Prime Minister Kishida addresses the United Nations at the Summit of the Future. September 22, 2024 (Courtesy of Prime Minister's Office)
A horrible image of war is likely to remain in the memory of Fumio Kishida long after he steps down as prime minister. In March 2023, he saw for himself a memorial to a massacre in the Ukrainian town of Bucha, where many civilians were killed. Vladimir Putin denied that Russian troops were responsible, claiming - without any evidence - that the deaths were part of an operation by foreign agents to smear the Russian army.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Mr Kishida had been a steadfast friend of its inspirational leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They met briefly on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York the week of September 23. President Zelenskyy once again thanked Japan for its support and went on to outline a "victory plan."
According to military analyst Mykhailo Samus, a top priority is to win international backing for the Ukrainian army to use Western-made long-range missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia. The governments of some countries - such as the United Kingdom - support this approach. Others worry it could lead to a dangerous escalation of the war.
Kishida's Vision
Japan is constitutionally barred from sending weapons or providing direct military assistance to Ukraine. Therefore, Prime Minister Kishida avoids detailed discussions about strategy.
Instead, he speaks of guiding principles that could ensure a peaceful and prosperous future. Chief among these, he says, is the obligation to uphold the rule of law.
"Unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force cannot be tolerated anywhere in the world. Only the free and open international order based on the rule of law can deliver sustainable development and prosperity," says the Japanese leader.
Mr Kishida also joined a summit of leaders of the Quad countries - including India, Australia, and the United States. It was hosted in Delaware by President Joe Biden.
They called for a just peace in Russia's war against Ukraine and condemned the Kremlin's nuclear threats. This they included in a joint statement published on the White House website.
"As four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific, we unequivocally stand for the maintenance of peace and stability across this dynamic region, as an indispensable element of global security and prosperity," the statement says.
Mr Kishida has often warned that the Russian invasion of Ukraine could precipitate a crisis in Asia.
Disarmament Call
At the United Nations in New York, Mr Kishida delivered his last major speech to an international forum. Significantly, the Prime Minister - who is from Hiroshima - called for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
He spoke passionately about his determination to promote realistic and practical efforts toward achieving a world without nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, he also acknowledged "an increasingly dire situation."
Kishida may have been alluding to the manner in which Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are growing worryingly close.
Vladimir Putin visited Kim Jong-Un in Pyongyang in June. Russia and North Korea then agreed to provide military assistance to each other and since then, North Korean weapons have been turning up on battlefields in Ukraine.
Furthermore, China claimed on September 26 that it had fired a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) The missile carried a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean near Japan, Beijing claimed.
"It was an attempt to intimidate," Drew Thompson, a visiting research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, wrote on X.
These sinister developments underscore the importance for Japan of remaining a trusted and well-resourced partner of NATO, the long-standing security pact which binds together Europe and the United States. NATO countries share political values which are closely aligned with those of Japan.
Russian Threat
For many people living in Japan, the rumble of war in Ukraine feels like a distant conflict. However, Russia's potential threat to the home islands of Japan is tangible. On September 23, a Russian reconnaissance aircraft illegally entered Japanese airspace near Hokkaido multiple times. When it ignored warnings to leave, pilots from the Japan Self-Defense Force fired warning flares in its direction.
Prime Minister Kishida ordered a "firm and calm" response to the incident. Defense Minister Minoru Kihara described the violation as "extremely regrettable" and said that Japan has protested strongly to Russia through diplomatic channels.
China Sides with Russia
Japan's 2024 Defense White Paper, states that: "The Russian military is continuing active military activities in the vicinity of Japan and its surrounding areas, showing its tendency to deploy the latest military equipment in the Far East. Russia's military activities in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, coupled with its strategic partnership with China, are posing a strong security concern."
The Japanese Defense Ministry says that for several years running, Russian and Chinese warships have been taking part in joint patrols close to Japan. They are often seen near the northern coasts.
In August 2024, a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance aircraft briefly violated Japan's southern airspace. For China, this was the furthest north it had been spotted. Previously, such flights had been confined to areas near southwest Japan.
This suggests a potential escalation in military collaboration between Beijing and Moscow. As we reported on JAPAN Forward in 2022, ships from the Russian and Chinese navies have been jointly circumnavigating Japan. At the time, former Defense Minister, Nobuo Kishi warned that the operations were "intended to be a demonstration against Japan."
Japan can send a clear signal back. It can show that the free and open international order based upon the rule of law which Mr Kishida mentioned at the UN this week will be firmly upheld - even in the face of multiple threats.
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Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.
