Xi Jinping, Power Struggles and Successor Lists in the CCP

Rumors of Chinese President Xi Jinping's potential resignation have ignited heated discussions across Chinese media and social platforms. They are fueled by reports from overseas commentators and alleged insider leaks. These claims, ranging from Xi's health issues to internal power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), paint a picture of a leadership under strain. While some sources suggest a coordinated push to replace Xi, others argue he retains firm control, with military purges signaling preparations for conflict.

This article explores the key claims, implications, and uncertainties surrounding China's political future.

The Rumored Push for Xi's Exit

Independent commentator Cai Shenkun recently sparked a frenzy by claiming that CCP elders, frustrated by China's domestic and international challenges, are pressuring Xi Jinping to step down. Their target, according to reports, is at the Fourth Plenary Session or by the 21st Party Congress. Cai also claimed that the Fourth Plenary Session would be held from August 27 to 30 in Beijing.

A leaked successor list names Politburo Standing Committee member Ding Xuexiang as the next General Secretary, with Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining as Premier. Other figures, such as Premier Li Qiang, are also reportedly in line for key roles.

Cai's report gains traction due to his accurate prediction of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu's downfall, suggesting reliable CCP sources. However, skepticism persists.

Ding Xuexiang, Xi's long-time aide, lacks experience in local governance, making his elevation to General Secretary contentious. Chen Jining, tied to Xi's Tsinghua and Fujian cliques, is a rising star. However, his connections to the Shanghai clique raise questions about factional loyalties. These speculations highlight the opaque nature of CCP power dynamics, where personal networks and factional alliances shape leadership transitions.

Health Concerns and Military Purges

Rumors of Xi's declining health have added fuel to the speculation. Foreign and Chinese media captured moments during Xi's recent visits to Russia and Shanghai, where his head appeared to shake uncontrollably. These prompted medical experts to suggest a possible stroke. A scar on Xi's head, visible in a photo from August 2024, further supports claims of health issues. These physical signs, combined with Xi's temporary disappearance from public view, have led some to argue that his grip on power is weakening.

*A close-up image of Xi Jinping's head shows a scar on the right back of his skull, appearing to be from minimally invasive surgery. Image source: Vietnam News.*

*Original photo of Xi Jinping's meeting with Vietnam's Leader Tô Lâm and his wife in Beijing on August 19, 2024, released by **Việt Nam News**.*

Concurrently, purges within the Central Military Commission (CMC) signal turmoil. Of the six new CMC members appointed after the 20th Party Congress, half — including Li Shangfu and Miao Hua — have been investigated. Reports of Vice Chairman He Weidong's detention and General He Hongjun's alleged suicide while detained underscore the intensity of internal struggles. Some speculate these purges reflect a failed coup to regain military control by Xi's allies. Meanwhile, others see them as evidence of Xi's rivals gaining the upper hand. They have pointed particularly to CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, who reportedly dodged scrutiny despite corruption allegations.

Politburo Meeting and Factional Tensions

On May 14, an unprecedented expanded Politburo meeting reportedly took place. It involved retired elders, military leaders, and former Standing Committee members, including Hu Jintao. Sources claim the meeting focused on Xi's leadership, with 12 accusations leveled against him and demands for his resignation. While some report a preliminary agreement to finalize a new leadership lineup at the Fourth Plenary Session, others say no consensus was reached. That gap sets the stage for a contentious vote in August.

This meeting underscores deep factional divides. Figures like Zhang Youxia, Vice Premier He Lifeng, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi are said to be distancing themselves from Xi, signaling a "de-Xi" movement.

Meanwhile, Hu Chunhua, once seen as Xi's successor but sidelined at the 20th Party Congress, has reemerged with high-profile activities. This has led some to speculate he could replace Xi. These shifts suggest a CCP grappling with its future direction amid economic woes and US-China tensions.

Geopolitical Maneuvers and Taiwan Concerns

Amid internal turmoil, external pressures loom large. Former Peking University professor Yuan Hongbing claims the CCP promised to open its markets to the US in exchange for support for "peaceful unification" with Taiwan.

However, Yuan dismisses the CCP's promise as a scam, arguing the CCP's authoritarian system cannot sustain a free economy. Such promises may be a tactic to delay US tariffs while advancing Beijing's Taiwan agenda.

More alarmingly, former journalist Zhao Lanjian reports a strict military alcohol ban, which he interprets as preparation for an attack on Taiwan. The ban, coupled with purges in the military and aerospace sectors, aims to ensure loyalty and readiness.

Zhao argues these moves are not signs of Xi's weakness but a deliberate strategy to mobilize for war. This contrasts with claims of Xi's diminished power, suggesting that even if Xi's influence wanes, other CCP leaders may pursue aggressive policies toward Taiwan.

A Fractured CCP and Global Implications

The speculation surrounding Xi's future reflects broader discontent within the CCP and Chinese society. Economic stagnation, the US-China trade war, and internal purges have eroded confidence in Xi's leadership. The CIA's recent videos targeting CCP officials, urging them to defect, highlight America's shift toward open confrontation. Within the CCP, officials reportedly oppose Xi but hesitate to act, waiting for a societal breaking point.

Whether Xi steps down, retains power, or faces a coup, the outcome will shape China's trajectory and global stability. The successor list, health rumors, and military purges may be deliberate leaks to test reactions or genuine signs of upheaval.

For now, the CCP's opaque power struggles keep the world guessing, with Taiwan and US-China relations hanging in the balance. As factions vie for control, the coming months will be critical in determining whether China's leadership undergoes a seismic shift or doubles down on its current path.

Author: Jennifer Zeng