Chinese President Xi Jinping (©Kyodo)
Xi Jinping intends to have the upper hand in his relationship with Japan's new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba. This is in keeping with his view that China stands "tall in the East."
Xi seeks to present himself to his people as the most powerful leader in Asia, feared abroad and unchallenged by rivals at home. He likes to speak of a "new era" in which the balance of power shifts in China's favor.
This has profound implications for Mr Ishiba and his Cabinet. I believe that the government must be careful not to appear weak in China's eyes. It would be especially dangerous if China is left with the impression that the long-standing alliance between Japan and America is under pressure.
Japan has worked assiduously to develop friendly relationships with many like-minded countries. However, it has only one ally: the United States.
Xi will seize on any hint of trouble between Tokyo and Washington. He will try to use it as a lever to reshape the international order in his own interest.
Xi's New Era
I have studied Xi Jinping for several years and noticed that he often refers to the concept of a "new era" 新时 (Xīn shí).
The phrase is also contained in the title of a political book he wrote, The Chinese Dream: Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. Every person in China is obliged to read this book. Many passages from it have been incorporated into the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) constitution.
In his first formal message to Prime Minister Ishiba, Xi stated that he hopes that a "stable Sino-Japanese relationship meets the requirements of the new era."
This should set alarm bells ringing in Tokyo.
Although Xi also spoke of developing a "relationship of mutual benefit in an all-around manner" I am pretty sure that what he really wants is for Japan to allow China to act as it pleases.
Controlling China's Army
Xi Jinping likes to wear a uniform. As chair of the Central Military Commission, he also presides over strategy. His dream is to establish a "world-class" military, completely loyal to him as he sits at the top of the chain of command.
It was on Xi's orders that the Chinese air force recently violated Japanese airspace. He told the Chinese Coast Guard to harass Japan around the Senkaku islands. Xi himself is also the sea lord of the Chinese navy conducting joint exercises with Russia around the Japanese islands.
Professor Susan L Shirk from the University of California has examined Xi's hold on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). She notes that is even more complete than his hold on the CCP and the government.
"Xi acts as if he is personally in charge of everything. To show how hands-on he is, Xi has taken the new post of commander-in-chief of the PLA Joint Battle Command. He chairs the National Security Commission. Xi also handles internal security directly, thereby reducing the chances of a coup," says Professor Shirk.
Freedom of Navigation
Chinese admirals have briefed Xi Jinping on the recent maneuvers by ships belonging to the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). On September 25, the destroyer JS Sazanami, sailed through the strait between China and Taiwan as part of a freedom of navigation exercise. It was also supported by the US and other democratic countries.
China condemned the move.
JS Sazanami undertook its mission just as lively discussions about defense and security were underway in Tokyo. I am pleased that Japanese politicians debate policy with gusto, expressing a wide range of opinions.
This contrasts sharply with China, where party members must pledge loyalty to Xi. They are told to avoid any "improper discussion" and not to raise questions about the central policies set by the core leader.
Open Debate
It is a relief that Japan, as a democracy, takes a far more open approach to politics. However, I worry about the implications of the recent debates. What messages do they send about the direction of the Japan-US relationship? Is Shigeru Ishiba less committed to this key alliance than his predecessor, Fumio Kishida?
Before he became prime minister, Mr Ishiba suggested changes to the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). That agreement is the basis for the status and rights of the US military in Japan. He described the current arrangement as "the only asymmetric bilateral treaty in the world."
Mr Ishiba also wrote about this in a book. "I believe that the Japanese people have procrastinated in thinking deeply about what independence is and what a sovereign state is," he offered.
Protecting Japan
Mr Ishiba's tone has changed since he assumed the leadership role. In an October 4 speech to the Diet, he vowed to protect Japan in a rapidly changing global security environment.
"There is no doubt that we should fundamentally strengthen Japan's defense capabilities," he said.
Regarding China, the prime minister further stated that it is "day-by-day strengthening its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the East and South China seas."
He expressed shock at the recent killing of a Japanese child in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.
His tone was patriotic, firm, and well-informed. Nevertheless, foreign policy will not be a priority for Mr Ishiba ahead of the Lower House elections at the end of October. He has articulated an urgent need to focus on domestic problems. Ishiba is also struggling to win back public trust in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Meeting Premier Li
Despite the looming election and a busy domestic agenda, Mr Ishiba has decided to travel to Laos on October 10-11 for meetings with ASEAN leaders.
This may lead to an encounter with China's Premier, Li Qiang. Such a summit would provide Ishiba an opportunity to make good on his pledge to demand "responsible action" from Beijing.
In preparing for the ASEAN leaders conference in Laos, Mr Ishiba may also wish to reflect upon the American position towards China and Asia. Naturally, this is being debated ahead of the US presidential election.
The Biden administration has identified China as the only major competitor to the US, with "the intent to reshape the international order and the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it."
Prime Minister Ishiba has already been briefed on China by the US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel. The two men met in Tokyo on October 3. Ambassador Emanuel expressed his hope that their countries will further strengthen their alliance and cooperation.
In my view, this alliance is well suited to respond to Xi Jinping's vision of a "new era" dominated by China. Cooperation helps counter Xi's power and does not undermine Japan's sovereignty or independence.
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Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.
