US President-elect Donald Trump (©Reuters).
On January 20, Donald J Trump will become the 47th President of the United States. Having won all the most fiercely contested states in November's presidential election as well as the popular vote, he easily triumphed over the Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris. Therefore, he will likely strive to fulfill his campaign promises, including the large-scale deportation of undocumented immigrants.
Under the banner of "Make America Great Again," the new president will also work to protect and advance US interests in foreign affairs. He is expected to push for bold deals with both allies and antagonistic autocracies. In fact, the world has already begun to make moves with Trump's words and actions in mind.
A Sense of Crisis
Trump's belief that the world is on "the brink of World War III" is not wrong. February will mark the fourth anniversary of the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Also, in the Middle East, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria led to a new power struggle. Now, the confrontation between Israel and Iran is intensifying.
Moreover, it is a widely held view that China is preparing to use force to annex Taiwan by 2027. That would coincide with the end of President Xi Jinping's current term as secretary general of the Chinese Communist Party.
If conflict erupts in a chain reaction in the three regions of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, the interregnum postwar period could be shattered by a major war. It seems fair to compare this situation to the period of the 1930s.
Mr Trump naturally has a penchant for transactional diplomacy, which puts his own country first. However, we hope he will not allow that to cause division among allies and like-minded countries that share with the US the same values of democracy, liberty, and the rule of law.
Allies: Foreign Relations 2.0
Trump has adopted "peace through strength" as his fundamental principle of foreign relations. He has modeled his basic diplomatic principle on the philosophy of former President Ronald Reagan, who led the United States to victory in the Cold War through an arms race with the Soviet Union. However, the US cannot achieve this goal on its own.
In the Ukraine War, North Korea and Iran are providing Russia with military assistance. Meanwhile, China is propping up Russia's sanctions-hit economy. As the United States turns inward, authoritarian powers such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are strengthening their anti-American alliances.
China is also expanding its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than the US has anticipated. Xi Jinping may be taking a cue from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been brandishing Russia's nuclear weapons. China too apparently wants to use nuclear intimidation to prevent the United States from intervening in a Taiwan emergency.
China and Russia together have deployed nuclear weapons that exceed the number of those possessed by the United States. Meanwhile, North Korea and Iran are acquiring technology from Russia. That is allowing them to accelerate their own development of nuclear missiles. Soon, the United States and its allies may find themselves confronted with four autocratic nations joined together as nuclear powers.
Protecting America's Alliances
To meet these challenges, the US must urgently mobilize its military, economic, and technological capabilities to improve its deterrence power. That includes technological advances in the fields of cyberspace and outer space. To accomplish that, it needs to collaborate closely with its allies. That way, it can create a deterrent posture based on an appropriate sharing of defense capabilities among the democratic camp.
Yet, despite this situation, Trump is suddenly applying pressure on Canada, a neighbor and member of the G7 and NATO. He is threatening to raise tariffs on its exports to the United States. America's allies are now wary of becoming targets for the incoming administration.
There are also concerns that Elon Musk, the fabulously successful businessman who has become an advisor to Trump on domestic policy, will vociferously interfere in foreign affairs.
President Trump's new team must not repeat the mistakes of the first Trump administration in which trade negotiations led to a rift with Europe. The present precarious international situation akin to the eve of war does not allow for wedges to be driven among allies.
Guaranteeing Sovereignty and Security
Ukraine, where Trump is seeking an early ceasefire, will be a litmus test for his doctrine of a "new version of peace through strength."
Russia's ability to continue fighting is declining. Ukraine maintains its strong morale, but its people are exhausted under the terror of indiscriminate attacks. European countries are also clearly suffering from aid fatigue.
Trump has been urging Ukraine to enter into negotiations if it wants to receive continued assistance from the US. At the same time, Russia must also agree to a ceasefire. It will probably be threatened with increased sanctions and continued provision of aid to Ukraine if it does not.
Hopes are indeed growing for this kind of mediation diplomacy. However, forcing Ukraine to abandon the territories occupied by Russian troops, as Putin has demanded, would be perilous. That would be tantamount to the US turning its back on the norms of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity that are integral to the international order.
Nor should the risk that it would incite other invasions in Asia or the Middle East be ignored
Trump has chosen retired Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as the lead negotiator and special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg has argued that Ukraine's membership in NATO, which Kyiv seeks for its own security, should be "delayed for a long time."
However, it would be irresponsible for the West to demand that Ukraine forego joining NATO unless it can show how that nation's security would be guaranteed. Can the formation of a ceasefire monitoring force to deter a renewed invasion be left to Europe alone?
Security of Japan's Alliance
Meanwhile, based on its strong alliance with the United States, Japan must maintain close communication with the incoming Trump administration. It is in Japan's interest to help uphold the international order. Active involvement on the part of the Ishiba administration will be needed to help bind together the US with the alliance network.
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(Read the editorial in Japanese.)
Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun
Keywords: editorial, Donald Trump, Trump administration, Keith Kellogg, Ukraine, Europe, Middle East, Taiwan, China, Russia, Middle East, North Korea, nuclear weapons,
