Is Xi Jinping Really 'Stupid' or Has the World Been Fooled?

If we were to name a phrase that overseas Chinese dissidents mostly use to describe Xi Jinping, it would be "stupid pig" (蠢猪). Although pigs are not necessarily "stupid," in Chinese culture, they are somehow connected to foolishness.

But has anybody ever thought about the possibility that all of us have been fooled by Xi Jinping's seeming "foolishness" that is used to disguise his real goal?

Let's roll out this possibility step by step.

What Does Xi Want?

First, suppose Xi's real goal was and has been to pursue and maintain a dictatorship. He would need national isolation for that, as the two concepts are inherently aligned.

Second, when Xi Jinping assumed leadership, 35 years of reform and opening-up had already significantly opened China to the world. This created a powerful momentum that was hard to reverse.

The core outcomes of Deng Xiaoping's reforms were twofold: the flourishing of the private sector and extensive trade and cooperation with the international community led by the United States. Xi Jinping would need to directly target these key achievements to reverse these gains.

Third, we observed that these were exactly what Xi Jinping had been doing. Within China, he began by promoting state enterprises at the expense of private ones, progressively tightening the screws.

This approach deteriorated the operating environment for private businesses. It severely limited the growth opportunities for the private sector. And it led to the extensive confiscation of private assets. This effectively brought the development of the market economy, primarily driven by private enterprises, to a sudden stop.

*Deng Xiaoping and Jimmy Carter on January 31, 1979. (Public domain via Wikimedia Commons)*

Closing Off China

Simultaneously, on the international stage, Xi Jinping has discarded Deng Xiaoping's strategy of "hiding capabilities and biding time," abandoning the primary theme of peaceful development. Xi has openly challenged the United States and the current international order. He has engaged in assertive wolf warrior diplomacy and intentionally stirred tensions with neighboring nations. Thus he has showcased his aggressive ambitions and sharp tactics to the world.

This has led to foreign investors withdrawing from China and shifting international supply chains to other nations. Both had a severe impact on global trade. Notably, Xi has rapidly dismantled Hong Kong's role as a global financial center. This effectively ended China's "reform and opening up to the outside" completely.

Therefore, we can conclude that Xi's actions are unified by a single objective. That is to prepare a favorable domestic and international setting for a smooth transition to a more insular and closed-off nation.

Xi is acutely aware of the significant risks involved in abruptly halting the reform and opening up policy, given its strong momentum. Thus, the technique of applying the brakes is highly complex and requires careful, strategic planning.

Reversing China's Reform

What we have observed is that in his efforts to implement a regression, Xi Jinping has effectively adopted two deceptive strategies.

First, he pretends to be a fool, presenting himself as a stupid person to make the outside world relax its vigilance. He does not care at all if people tease him for being an "elementary school student" and a "stupid pig."

He aims to make people believe that his mistakes are due to his foolishness and brute force. Essentially, he is using feigned ignorance to mask his cunning.

Second, he adopts a roundabout tactic to confuse people by swaying from left to right. That is why he never drives in a straight line in reverse but meanders like a snake. Sometimes, he even adopts a self-contradictory tactic by taking a big step backward and then posing as if he is moving forward. It is to confuse the outside world.

A prime example is the arrest of private entrepreneurs on baseless charges one day, followed by the rollout of policies promoting private sector growth the next day. One day, the announcement of the National Security Law and Anti-Espionage Law scares off foreign investors. The next day, new investment sectors are opened up, inviting more foreign enterprises.

A Master Dictator

It is fairly safe to say that even today, many people still have not penetrated Xi Jinping's schemes and continue to be deceived by him.

Analysts often miss a crucial point about Xi Jinping: He has turned every aspect of China's "reform and opening-up" into a complete disaster. Conversely, in areas like centralization, dictatorship, power preservation, maintaining stability, and eliminating political rivals, he has outshone everyone. He has never left a task unfinished or made a mistake, performing far better than his internal party competitors.

If Xi were truly as stupid as many people think, he wouldn't have been able to achieve today's scenario where the entire party is silenced and he reigns supreme.

*A banner promoting "national security" is displayed in a park in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China, in April 2023, after China amended its counterespionage law. (©Kyodo)*

Returning to the Jungle

There is another angle to look at: It is a basic historical fact that all autocratic regimes in modern history are products of agrarian civilizations. This includes all existing autocratic states.

In the century-long history of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), from its founding to the establishment of its government, what it established was the darkest jungle society of our time.

When the CCP emerged from the jungle and entered a civilized society, it refused to undergo a civilized transformation. This meant it ran into obstacles in all directions. To protect itself, it had to break the rules of civilized society and try to establish its hegemony.

But if the CCP's dream of hegemony is shattered, it will choose to withdraw from civilization. The CCP will re-enter the jungle society it is familiar with and accustomed to.

Preserving Power and Wealth

Deng Xiaoping's reforms were merely attempts to use the vitality of capitalism to rejuvenate the CCP's barren lands. The primary aim was to harness economic growth to secure a lasting wealth of resources for the regime. Thus, when the democratization wave triggered by these reforms began challenging the CCP's political structure, the CCP responded with the Tiananmen Square Massacre. In doing so, it sent a clear message to the world that political reform was a dead end.

In the meantime, the CCP exploited its political monopoly to capture 99% of the benefits from the reforms and opening up.

By 2015, the CCP elite had amassed wealth amounting to tens of trillions of American dollars, enough to last them for centuries. This made the pursuit of further wealth meaningless for the elite. Their priority shifted from accumulating wealth to preserving it.

How can they ensure that their future generations continue to enjoy this wealth indefinitely? The only solution is to maintain their grip on power.

Don't Be Fooled by Xi

Thus, for the CCP, pursuing further reform and opening up poses risks that could threaten the stability of their regime. That's why they needed to reverse course.

If we understand the above, we can comprehend all the unbelievable perversions of the CCP and Xi Jinping in recent years. The biggest mistake made by the international community is to use its perception of the civilized world to treat the CCP as a normal regime, and even to predict CCP behavior. One such assumption is that the CCP may postpone its plan to attack Taiwan because of the economic downturn.

Therefore, the international community needs to recognize that the CCP is not a normal political party — nor is it a normal regime. It will not play its cards according to the civilized rules of the international community. Only with this understanding will it be possible to formulate an effective strategy to deal with the CCP.

Author: Jennifer Zeng

Find articles by Jennifer Zeng on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.