Nobukatsu Kanehara 
View of the skyscrapers in Xiamen, China, from Little Kinmen. Shiyu Islet, where Taiwanese troops are stationed, is in the foreground. (©Sankei by Kengo Matsumoto).
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In both 1978 and 2016, hundreds of Chinese fishing boats swarmed the Senkaku Islands, Ishigaki City in Okinawa Prefecture. However, in 2016, the difference was that several armed Chinese government vessels accompanied them. If a Taiwan contingency were to occur these days, however, hostilities would extend to the Senkaku and Sakishima Islands.
Today, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and maritime militia frequently intrude into the waters around the Senkaku Islands. Meanwhile, the Chinese maritime militia is made up of "fishermen" who are armed and combat-trained. They are obligated to support the People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) when called to do so under Chinese law.
In the event of a Taiwan contingency, these vessels would transform into combatants. They would proceed to attack Japan's escort ships and Japan Coast Guard (JCG) patrol vessels with force immediately when the PLA orders them to do so
Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) could only act upon receiving a defense mobilization order. Under the direct strategic command, that would have to come from the prime minister and defense minister. MSDF personnel would engage in combat operations as soldiers. Using force in self-defense constitutes armed conflict between nations. The objective is clear: repel invasions by swiftly destroying enemy forces and neutralizing their combat capabilities. That is the reality of war.
Separate Duties
In contrast, Japan Coast Guard officers operate as law enforcement officers and face strict limitations on weapon use. Under Article 7 of the Police Duties Execution Act, they are only permitted to use weapons of deadly force in legitimate self-defense.
Strict rules apply even when confronting criminals since the state is wielding weapons against individuals who still hold basic human rights. Article 7 stipulates that JCG officers cannot fire unless directly threatened by militia firearms. The difference between the MSDF and the JCG lies not only in the scale of armaments but also in their legal mandates.
Fighting the Chinese Navy would fully occupy the MSDF in a Taiwan contingency. Therefore, handling the CCG or militia near the Senkaku and Sakishima Islands would be impractical for the MSDF. Expecting JCG patrol vessels, a law enforcement agency, to fill this gap is misguided. Law enforcement officials cannot be sent to a battlefield with limitations on their use of force. Just as the Ground Self-Defense Force would never demand the Okinawa Prefectural Police accompany them, the JCG should not be placed in such a situation.
If the aim is to eliminate CCG vessels or militia fishing boats, the MSDF should handle it militarily, leveraging drones and other assets.
Evacuation Risks
There is also the issue of evacuating residents from the Sakishima Islands. The notion of evacuating them by sea after the outbreak of a Taiwan contingency is inherently risky. JCG patrol vessels fall under the defense minister's command once a defense mobilization order is issued. This makes them legitimate military targets for China.
Activities of the JCG during a Taiwan contingency must consider the severe limitations Article 7 of the Police Duties Execution Act imposes. JCG patrol vessels should be redirected to activities like monitoring the northern seas left unattended by the MSDF. Otherwise, capable JCG personnel would face senseless deaths in battle under strict restrictions on weapon use.
About Nobukatsu Kanehara
Nobukatsu Kanehara was the assistant chief cabinet secretary and inaugural deputy secretary general of Japan's National Security Secretariat during the second Shinzo Abe administration. Born in 1959 in Yamaguchi Prefecture, he graduated from the University of Tokyo Faculty of Law in 1981. Thereafter, he joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He held key ministry positions over time, including head of the Japan-US Security Treaty Division and director-general of the Bureau of International Law.
Kanehara retired in 2019 and is currently a special visiting professor at Doshisha University. In 2015, he received the Legion of Honour from the French government. He is also the coauthor of several works, including An Introduction to Security for Japanese Citizens (Nikkei Publishing, 2023), Can You Defeat China? (Sankei Publishing, 2023), and The Nation's Total Strength (Shincho Shinsho, 2024).
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Author: Nobukatsu Kanehara
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