China Plans Dam That Raises Tensions With India

China recently announced its intention to build a massive dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the Tibet Autonomous Region. This massive project could cost a staggering one trillion yuan (approximately $127 billion) and is part of China's 14th Five-Year Plan. In terms of scale, it would surpass its previous major infrastructure projects, including the massive Three Gorges Dam.

India's concern is that the same river water flows into the Northeast Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam (as the Brahmaputra) and then on to Bangladesh. The ties between India and China have hit a rough patch following the Galwan Valley attacks by China in the summer of 2020. These were the first fatal clashes between the two sides in 45 years.

Why Such Huge Dams?

This is due to a host of factors. Electricity generation is only one of them. There are also geopolitical motives since this would give China a bargaining chip when it comes to its ties with India. The project is also an attempt to increase the Chinese stranglehold over Tibet, a region that it annexed by force. It could also be a ploy to deflect attention from problems on the domestic front, especially its economic woes.

India's Concerns

One of the worries is that the Northeastern states of India could face flash floods and on the other hand, another threat is that of water scarcity, depending on when and where China builds the dam. Millions of people in the Northeastern Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam depend on the Brahmaputra for their living. Any dam of this nature could significantly impact the livelihoods of these people.

China could thereby gain significant leverage when it comes to supplying water, especially to Northeastern India. This could be used by China to pressure India on other fronts.

As seen in the recent earthquake along the Tibet-Nepal border, building a dam of this magnitude would be immensely dangerous for the region. Assam could face a real danger as it faced two very big earthquakes in 1897 and 1950.

*Rescue teams conduct search operations following a powerful earthquake. January 7, Shigatse City, Tibet Autonomous Region　(©Xinhua/Kyodo).*

Options?

For India, there are very few options.

One of them is to raise objections through official channels, something which India has already done in the recent few days. Unfortunately, it seems not to have had as much impact as on other occasions.

Putting China on the mat elsewhere could be the trick. A huge number of Chinese companies operate in India and are making a lot of money from the Indian market. Beijing should be clearly told that these companies could see a fall in their profits in case in case China continues with its shenanigans when it comes to the Yarlung Tsangpo (or the Brahmaputra) river.

The ultimate solution lies in signing a treaty with China on the sharing of river waters, on the likes of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan. In the case of the Yarlung Tsangpo or the Brahmaputra, India could also bring Bangladesh into the picture since the same river flows into Bangladesh.

Taking a Firm Stance

In a statement, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs noted:

"We have seen the information released by Xinhua on December 25, 2024, regarding a hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China. As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert level as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory. The Chinese side has been urged to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas. We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests."

New Delhi would also need to take up the matter with countries like Myanmar, Laos, and other Southeast Asian nations. Like India, these nations also have rivers that begin in China. India should work with these countries to ensure that China shares river waters equally with these lower riparian countries.

Decoding China's Actions

What Japan needs to learn from this episode is that when it comes to its "national interests," China will stop at nothing. While Beijing has been sending overtures to Tokyo of late, this could be a way of hedging against Donald Trump coming back to the Oval Office.

Already in his New Year speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked that "the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification."

India will have to put its concerns over the massive project in a forthright manner with China. It may also need to involve the Americans in the same given the fact that the Indian PM Narendra Modi and President-elect Trump of the US share close ties. New Delhi also needs to factor in that given that President-elect Trump will be taking office in the US very soon, it will be in China's interests not to ruffle all feathers at once.

Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah

Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal.