Members of the 2nd Ishiba Cabinet pose for an official photo at the Prime Minister's Official Residence on October 11. (©Sankei by Kazuya Kamogawa)
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A special session of the National Diet convened on November 11 to select Japan's next prime minister. In the runoff election held in the Lower House, Shigeru Ishiba defeated Yoshihiko Noda and was elected as Japan's 103rd prime minister. Following an investiture ceremony at the Imperial Palace, the second Ishiba Cabinet was duly launched.
Ishiba, as president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), represented the ruling coalition of conservative parties. Meanwhile, Noda is the leader of the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
In October's general election, Ishiba failed to attain his minimum goal of capturing a simple majority of ruling party seats. Despite failing to gain the public's trust, neither Prime Minister Ishiba nor LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama took responsibility and resigned. Unfortunately, the principle of constitutional governance was not adhered to and Ishiba was returned to office.
Many LDP members are critical of the Prime Minister. However, they were forced to make the tough choice to back Ishiba's nomination as prime minister. They judged that they could not entrust the helm of the nation to Noda. Simply, the CDP's positions on security policy and other issues are unrealistic.
Dim Outlook for the Minority Government
Now Ishiba will seek to make a fresh start as the leader of the first minority government in 30 years. He is confronted with a mountain of problems at home and abroad. Furthermore, with a fragile base for governance, Prime Minister Ishiba faces a difficult future. We are now threatened with stagnation in national politics.
The first issues to be tackled are those surrounding politics and money.
Prime Minister Ishiba needs to submit a bill to amend the Political Funds Control Act to the extraordinary Diet session. That is scheduled to be convened later in November or December. Then he must make every effort to get it passed.
Achieving Transparency in Political Funds
All lawmakers must then work out a suitable solution to ensure transparency in political funding. They must prevent a recurrence of the problem of failing to report party income.
One focus should be on the abolishment of policy activity expenses. In addition, there should be clear rules on the disclosure of how research, public relations, and living expenses are being used. (These were formerly called documents, communications, and transportation expenses.) Moreover, they should establish a third-party organization to monitor political funds.
Another essential issue is prohibiting foreigners and foreign corporations from purchasing tickets for events held by political parties.
Income Taxes and Economy
The ruling LDP and Komeito Party are also talking with the Democratic Party for the People about the income tax threshold issue. Currently, the opposition DPP holds the casting vote in the Lower House. It has proposed raising the ¥1.03 million JPY ($6,650 USD) threshold for paying income tax and other issues. But the question of how to secure sufficient government revenue also needs to be considered.
Ensuring wage increases that exceed inflation and achieving self-sustaining economic growth will be key. Otherwise, Japan may not be able to completely escape deflation.
As the ruling parties do not have a majority, policy discussions with the opposition parties are essential. However, at the same time, the government must not lose sight of the overall picture regarding economic and fiscal management.
Avoiding Chaos in the Diet
Chaos in the Diet would cause Japanese politics to become inward-looking. If that occurs, policies to protect the peace, independence, and safety of the Japanese people would be neglected.
It would also be disastrous if Japan lost interest in foreign affairs and national security.
The nation's alliance with the United States is of the utmost importance to our national security. Prime Minister Ishiba must meet face-to-face with President-elect Donald Trump, who just triumphed in the US presidential election. Their meeting should confirm the strengthening of the alliance.
Facing threats from China, North Korea, and Russia, Japan needs to remain assured of US involvement in its defense, particularly in the event of a Senkaku, Taiwan, or Korean Peninsula emergency. The most important responsibility for PM Ishiba is to direct Trump's attention to Japan, Northeast Asia, and the Indo-Pacific.
Navigating an Uncertain World
Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues. Meanwhile, even North Korean troops have been dispatched to battle Ukrainian forces. PM Ishiba must not forget the sense of crisis that today's Ukraine could well become tomorrow's East Asia. Therefore, Japan must pursue a diplomatic path that will not allow the aggressor Russia to emerge victorious.
The situation in the Middle East is another urgent issue. There is a risk that the fighting could escalate and become a Fifth Mideast War, this time involving Israel and Iran. Officials and companies must expedite the return of Japanese nationals now in Iran and elsewhere in the region and ensure their safety. Japan also needs to be prepared from the perspective of energy supply and demand.
Steady progress regarding the fundamental strengthening of defense capabilities is critical for the nation. Other pressing issues include promoting measures to attract men and women to join the Self-Defense Forces. Currently, the SDF is facing serious recruiting challenges. Tokyo and local governments also need to build airports, ports, and shelters in preparation for any emergencies.
Protecting the Foundation of the Nation
There is concern that the ruling coalition will become preoccupied with short-term management of the Diet. Should that happen, it could accept policies that undermine the fundamentals of the nation and Japanese society without sufficient debate.
In its compromises, the LDP has handed over key posts in the Lower House to the CDP. Three examples are the Budget Committee, the Judicial Affairs Committee, and the Constitution Research Council (CRC).
Yukio Edano, the former head of the CDP, will now serve as CRC chair. However, he is the very person who has long hindered the movement to amend the Constitution. If the discussions within the CRC stall, other parties that are forward-thinking about constitutional reform should proceed on their own.
CDC head Noda has revealed on social media that he is now chairman of the Lower House Judicial Affairs Committee. He also expressed his intent to realize a law allowing married couples to have separate surnames. Moreover, he reportedly said, "It will be very effective in shaking up the LDP."
PM Ishiba and the LDP must never accept such radical changes regarding fundamental issues that affect Japanese families and society.
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Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun
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