Year Three of the Invasion of Ukraine: What Lessons for China?

Until the armed forces of Ukraine launched their lightning foray into Russian territory in early August, many observers had concluded that Kyiv's prospects for maintaining control of much of its national territory were bleak. Close to half a million invading Russian troops were continuing to inexorably press forward along the more than 1,000km-long (620-mile) front line like a plague of locusts. 

Calls for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, even if the resulting "peace" means conceding considerable territory to Russia have become deafening in some quarters. That includes certain US politicians. 

Counting to Two for Peace

There is only one slight problem, however.

Any lasting peace would have to be worked out by the two belligerents, the sovereign nations of Ukraine and Russia. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly declared that Ukraine is not a "real country." 

On one occasion he even produced a 17th century map made by a cartographer for France's King Louis XIV (1643-1715) to emphasize his point. (I wonder how many times the map of Europe has changed since the days of the Sun King.)

Moreover, Putin elaborates in his infamous 5,000-word essay "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians." Published on the Kremlin's official website in July 2021, Putin uses it to elaborate on his assertion that Ukrainians and Russians are "one people"  

Now, the Russian leadership's position is that Ukraine is nothing but a "fake country." Furthermore, the self-professed Ukrainians are merely psychologically mixed-up Russians who need to be taught a lesson about their own history. As such, any peace treaty signed between Moscow and Kyiv is likely to be worth considerably less than an antique map. Putin will consider the concessions he receives as merely a down payment. 

Xi's Ukraine Ambivalence

China's position on the Ukraine conflict can be characterized as ambivalent at best. Russia invaded a few short weeks after President Xi Jinping met Putin at the Beijing Winter Olympics. That was in early February 2022. It is also where the two proclaimed a "no limits" partnership between their two countries. 

Although it has never explicitly endorsed the invasion, Beijing has adamantly refused to condemn it or even call it an "invasion." Moreover, it has expressed an understanding of Russia's position. 

Foreign Minister Wang Yi, for example, declared sympathy for "Russia's legitimate concerns." Instead, China blamed the war on the United States and NATO. They "forced Putin" to launch his "special military operation" to protect Russia's own security.

Beijing's 'Spheres of Influence'

China is well known for denouncing critics of its horrendous human rights record for interfering in its domestic affairs. But another pillar of Chinese foreign policy is respecting the territorial integrity of nations. How then is it able to defend Russia's actions? Through sophistry, it pins the blame for all the atrocities committed by the Russian invaders on the West. 

You see, Beijing argues, by expanding the defensive alliance of NATO to countries that had once been part of the Russian and then Soviet empires, it backed Russia into a corner. 

That is a dead giveaway that Beijing is obsessed with the spheres of influence model of international relations. In that model, major powers control large swaths of the map and smaller nations near them do as they are told. 

Like Putin, Xi Jinping also has a self-serving fondness for old maps of dubious origin. He is especially fond of those that portray the South China Sea and East China Sea in a manner that he can use to back up Beijing's extensive territorial claims. In fact, for its own "security" Beijing would very much like to see East Asia become its very own sphere of influence. According to that scenario, it would push the United States out and a docile Japan would become resigned to its fate. 

In short, nationalists in both China and Russia see eye to eye.

China 'In Denial'

Jude Blanchette is a well-known China specialist currently serving as Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He has an interesting article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs This Week.  It is entitled "China Is in Denial About the War in Ukraine: Why Chinese Thinkers Underestimate the Costs of Complicity in Russia's Aggression." 

Blanchette traces the change in attitude of international relations experts at prominent Chinese universities and think tanks from when Russian forces first entered Ukraine. At first, there was considerable consternation about collateral damage China might suffer. "Chinese scholars consistently concluded that Russia's invasion would drive a major realignment of the international order."

In a way that was a validation of Xi's theory of a "new era" for the global order with "profound changes not seen in century." Xi sees that as leading to a shattering of US dominance. Many opinionmakers in China saw the invasion as ushering in this new era. However, the shambolic early days of the invasion might have given some second thoughts.

Sanctions and Evasion

China particularly worried about the sanctions slapped on Russia, especially its expulsion from the SWIFT system. Those sanctions were imposed for facilitating transactions between banks across national borders. 

Beijing has repeatedly condemned the sanctions. It worried that China could become the target for similar treatment in the event of a Taiwan invasion. There were even fears that a protracted war in Ukraine could short circuit the globalization process that is essential for the Chinese economy.

These days, however, Chinese opinion is much more sanguine. Russia has managed to evade many of the sanctions. Moreover, the Russian economy is booming and Russia's military-industrial complex has been reinvigorated. So much so, in fact, that some economists argue that stopping the war would result in the immediate collapse of the Russian economy.

China has played a role in keeping Putin's war machine humming. Despite proclaiming its neutrality, China has done everything it can to assist Russia. That includes furnishing dual-use and borderline military items that can be used in the conflict. 

It has gotten to the point that in July, NATO members issued a joint declaration labeling China a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war against Ukraine. However, Xi apparently has concluded that alienating trade partners is a price worth paying to help his soul brother Putin. 

Economic Problems for Putin

However, Beijing's high stakes bet may still come a cropper. Footage of Ukrainian tanks zipping through the Russian countryside does not make strongman Putin look all that strong. 

And the Russian central bank admits that Russian businesses are being locked out of billions of dollars thanks to payment issues at foreign banks. Even countries that continued to do business as usual with Russia are starting to balk at not being able to be paid. 

Russia's labor reserves and production capacities are practically exhausted. And the economy has overheated to the extent that the result could be stagflation and a deep recession in 2025. That certainly will not boost Putin's popularity. 

The Chinese seem blithely unconcerned, however.

Danger of Wrong Conclusions

Blanchette writes, "After watching two years of war in Ukraine, however, many have concluded that the West has no stomach for conflict and will grow tired of supporting democracies facing an invading force if the economic costs are high."

He believes that if the Chinese conclude that Russia's gamble paid off and they doubt Western resolve "it suggests that the Taiwan Strait—and the world at large—may be heading in a still more dangerous direction."

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Author: John Carroll
John Carroll is a Kyoto-based freelance writer and JAPAN Forward contributor. He is currently writing a book on the religious traditions and superstitions of Japan's ancient capital. And watch JAPAN Forward for his upcoming series on the CCP's United Front.