Why the India- Pakistan Ceasefire Must Hold

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India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire, brokered by the United States. It halts the fighting that has been ongoing since a late May terrorist attack in the Kashmir region.

The Kashmir region is a perennial powder keg, where the two countries have repeatedly clashed or waged war. Both nations claim sovereignty over the entire region. Even though both countries are nuclear powers with comparable numbers of warheads in their respective arsenals, they continue to face off against each other.

It is a tense situation, which could have escalated in unimaginable ways. Washington's mediation efforts nevertheless managed to achieve a ceasefire through short-term negotiations and are deserving of praise.

However, both sides continue to claim that the other side is violating the ceasefire. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the situation will truly normalize. To ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, both countries should exercise maximum restraint and abide by the ceasefire agreement.

We hope that the United States will continue to encourage communication and de-escalation of tensions between the two countries.

*Security officials inspect a Pakistani drone attack on a house in Indian-administered Kashmir on May 10. (©AP via Kyodo News)*

Act of Terrorism Triggers Bilateral Conflict

An April 22 terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir triggered the current military conflict. Twenty-six civilians were killed in the attack. The Indian government accused Pakistan of involvement and retaliated with a missile attack on May 7.

Pakistan's government, in turn, condemned the Indian attack as an "act of war" and retaliated with missiles and drones. Then, on May 10, Pakistan attacked an Indian air force base. It claimed that this was in response to an Indian attack on one of its own air force bases near the capital of Islamabad.

The situation became even more tense after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reportedly called a meeting of the National Command Authority. NCA is the country’s decision-making authority on nuclear weapons.

This and other disturbing developments prompted Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other US officials to move to arrange a ceasefire. President Donald Trump was eager to announce on social media that "India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE." That was likely due to his desire to highlight his diplomatic achievements amid the difficulties of the Ukraine peace talks.

As both India and Pakistan were keen to avoid a prolonged conflict, they welcomed the US mediation.

*Quad country foreign ministers. From left to right, Takeshi Iwaya, Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Marco Rubio and Penny Wong. (©Kyodo)*

Efforts Necessary to Keep the Peace

The Indian subcontinent achieved independence in August 1947. Ever since, India and Pakistan have been fighting over the ownership of the Kashmir region. They each possess around 170 nuclear warheads in their faceoff. At the same time, domestic extremist groups continuously stoke the fires of conflict.

China also claims parts of the region and continues to be engaged in a border dispute with India. The international community must remain vigilant to prevent this complex, seemingly irreconcilable quarrel from developing into a chain of regional conflicts.

Japan, which maintains friendly relations with both India and Pakistan, should also step up its efforts to ensure that the ceasefire agreement is respected.