INTERVIEW | Canadian Author George Takach Analyzes the New Cold War

As conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East rage and tensions flare in East Asia, the term New Cold War is echoing through foreign policy discussions. But what distinguishes this new era from the past, and what implications does it hold? Canadian attorney and writer George Takach invites readers to explore the evolving geopolitical and security dynamics of this emerging era.

In his thought-provoking new book Cold War 2.0 (Pegasus Books, March 5, 2024), the author examines many crucial topics. They range from tech wars to the resurgence of authoritarian partnerships and how democracies can effectively address challenges to the current global order. His findings and lessons are both timely and eye-opening.

Originally published in English, a Chinese translation is expected to be released in Taiwan next May.

JAPAN Forward recently engaged with Takach in an exclusive interview. Excerpts follow.

A New Cold or Hot War?

Why is 2014 the starting point of Cold War 2.0?

In 2014, Russia occupied eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea, openly flouting international norms. Around the same time, China intensified its assertive actions in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan, contrasting sharply with its more compliant behavior in the 1970s and '80s under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Since then, both autocratic nations have increasingly rejected the rule-based order.

How does the new Cold War contrast with the old one?

In the old Cold War, the principal players were the United States and the Soviet Union. However, in the emerging new Cold War, the United States finds itself in a rivalry with China. Unlike the Soviet Union, China possesses a remarkable economic prowess and integration on the global stage.

Moreover, a notable change lies in the role of technology. Innovations like artificial intelligence and semiconductors will be pivotal battlegrounds in this New Cold War era.

Tech in the New Cold War

Why do you emphasize technology in your book?

Consider the Ukraine offensive in the Black Sea against Russian fleets. Ukrainian drones have effectively neutralized Russian naval power, ensuring the uninterrupted flow of grain exports at a fraction of the cost of traditional weaponry.

Advancements in military technology are proving invaluable for defensive operations, particularly with naval vessels equipped with Aegis air defense systems. These vessels, enhanced by automated AI, can swiftly identify and intercept missile threats with remarkable precision. The ongoing development of surface and subsurface drones further highlights the rapid evolution of military capabilities.

The US Air Force is increasingly adopting AI for enhanced performance, too. Recent simulations show AI systems outperforming conventional jet fighters in hypothetical dogfights. Expensive aircraft like the F-35 will likely be replaced by more efficient alternatives.

The Pentagon's new Replicator Program aims to swiftly assemble and deploy inexpensive drones within 18 to 24 months. We have likely seen the birth of the last jet fighter pilot.

How do you assess the current conflicts in Europe and Asia?

I called my book Cold War 2.0. But given the degree to which the four principal autocracies - China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea–are cooperating in hot war activities, my book might soon be called World War 3. This is so particularly given the role of Iran in funding and supplying weapons and strategic direction to its proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Moreover, when North Korea is deepening its military assistance to Russia, including boots on the ground.

*Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang on a state visit (©Presidential Executive Office of Russia)*

How do you see China's role?

China's role also has to be considered. Beijing essentially keeps the Russian economy afloat and purchases virtually all the oil Iran can produce. Plus, China's own gray zone military activity around Taiwan, as recently as September with its largest "punishment drills" ever against Taiwan, is very concerning.

I'm sure Moscow and Tehran both welcome Beijing making a move on Taiwan now so that the US is stretched to the limit. Such a move would render the US unable to react as effectively in Europe and the Middle East.

This is why it is time for American allies to step up, chief among them Japan, to initially reinforce deterrence. But if that fails, to ensure that the democracies prevail over the autocracies. It cannot be overstated just how dangerous a time we are living through right now.

Will Xi Jinping take military action against Taiwan after seeing the protracted war in Ukraine?

Just as Ukraine posed a challenge to Russia, Taiwan's thriving liberal democracy is a persistent thorn in Xi Jinping's side. My analysis suggests that China may be poised to launch a full-scale invasion of the island by 2034. During my visit to Taiwan in January, conversations with locals revealed a sobering reality. In the event of a Chinese assault, the island could hold out for only two to three weeks without significant support from the US and its Asia-Pacific allies.

Of course, a fundamental disparity exists between Taiwan and Ukraine. In war simulations I've examined, the grim reality emerges. Within a matter of weeks, the United States could potentially suffer the loss of two battleships and 20 support vessels, comprising a tragic toll of 25,000 fallen soldiers.

In the case of Ukraine, no body bags are returning home to the US. Such harrowing projections underscore the high stakes and challenges in any confrontation over Taiwan's sovereignty. Likewise, they illustrate the importance of bolstering Taiwan's defenses and strengthening alliances to deter potential Chinese military aggression.

Japan's Friendships and Alliances

What are your thoughts on calls for an 'Asian NATO'?

I like the idea of an "Asian NATO". In my book, I suggest a "PATO," a "Pacific Alliance Treaty Organization." The US has bilateral Mutual Defense Treaties one-on-one with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and some other Asian nations. These did not evolve into an Asian NATO for particular historical reasons. It would be positive if these countries would now create an Asian-focused multilateral mutual defense security alliance.

Indeed, useful steps are already being taken in that direction. For example, countries like the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and the US share military intelligence about the East Asian region on a more real-time basis. Their military exercises in the region are increasingly jointly planned and carried out. There was a serious discussion at trilateral summits recently between the US, Japan, and South Korea. And subsequently between the US, Japan, and the Philippines.

*Shigeru Ishiba was designated as the 102nd Prime Minister on October 1. (© Cabinet Secretariat of Japan)*

I should highlight that Japan's role is absolutely crucial in all these initiatives. So, I welcome Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's efforts in building a more robust, jointly-oriented defense culture among the democracies in Asia.

With the US presidential election just two weeks away, how could the outcome impact ongoing global conflicts?

The US elections, both for President, but also Congress, will have a significant impact on the future direction of Cold War 2.0.

The simple fact is the US cannot go it alone in today's world. For instance, America cannot abandon Taiwan to the clutches of China because if semiconductor chips stop flowing from Taiwan to the US (and the other democracies, including Japan), the Western economies will experience a significant depression (not recession, but depression).

Author: Kenji Yoshida