, but on the diplomatic front.
Avoid the Political Trap
The proposal for a Japanese statement marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II has now been dropped, I believe. In any event, it would be extremely out of line for the government to issue a prime minister's statement or similar document while China is plotting such a historical and diplomatic campaign.
Regardless of its content, China would undoubtedly criticize it as inadequate and exploit it for political purposes. To that end, Tokyo must remain vigilant toward China's actions and respond with necessary measures as swiftly as possible.
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Author: Hideo Tarumi
(Read this in Japanese)
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