LDP Support Recovery Likely Under Takaichi, Survey Finds

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Professor Satoshi Fujii's laboratory at Kyoto University conducted an online survey from September 24 to 26. The team polled 2,000 current or former supporters who have backed the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) at least once in a national election since 2019.

It found that half of them voted for other parties in the recent Upper House election, with the most common reason given that the LDP "doesn't value ordinary people."

Looking ahead to the October 4 leadership race, the researchers project that party support would likely recover under Sanae Takaichi. Under Shinjiro Koizumi or Yoshimasa Hayashi, however, based on the survey responses, they expect the decline to accelerate.

In July 2025's House of Councillors nationwide proportional vote, 50.2% of current or former LDP supporters backed the LDP. 49.8% chose other parties. The main destinations (share of all respondents) were:

Democratic Party for the People (DPP): 11.2%
Sanseito: 9.6%
Constitutional Democratic Party: 6.2%
Other parties: 5.3%
Japan Conservative Party: 5.1%,
Ishin no Kai: 4.3%.

Why LDP Supporters Walked Away

There were 915 respondents who had voted for the LDP at least once in the past six years but did not back the party in the July Upper House election. Multiple responses were allowed. Among their answers, the most common reason given was that the LDP "doesn't value ordinary people" (50.0%).

Other frequently cited reasons for not backing the party were Shigeru Ishiba becoming party president (34.6%), repeated tax hikes (33.9%), and a perceived "pro-China" tilt (30.3%). Fumio Kishida’s presidency was also listed in the top ten (20.1%).

The survey focused on 518 of the 915 correspondents, all of whom had voted for the LDP at least once in the past six years. In July's Upper House election, however, they chose the DPP, Sanseito, or the Japan Conservative Party.

They were then asked:

"Which of the five candidates, as LDP president, would make you vote for the party in the next national election?" The results are as follows.

Based on these responses, the laboratory calculated the following estimated voting rates among the group: Takaichi 63%, Koizumi 26%, Hayashi 20%, Kobayashi 31%, and Motegi 21%.

Leadership Scenarios

Drawing on this analysis, the research group concludes that an LDP led by Sanae Takaichi would likely retain current supporters. Furthermore, it would win back many former ones, putting the party on a recovery path. Under Shinjiro Koizumi or Yoshimasa Hayashi, by contrast, lost support would likely not return, and the drift away from the LDP would accelerate.

In an interview with The Sankei Shimbun about the survey's methodology, Professor Fujii said it was conducted "with the rigor expected of university research." He added that its "reliability is high."

Fujii argued that LDP supporters favor expansionary fiscal policy and conservative stances, positions associated with Takaichi. By contrast, austerity and less conservative positions linked to Koizumi are unpopular.

"The pattern is pronounced," he said, "and it is unlikely that our forecasts for party fortunes after the leadership decision will be overturned."